This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
A pedestrian week got me back to .500, but actually I went 3-0-1 on my best bets and 0-4 on my coin flips, so I suppose I had a pretty good feel for that slate.
This week, I particularly like the Panthers, Redskins, Ravens, Eagles and Niners.
I had an especially tough time with Vikings-Bengals, Giants-Lions and Chargers-Raiders, all coin flips.
EARLY GAMES
Dolphins -3 at Bills
EJ Manuel is out, but it's cold in Buffalo, and I think the Bills can slug it out just fine with the Dolphins at home. Take the points.
Bills 20 - 19
Saints +3 at Panthers
The Saints are 7-0 at home, 3-4 on the road. It's hard to see what's essentially a league average team only warranting three in Carolina. Back the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 20
Cowboys -3 at Redskins
It's hard for me to lay points with the Cowboys even against a team as bad as the Redskins. Moreover, Kirk Cousins seems to have the offense in a better rhythm, and he should have a good game against Dallas' soft defense. Back Washington.
Redskins 27 - 24
Buccaneers +5.5 at Rams
This seems like a decent buy-low, sell-high scenario with the Bucs getting crushed by the Niners and the Rams rolling against the Saints. Back Tampa.
Rams 23 - 20
Browns +2 at Jets
The Browns are the sexier team with the downfield passing game, but the Jets at home against a below-average squad are usually a good bet. Back
A pedestrian week got me back to .500, but actually I went 3-0-1 on my best bets and 0-4 on my coin flips, so I suppose I had a pretty good feel for that slate.
This week, I particularly like the Panthers, Redskins, Ravens, Eagles and Niners.
I had an especially tough time with Vikings-Bengals, Giants-Lions and Chargers-Raiders, all coin flips.
EARLY GAMES
Dolphins -3 at Bills
EJ Manuel is out, but it's cold in Buffalo, and I think the Bills can slug it out just fine with the Dolphins at home. Take the points.
Bills 20 - 19
Saints +3 at Panthers
The Saints are 7-0 at home, 3-4 on the road. It's hard to see what's essentially a league average team only warranting three in Carolina. Back the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 20
Cowboys -3 at Redskins
It's hard for me to lay points with the Cowboys even against a team as bad as the Redskins. Moreover, Kirk Cousins seems to have the offense in a better rhythm, and he should have a good game against Dallas' soft defense. Back Washington.
Redskins 27 - 24
Buccaneers +5.5 at Rams
This seems like a decent buy-low, sell-high scenario with the Bucs getting crushed by the Niners and the Rams rolling against the Saints. Back Tampa.
Rams 23 - 20
Browns +2 at Jets
The Browns are the sexier team with the downfield passing game, but the Jets at home against a below-average squad are usually a good bet. Back New York.
Jets 20 - 17
Colts +6.5 at Chiefs
It's probably time to sell the Chiefs high again, even though their offense really has come around. I think Indy will hang with them and has a good chance to win this outright. Back the Colts.
Colts 27 - 24
Vikings +7 at Bengals
Going into Cincinnati is a tall order, but so was going into Baltimore, and the Vikings nearly took the Ravens down before crushing the Eagles at home. The Bengals should win this game, but I think the Vikings hang around. Back Minnesota.
Bengals 23 - 17
Broncos -10.5 at Texans
The Texans have been killing me all year, but I have to take them here out of principle (like Ralph Fiennes at 2:22 of this clip.) The Broncos cannot possibly be the value. Back Houston.
Broncos 30 - 20
Titans -5.5 at Jaguars
Do I have to pick this game? I suppose I'll lay the points with Tennessee which like Buffalo last week is basically a league-average team.
Titans 27 - 20
LATE GAMES
Cardinals +10.5 at Seahawks
I used to back the Seahawks at home without a second thought, but this is a huge line against a solid Arizona team. Take the points.
Seahawks 19 - 13
Giants +9 at Lions
I keep picking the Giants and losing, and at this point it's not bias as I don't care whether they lose or by how much. I want to take Detroit here, but the Giants have to be the value, don't they? Maybe not. Back Detroit.
Lions 27 - 13
Raiders +10 at Chargers
I knew the Raiders were a terrible call last week, and the Chargers should run roughshod over that defense like everyone else has. But for some reason the Raiders always seem to play them tough, so I'll go contrarian, hold my nose and take Oakland.
Chargers 29 - 21
Steelers + 4.5* at Packers
Of course, I made up this line - I assume it would be seven with Aaron Rodgers, two or three without him. I'll take the Steelers who I'd expect to show up.
*made-up line
Packers 27 - 23
Patriots +2.5 at Ravens
The Ravens are tough at home, always seem to play the Patriots tough and get to face them without Rob Gronkowski. Moreover, the Pats' defense is falling apart. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 26 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bears +3 at Eagles
The Bears offense is still top notch, but I don't trust their defense against Philly, and Jay Cutler is more likely to make mistakes than Nick Foles. Back the Eagles.
Eagles 31 - 27
MONDAY NIGHT
Falcons +12 at 49ers
The 49ers always seem to crush doormats, and Atlanta qualifies. I'm not sure how high this line would have to be for me to take the Falcons, but 12 isn't it. Back San Francisco.
49ers 33 - 13
Last week we went 8-7-1 to go 107-107-10 on the year. Last year we went 121-129-6 on the regular season. From 1999-2012 we've gone 1,810-1,641 (52.4%), not including ties.
