This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 8-8 last week, going 2-2 on the games I liked best and 2-2 on coin flips. It could not have been a more 8-8 week.
This week, we're dealing with disparate motivation levels and in some cases murky coaching decisions, but Week 17 also provides an opportunity to fade assumptions that might not be true and profit off uncertainty.
The easiest picks for me were the Jets, Ravens, Colts and Broncos. The toughest were the Panthers, Rams, Giants, 49ers and Dolphins.
EARLY GAMES
Texans +3 at Titans
It's the Texans having clinched against the Matt Cassel Titans. I pegged this line at three, so I could go either way, but I'll take the points. Back Houston.
Texans 17 - 16
Bills -3.5 at Jets
The EJ Manuel Bills are laying more than a field goal on the road? I'll take the Jets.
Jets 20 - 17
Ravens +2.5 at Bengals
Neither has anything for which to play, but I think the Ravens are probably the better team. Take the points.
Ravens 23 - 17
Jaguars +4.5 at Colts
I like fading bad teams off a long-awaited win. Take the Colts who roll here at home.
Colts 33 - 17
Cowboys +4 at Eagles
This week, I expect the Cowboys to rest their starters for a good portion of this game. Maybe Tony Romo plays and lights up the Eagles, but he's got to be rusty, and this isn't a great spot for him, especially if he's with a
I went 8-8 last week, going 2-2 on the games I liked best and 2-2 on coin flips. It could not have been a more 8-8 week.
This week, we're dealing with disparate motivation levels and in some cases murky coaching decisions, but Week 17 also provides an opportunity to fade assumptions that might not be true and profit off uncertainty.
The easiest picks for me were the Jets, Ravens, Colts and Broncos. The toughest were the Panthers, Rams, Giants, 49ers and Dolphins.
EARLY GAMES
Texans +3 at Titans
It's the Texans having clinched against the Matt Cassel Titans. I pegged this line at three, so I could go either way, but I'll take the points. Back Houston.
Texans 17 - 16
Bills -3.5 at Jets
The EJ Manuel Bills are laying more than a field goal on the road? I'll take the Jets.
Jets 20 - 17
Ravens +2.5 at Bengals
Neither has anything for which to play, but I think the Ravens are probably the better team. Take the points.
Ravens 23 - 17
Jaguars +4.5 at Colts
I like fading bad teams off a long-awaited win. Take the Colts who roll here at home.
Colts 33 - 17
Cowboys +4 at Eagles
This week, I expect the Cowboys to rest their starters for a good portion of this game. Maybe Tony Romo plays and lights up the Eagles, but he's got to be rusty, and this isn't a great spot for him, especially if he's with a bunch of backups. Lay the wood.
Eagles 27 - 17
Bears +5 at Vikings
This strikes me as a game where the Vikings might finally show up and remind us of who they were early in the season, but I wouldn't bet on it. Take the points.
Vikings 23 - 20
Panthers +6 at Buccaneers
I said the Panthers were checked out against the Redskins, and they weren't, then foolishly backed them against the Falcons, and Cam Newton went 18 for 43. Either way I'm screwed here, but give me the points.
Buccaneers 24 - 20
Browns +6 at Steelers
The Browns are getting six against the Steelers backups. Normally, I'd fade the 1-14 team coming off their miracle first win, but this is too much. Take the points.
Steelers 19 - 16
Patriots -9.5 at Dolphins
The Patriots are still playing for home field advantage, while the Dolphins are locked into the No. 6 seed. Still, I'd think Adam Gase wants to test his team, and this is a huge line in Miami. Take the points.
Patriots 30 - 23
LATE GAMES
Giants +8 at Redskins
The Redskins are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Giants are locked in. But Ben McAdoo strikes me as the type to play his starters longer than he probably should. Take the points.
Redskins 24 - 17
Saints +6.5 at Falcons
The Falcons are playing for a first-round bye, but I expect the Saints to show up and keep this competitive. Take the points.
Falcons 33 - 27
Cardinals -6 at Rams
The Rams have arrived. You can now consider them in the same strata as the Jets, 49ers, Jaguars and Browns. Still, in a home division game, this is a sizable line. Take Los Angeles.
Cardinals 20 - 16
Chiefs -5.5 at Chargers
The Chiefs are playing for a first-round bye while the Chargers to clear the stench of a loss to the Browns. I'll take the points.
Chiefs 26 - 23
Seahawks -9.5 at 49ers
The Seahawks haven't remotely looked like a Super Bowl contender the last several weeks, and this is a big line on the road against anyone. I made this line nine, so I'll hold my nose and take the Niners.
Seahawks 24 - 16
Raiders +1.5 at Broncos
I'm a Raiders and Derek Carr hater, but it's unfortunate they didn't have a chance to prove me wrong. Still, I'll take Denver at home against Matt McGloin.
Broncos 20 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers -3.5 at Lions
I made this line three, so I suppose I'm stuck with the Lions. The Packers are so much more deserving of the playoff spot and more dangerous if they get in, but as Clint Eastwood said in "Unforgiven" as he prepared to shoot Little Bill (Gene Hackman) "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it." Take the points.
Packers 27 - 24
I went 8-8 in Week 16 to go 115-120-5 on the season. I'm 3-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
