Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 4

Last week I went 14-2 by my criterion (I should have taken the Texans and Cowboys), but it was a weak 14-2, as even my best bet, the Chargers, was lukewarm at best, and I exaggerated slight leans on a few other games. By conventional scoring, I went 7-9, lost my best bet and went 2-3 in the LVH Supercontest.

One of the tenets to which I subscribe is that while it's crucially important to trust your instincts 100 percent and grade youself only according to how in tune you are with them, there are many occasions (the majority) where you don't have strong preferences, instincts or opinions, and in those cases, you should accept your limitations. The way to do that is embrace not knowing and either guess (and acknowledge that's what you're doing) or outsource to someone you think has a better than guessing chance of being right.

So my handicapping philosophy - radical subjectivity - works well for games where things jump out at me, but not so well where I have a weak or non-existent preference. It's one of the perils of picking all 16 games, but I'll do my best to note where I'm guessing, and where I'm making a strong pick.

Teams I liked best this week are: Packers, Ravens, Bengals and 49ers. I'll post my LVH picks in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Bears +7 at Packers

I love home favorites on the short week. The only thing missing is Jay Cutler going to his house of horrors, but Mike Glennon will do. Lay the wood.

Packers 33 - 16

LONDON GAME

Saints -2.5 vs. Dolphins

The Dolphins laid an egg Sunday in New York, but I'll write that off for now. I think this game should be a pick 'em at worst, so give me the points.

Dolphins 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Panthers +9 at Patriots

I'm 0-6 on the Patriots and Panthers combined this year. Cam Newton is just not a good touch passer, so the new short-pass-catching personnel is not ideal for him. The Patriots defense isn't great, though, and while Tom Brady's been good, the offense stalls for stretches. I suppose I'll take the Patriots at home against a coach who punted on 4th-and-5 from the Saints 35 last week down 24-6. Lay the points.

Patriots 31 - 17

Rams +7 at Cowboys

I don't know what to make of the Cowboys. Dak Prescott is great, but the offensive line isn't what it was the last few years, and the defense is average. I don't feel strongly about this, but I'm inclined to take the points.

Cowboys 26 - 20

Lions +3* at Vikings

*made-up line

I'm not sure why we can't get a line here. It's not like Sam Bradford is Joe Montana, and Case Keenum might not be bad. In any event, I made one up. No matter who plays quarterback, I like the Vikings who are better on both sides of the ball so far. Lay the points.

Vikings 27 - 17

Titans -1.5 at Texans

J.J. Watt looks healthy again, and DeShaun Watson handled the big stage well last week. Give me the home dog.

Texans 20 - 19

Jaguars -3.5 at Jets

The Jaguars were awfully impressive in London, both defensively and because Blake Bortles didn't make any mistakes. The Jets showed up last week as a home dog, and it's obvious they're not tanking on the field, irrespective of the offseason personnel moves. A 50/50 call, but I'll take the Jets.

Jaguars 16 - 13

Bengals -3 at Browns

The Bengals should have won at Green Bay, and I think they take it to the Browns who have a shaky rookie QB, a bad WR corps and a below-average defense. Lay the wood.

Bengals 30 - 13

Steelers -3 at Ravens

The Steelers are bad on the road, but the line doesn't seem to adjust. The Ravens were a no-show in London, but I love them as a home dog against a division rival. Take the points.

Ravens 23 - 17

Bills +8 at Falcons

The Falcons are a good team, but the Bills are game, and I like them getting more than a touchdown. Take the points.

Falcons 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Giants +3 at Buccaneers

The Giants seemed to find something in the second half with Eli Manning getting the ball out quickly, and the receivers making plays. I'm not sold on the Bucs as being any good, either. Take the points.

Giants 27 - 20

Eagles +1 at Chargers

The Chargers have no home field advantage whatsoever, so consider this as a neutral field game. The Giants exposed the Eagles back four last week, and the Chargers have the weapons to do the same. I'm concerned about morale, but I'll take the home team.

Chargers 28 - 24

49ers +7 at Cardinals

The Cardinals are probably the better team, but I don't like them off a short week and laying seven against a game and well-rested Niners squad. Take the points.

49ers 23 - 20

Raiders +3 at Broncos

The Raiders looked so bad last week, I'm tempted to buy them low, but Denver is not a great place to get well. I'm 50/50 on this one, but give me the Raiders.

Raiders 19 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Colts +13 at Seahawks

The Seahawks haven't earned this kind of favorite status yet, and the Colts are better with Jacoby Brissett than Scott Tolzien. Even so, I feel like laying the points here. Russell Wilson got the passing game going in the second half, the Seattle defense is still elite. Lay the points.

Seahawks 27 - 10

MONDAY NIGHT

Redskins +7 at Chiefs

The Redskins defense flat out dominated at home against the Raiders, but the Chiefs at home is a taller order. I suppose I'm taking the points, but this is a close call. Back Washington.

Chiefs 23 - 20

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I went 7-9 against the spread in Week 3 to put me at 22-24-1 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH Supercontest picks to go 6-9 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.