This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Overall, by conventional scoring, I went 6-7-2, won my best bet, the Vikings, and went 2-2-1 in the SuperContest.
This week is an odd one. I don't feel great about any one game, but I feel okay about the slate overall. I'll make my best bet in the Staff Picks and post my LVH picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Dolphins +3 at Ravens
What an ugly matchup. Joe Flacco has been abominable (5.3 YPA) thus far, and his top three receivers are questionable during a short week. The Dolphins have oddly been down 17-0 and 28-14 the last two weeks and come back to win both times. Matt Moore isn't a downgrade from Jay Cutler, but a short week on the road against a tough Ravens defense is a tall order. Usually, I take the home team during the short week, and Justin Tucker could be the difference in a low-scoring game, but in my heart of hearts, I believe the Dolphins are the better team, and they're getting three
Overall, by conventional scoring, I went 6-7-2, won my best bet, the Vikings, and went 2-2-1 in the SuperContest.
This week is an odd one. I don't feel great about any one game, but I feel okay about the slate overall. I'll make my best bet in the Staff Picks and post my LVH picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Dolphins +3 at Ravens
What an ugly matchup. Joe Flacco has been abominable (5.3 YPA) thus far, and his top three receivers are questionable during a short week. The Dolphins have oddly been down 17-0 and 28-14 the last two weeks and come back to win both times. Matt Moore isn't a downgrade from Jay Cutler, but a short week on the road against a tough Ravens defense is a tall order. Usually, I take the home team during the short week, and Justin Tucker could be the difference in a low-scoring game, but in my heart of hearts, I believe the Dolphins are the better team, and they're getting three points. Back Miami.
Dolphins 17 - 16
LONDON GAME
Vikings -9.5 vs. Browns
The Browns kept it close at home against the Titans, but the Vikings are much better than the Titans, and losing Joe Thomas is only going to expose Cody Kessler or whatever below-average QB they roll out even more. Lay the wood.
Vikings 24 - 9
EARLY GAMES
Bears +9 at Saints
The Bears defense might be legitimate, and we know they can run the ball. But I'm not sure hiding the quarterback in New Orleans is an option, and the Saints defense is at least better than in recent seasons. Give me the Saints.
Saints 24 - 13
Falcons -4.5 at Jets
I did a double-take when I saw this line and had to check a second source. Really, the Falcons are laying 4.5 on the road? Part of me is suspicious and wants to go the contrarian route, but while I think the Jets are smoke and mirrors, I also think Atlanta might be a broken team. Take the points.
Falcons 20 - 19
Panthers +2 at Buccaneers
I've mis-timed the Panthers quite a bit this year, and I probably overestimate Cam Newton somewhat based on his ceiling. Still, I think the defense is pretty good, and Newton should show up against a beatable defense. Take the points.
Panthers 24 - 23
49ers +13 at Eagles
The Eagles should kill the 49ers, but San Francisco usually shows up, last week's blowout notwithstanding. My instinct is to take the points, especially with Philly coming off a big Monday night win over the division-rival Redskins.
Eagles 27 - 20
Raiders +2.5 at Bills
I expect this to be a back and forth game with whoever has the ball last likely driving for the winning score. As such I'll take the points.
Raiders 27 - 26
Colts +10 at Bengals
The Colts are a bad team, and the Bengals are in a good spot to bounce back here. Lay the wood.
Bengals 27 - 13
Chargers +7.5 at Patriots
The Patriots defense has played better of late, and the Chargers offense isn't great, but I'll take the points here. The Chargers defense should keep it close enough, and Philip Rivers will move the ball.
Patriots 24 - 20
LATE GAMES
Texans +5.5 at Seahawks
This should be a good test for Deshaun Watson who has largely destroyed weak pass defenses (Patriots, Titans, Chiefs, Browns.) I like the Seahawks at home who seem to be hitting their stride at the season's midway point. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 28 - 17
Cowboys -2.5 at Redskins
I'm not sure why this line isn't closer to Cowboys plus three rather than minus 2.5. Their offense is good, but their defense isn't, and Washington should be able to keep up. Take the points.
Redskins 27 - 24
SUNDAY NIGHT
Steelers -3 at Lions
The Steelers defense looks legitimately good to me, so the only way I see the Lions winning is if road Ben Roethlisberger shows up and throws two or three picks. But the Steelers have been smarter of late, and it's been all Le'Veon Bell, reducing that risk. Lay the wood.
Steelers 24 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Broncos +7.5 at Chiefs
Andy Reid with extra time to prep is usually an easy call, but this is a big line against a team that still has an elite defense. Take the points.
Chiefs 23 - 19
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I went 6-7-2 against the spread in Week 7 to put me at 55-47-4 on the season. I went 2-2-1 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 18-16-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
