Beating the Book: Rams Roll, Jags' Slide Continues + Full NFL Week ATS 15 Picks and Predictions

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Beating the Book!

After going 6-7 ATS in Week 13, we turned things around last week and have scratched and clawed our way back to a .500 mark on the season. With four more weeks to go, what do you say we build on that momentum?

While we missed big on games like Detroit-Chicago and Houston-New York, we emerged from Week 14 with a 9-5-1 ATS mark, including hitting our best bet (SF -10.5) to move to 10-4 on those for the year. Thankfully, we're now done with bye weeks, so we'll have full, 16-game slates the rest of the way.

Looking ahead to Week 15, we kick off the slate with a BANGER of a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Raiders. Fittingly, that one kicks off a spree of three straight games that will feature exclusively backup quarterbacks. That's right, it won't be until Saturday night – our fourth game of the week – that we'll see a true starting quarterback on the field. Unfortunately, that's become a hallmark of the 2023 NFL season, and we'll continue to see a slew of replacement QBs on the Sunday slate, including a possible Will Levis vs. Davis Mills showdown in Nashville.

For the most part, the Week 15 board is littered with narrow spreads, but the 49ers are 13.5-point favorites on the road at Arizona. Miami is the next-biggest favorite (-8.5 vs. NYJ), while the Chiefs are giving 8.0 points to the Pats as they look to bounce back from their latest offensive letdown against Buffalo.

You can find my thoughts on that game, as well as the entire Week 14 slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 9-5-1 ATS; 10-5 SU; best bet won (SF -10.5)

On the season: 101-101-6 ATS, 130-78 SU; 10-4 best bet

Best calls of Week 14:

• Rarely do I ever pick against Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead, but this is a bad spot for the Chiefs with Buffalo coming in motivated and off of a bye week.
• If Lawrence does play, he'll obviously give them a much better chance than C.J. Beathard, who immediately fumbled on his first play Monday night. Considering the Jags' complete absence of a running game, a Beathard start is close to an automatic loss – even with Joe Flacco starting for the Browns. Either way, give me Cleveland to win and cover at home. Given the Jags' current state, this is not a good matchup.

Worst calls of Week 14:

• While this is a clearly diminished version of the Titans, it's still a team that wants to dictate tempo and control the clock. I'm not sure that'll be an option against Miami, which should be able to throw all over the NFL's 29th-ranked passing defense. Give the Dolphins to keep it rolling and pour some gasoline on the Tyreek Hill MVP narrative.
• The Texans are down Tank Dell, a crushing blow to their explosive passing game, but I still like CJ Stroud and Co. to consistently move the ball and generate some chunk plays. Keeping Stroud upright after a five-sack game last week is a concern, but we'll trust the Texans to cover the 4.5 on the road.

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Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)

Alrighty then. Here we go. The first of our triple-header of backup quarterbacks takes us to Vegas for yet another TNF banger. The Raiders failed to score a single point on Minnesota last week but do get the benefit of facing an Easton Stick-led Chargers offense that will also be down Keenan Allen, who's battling a heel injury.

Any hopes of the Chargers salvaging a Wild Card berth are officially done, and while the Raiders aren't exactly firing on all cylinders – keep an eye on Josh Jacobs' status – they should be able to tee off on Stick and find a way to win a low-scoring game at home.

The pick: Raiders 17 – Chargers 13

 Saturday Games

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0)

Minnesota erupted for three points in last week's win over Vegas and will now go with Nick Mullens at quarterback after a third straight underwhelming performance by Joshua Dobbs. Credit to the Vikings for finding a way to get to 7-6, but the offense has produced 33 total points over the last three weeks, and it's tough to imagine Mullens being a significant upgrade.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are running hot after back-to-back Jake Browning-led wins over Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The defense remains a concern, but Cincy's ground game appears to be back on track, thanks in part to the emergence of Chase Brown as a change-of-pace option behind Joe Mixon.

With Justin Jefferson back in the mix for Minnesota, the Vikings should be able to make this a close game. I don't want to veer too hard into the Browing narrative, but he's clearly gaining confidence and Cincinnati has better talent around him. Give me the Bengals to win, cover and continue to force their way into the AFC Wild Card picture.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Vikings 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

The Saturday afternoon game brings yet another backup QB vs. backup QB matchup, this time pitting Mitch Trubisky against Gardner Minshew. Both teams are coming off of disastrous showings in Week 14, and both absolutely need this game for Wild Card purposes.

On Thursday night, Pittsburgh managed just 264 yards of total offense against the Pats, but perhaps more concerning is the fact that it gave up 21 points and 222 passing yards to an offense that hadn't reached those thresholds since Week 7.

In many ways, the Colts have entered the Falcons Zone, where you have no idea what to expect week to week. Honestly, they've probably been there since the moment Anthony Richardson went down. The rushing attack has been a disaster of late, and that's unlikely to change this week, so once again the game will be in the hands of Minshew. That may not be the most inspiring sentence, but if nothing else the Colts will take chances and likely rip off a few big plays, while the Steelers haven't shown much of that capability.

We're walking a thin line, but give me the Colts to overcome the usual 2-to-3 devastating Minshew mistakes to pull out a one-point win. Pittsburgh covers at home, however.

The pick: Colts 21 – Steelers 20

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4.0)

Fun game to close out the Saturday slate. After coming up short against Houston in Week 13, the Broncos bounced back in LA last week, but Justin Herbert's early exit was a significant factor. Still, the Broncos' mid-season turnaround remains one of the stories of the year, and a win here would go a long way toward helping them secure a Wild Card spot, as they finish out with matchups against the Pats, Chargers and Raiders.

On the other side, the luster is starting to wear off of the Lions, who managed just 127 passing yards against Chicago in an ugly 28-13 loss last week. Detroit's issues on defense since the bye have been well-documented, and while the offense remains dangerous, things tend to snowball for the Lions if they fall behind or lose momentum.

Returning home after two road games should help, however, as should catching the Broncos on the third leg of a road swing. We're approaching this one with caution, but I like this as a spot for Detroit to come out aggressive against a Denver defense that ranks 27th in pressure rate. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off of a straight-up loss.

The pick: Lions 27 – Broncos 21

Sunday Early Games

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3.0)

Last week, we pulled off the unthinkable: we correctly picked an Atlanta Falcons game. Stay tuned for updates on when I'll be raising a banner in my office. On a slightly more serious note, this is who the Falcons are. They out-gained Tampa by almost 150 yards, allowed only 142 yards to Baker Mayfield, and Kyle Pitts even caught a long touchdown… and they still found a way to lose. 

The good news for Atlanta is they match up against the 1-12 Panthers, who continue to look toothless on offense on a weekly basis. Carolina did pile up more than 200 rushing yards on New Orleans, but that was offset by a disastrous afternoon for Bryce Young, who was sacked four times and completed only 13 passes for 137 yards.

Knowing Atlanta, they will absolutely find a way to allow Carolina to hang around, but until proven otherwise, we can't trust the Panthers to actually capitalize. More than anything, I like the U35.0.

The pick: Falcons 17 – Panthers 13

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Coming off of back-to-back losses, the Browns got a huge win at home against a sloppy Jags team that handed over four turnovers to offset three by Cleveland. While the Browns may not have the highest ceiling, they've found some much-needed stability with Joe Flacco, who threw for 307 yards, including three TDs of 30+ yards, last week.

Cleveland gets the benefit of another home game, but this is a tricky spot against a Bears outfit that's won back-to-back games over division rivals. Chicago's defense – particularly against the run – has continued to improve as the season goes along, and the Bears have allowed just two 100-yard rushing days – both to Detroit, ironically – since Week 3. 

That means this will be another game that could rest on the arm of Flacco, which may not be a bad thing. The question is whether the veteran can limit turnovers against a Chicago defense that's forced 11 over the last three weeks. On paper, this is a game the Browns' defense should be able to control, especially if they're able to generate pressure on Justin Fields, who's been sacked at least three times in all but one start this season. 

We'll side with the Browns to win by a field goal outright, but the Bears can cover with the hook.

The pick: Browns 23 – Bears 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Massive game in the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay outlasted Atlanta to, for now at least, take the top spot in the NFC South, where the top three teams all sit at 6-7. Credit the Bucs' somewhat-possibly-improved running game for helping seal the win on an afternoon when Baker Mayfield failed to reach 200 yards for the third straight week. After topping 100 yards on the ground only once through their first 10 games, the Bucs have run for at least 125 yard in three straight.

Meanwhile, Green Bay walked right into a trap game and allowed the Giants to rack up 200-plus rushing yards en route to an upset victory.

The Packers are a tricky team to evaluate right now, but in hindsight it's even more clear that they never deserved to be 6.5-point favorites on the road. Injuries continue to hamper the Packers, and whether or not they win this game could hinge on the statuses of Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Jaire Alexander and Quay Walker, who all sat out Monday night.

It's also worth noting that Green Bay committed three killer turnovers on top of Jordan Love playing one of his worst first halves of the year. Credit to Love for finding his way in the second half, but Monday night was a reminder that he's still very much in-development. 

If the injury report breaks Green Bay's way – particularly regarding Jones and Watson – this is a game the Packers should win. But either way, I don't know that we can trust this team to win by more than a field goal.

The pick: Packers 23 – Buccaneers 20

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)

Three days ago, the look-ahead on this game was Miami -12.0 (it was up to 13.5 earlier in December), but the number has moved in favor of the Jets, both in response to Week 14, as well as the potential absence of Tyreek Hill. We likely won't get a firm answer on Hill until much later in the week, but as of publication Mike McDaniel wasn't tipping his hand.

What we saw on Monday night against Tennessee was clear and obvious: Miami is nowhere near the same offense when Hill is not on the field. It's also not the same offense when Tua Tagovailoa doesn't have elite protection. 

Miami's three touchdowns on the night came via a defensive tackle pick-six and two drives of seven and 12 yards, respectively, following Tennessee turnovers. Credit to Mike Vrabel for having his defense ready without Jeffery Simmons, but it was nonetheless a concerning showing for the Dolphins, who struggled in the red zone. On the other side, Miami allowed 5.9 yards per play to Tennessee, including two long, suspiciously easy touchdown drives late in the game after going up two scores and seemingly locking it up.

Without knowing Hill's status, this is a difficult game to handicap, but it's fair to assume the star wideout could at least be limited. With that in mind, we'll take the Jets to hang around and cover, provided Zach Wilson can avoid the killer mistakes.

The pick: Dolphins 26 – Jets 19

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-6.0)

In a season marred by so many quarterback injuries, the silver lining is we end up with stories like Tommy DeVito. At this point, he's officially reached peak meme status. It's hard to fathom where we even go from there. 

Egregious Italian stereotypes aside, DeVito has, at the very least, proven that he can mostly avoid mistakes and find ways to beat flawed teams like Green Bay, Washington and New England. The Saints are absolutely a flawed team, but they should be much better-prepared for DeVito than the Packers were. Not only did DeVito make some huge throws, including a dot to Wan'Dale Robinson to seal a short field goal attempt, but he also racked up 71 rushing yards on 10 carries.

With that said, the Giants are playing with nothing to lose right now and could quietly enter the fringes of the Wild Card conversation with a win. I expect the Saints to limit DeVito, but New Orleans has struggled against the run all season, so this could be a good spot for the Giants and Saquon Barkley to try to limit possessions and hang tight in what should be a low-scoring game.

Saints find a way to win, but I do not trust this team – or any team in the NFC South, for that matter – to cover 6.0 points.

The pick: Saints 21 – Giants 17

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

We'll start with this: I completely missed on the Texans last week. Even without Tank Dell, I thought this offense would be able to do enough to get to 20-to-23 points and take care of business against the Jets. Not only was the offense a disaster, but the Houston defense allowed Zach Wilson to lead six scoring drives in the second half alone after both teams combined for 11 consecutive punts before halftime.

Of course, Stroud landed in concussion protocol Sunday night and remains there as of Wednesday. The hope is that he could be cleared before Sunday, but that feels like a 50/50 proposition, at best. Beyond that, Nico Collins departed last week's loss with a calf injury, though Dalton Schultz does appear to be trending in the right direction.

This line would imply that Stroud is not playing. If that's the case, and we're back to Davis Mills Mode, I like Tennessee to win and cover at home. If Stroud is back, we'll re-assess, but this is a very dangerous spot for Houston.

The pick: Titans 23 – Texans 17

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (+8.0)

I refuse to ever enter full-on panic mode as long as the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, but they've now lost four out of six in what's easily been the most concerning stretch of his tenure in KC. Seeing the Chiefs continue to come up short in late-game situations is jarring, to say the least, but even more jarring was witnessing Mahomes' frustrations publicly boil over for the first time.

We can quibble about offsides calls all we want, but the reality is Kansas City has scored 21 or fewer points in six of its last eight and failed to break 20 points in any of its four recent losses. The Chiefs' offense makes everything look difficult and is even struggling in the red zone, where they've typically cleaned up.

On a more positive note, the Chiefs get a chance to take their frustrations out on a very, very bad Patriots team. Sure, last week's win over the Steelers was a nice surprise, but you don't get too much credit in my book for finding a way to beat Mitch Trubisky. 

If there was every a time for a take out our frustrations game for KC, this would be it. If nothing else, we should get an answer as to whether the Chiefs are still capable of a game like that.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Patriots 9

Sunday Afternoon Games

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+13.5)

The Niners' three-game blip in the middle season is starting to feel like a distant, distant memory. When healthy, this is clearly the best team in the NFL and one that tends not to show mercy to lesser opponents. The Cardinals come in off of a bye and get this game at home, but it's hard to imagine the 31st-ranked Arizona defense offering much resistance to San Francisco's deep arsenal of weapons.

With all due respect to Kyler Murray, we're not going to overthink this one. Niners win by at least 14 points for the eighth time this season.

The pick: 49ers 33 – Cardinals 13

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Like Arizona, Washington is also coming off of a bye, but I'm not sure how much that matters. The Commanders have dropped six of their last seven and prior to the bye were beaten down in three consecutive games by the Giants, Cowboys and Dolphins. Los Angeles may not be the same caliber as those latter two teams, but the Rams' offense has been heating up of late, putting at least 31 points on the board in each of its last three games.

While the Rams are coming off of a loss, there's no shame in falling to the Ravens in overtime on the road. If anything, that performance made me feel even better about the viability of the Rams' offense.

While there's always the fear of a Sam Howell berserker game, we simply haven't seen that from the Commanders' offense in over a month. Give me the Rams to win and cover the spread.

The pick: Rams 31 – Commanders 21

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

It goes without saying that this is a massive game for Buffalo and one that would put the Bills in a good spot, Wild Card-wise, with the Chargers and Patriots coming up over the next two weeks. After jumping out to an early 14-0 lead, the Bills were extremely lucky to escape Arrowhead with a win last Sunday. Josh Allen completed only 23-of-42 passes and the Bills curiously went away from the ground game late after running all over the Chiefs through three quarters.

With the Bills coming back home to Buffalo, this is a difficult spot for the Cowboys, but it's also a huge opportunity for Dallas to finally notch a signature road win. As of now, Dallas' best win away from home is pretty comfortably... the Chargers in Week 6? There's reason to believe Buffalo may be the more motivated team, but the Cowboys need to keep winning to stay alive in the division race, as well as the chase for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

I'll admit, this is probably the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I really don't feel strongly either way, and I can assure you this game will not make the Circa Million card. With that said, it's my professional duty to make a prediction, and we're going with the Cowboys. They're the better team, the healthier team and the more consistent team.

No matter what, the result of this game is guaranteed to produce overreactions one way or the other. Either the Cowboys are winning the Super Bowl or the Bills are back. There's no in-between.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Bills 24

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.0)

My personal, two-week-long nightmare continued last week, as the Jags committed four horrific turnovers en route to an ugly loss on the road in Cleveland. The good news: Trevor Lawrence is alive and really didn't appear hampered. The Colts and Texans also both lost. The bad news: Jacksonville can't run-block, and the once-top-10 defense has completely fallen off of a cliff.

In other bad news, the Jags now welcome in the No. 1 team in the AFC for an unprecedented second primetime game in three weeks. I'm not completely writing off Jacksonville in this spot, but it's difficult to beat any teams – let alone the Baltimore Ravens – without the threat of a consistent running game. That becomes even more difficult with Christian Kirk removed from the question, particularly when Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones aren't picking up the slack.

If the Jags can avoid the killer mistakes of Week 14, they should be able to hang around and maybe even steal a win at home. Again, we're not writing them off! Even so, this feels like a team, and especially a defense, that's rapidly moving in the wrong direction. There's still time for Jacksonville to get back on track before the postseason, but I don't think this is the week.

The pick: Ravens 28 – Jaguars 24

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+4.0)

This is another game with a major injury question mark pertaining to Geno Smith, who sat out last week with a groin injury. We got a firm "we'll see" from Pete Carroll earlier in the week, but we likely won't have full clarity on Smith's status for another few days.

All things considered, Drew Lock filled in admirably last week, throwing for 269 yards and two touchdowns on a great Niners defense. Of course, Lock also threw two picks, but that's just part of the deal when you're rolling a Minshew/Jameis archetype out there.

On the other side, Philly will look to bounce back after a lopsided loss to the Cowboys that never felt like a close game. Without getting into the tiebreaker intricacies, the Eagles still have the inside track to the NFC East crown, but they need to take care of business the rest of the way, so I don't view this as a letdown spot.

It's easy to panic based on last week's performance, but even the best teams in the NFL have blemishes. I'm not backing off of the Eagles.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Seahawks 23