Best Ball Strategy: Comparing ADPs Between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters

Best Ball Strategy: Comparing ADPs Between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters

This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.

Now that DraftKings has opened NFL best ball contests, it's time for the initial 2024 iteration of one of my favorite articles. I wouldn't necessarily say this is the most interesting read, but it might be the most useful if you draft best ball teams on multiple sites (or at least are considering it).

Below you'll see a big chart with 219 players sorted by the average of their ADPs (AADP?) between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters (as of May 10). After that, you'll see a column with the ADP from Underdog only, followed by a column that shows the difference between overall ADP and the numbers from Underdog only . This is labeled UDΔ, and it's simply calculated as: Avg. ADP - UD ADP. You'll then see the same columns for DraftKings and Drafters. Note that the table can be re-sorted by any column; this is quite useful if you want a quick glance at which guys are relatively cheapest/most expensive on a specific site.

The idea, quite simply, is to figure out which players tend to be cheaper/pricier on which site. If a guy is typically a third-round pick on Underdog but a fourth-rounder on DraftKings, you're better off getting most of your shares on DK. 

I know some people don't really care about this stuff; they just have names they like and want to draft those guys a lot, with team stacks being the other dominant consideration. Personally, I care a lot about this kind of stuff. Not only does it help with making money; there's a certain fun/challenge to figuring out the most efficient way to build a best ball portfolio.

After the chart, you'll find my analysis on some of the more interesting discrepancies. Before we get started, there are a few things worth keeping in mind when looking at the ADP numbers below. These are general rules we see each year, and looking through the early results they also hold true so far in 2024.

1. The scoring systems aren't identical. 

  • Underdog = half PPR
  • Drafters = full PPR
  • DraftKings = full PPR with three-point bonuses at 100 rushing or 300 passing yards

The ADP differences you might expect based on this don't necessarily hold true, i.e., don't assume Derrick Henry will go earlier on UD than he does on the full-PPR sites. This is something we can and should use to our advantage. When I discuss ADP differences between sites at the bottom of this article, I'll ignore minor gaps that can be explained by the differences in settings (and follow the logic, rather than opposing it).

       

2. Drafters doesn't use playoffs. DraftKings and Underdog do.

  • Drafters determines tournament winners by accumulation of points Weeks 1-17
  • DraftKings and Underdog use a playoff format Weeks 15-17.

Note: On Drafters, you need to build a team that's dominant from start to finish, which means hitting multiple home runs in the later rounds. On DK and UD, you can get away with simply being pretty good for most of the year; you just need your team to be healthy and peaking late in the season. 

On UD and DK, finishing second out of 12 in your league during Weeks 1-14 gets you into the playoffs, at which point anything can happen. A similar team on Drafters will min-cash, with no shot at anything more. This has huge, underrated implications for draft strategy, which I'll dive into more in a future article. Many of these implications also impact ADP, e.g., the heightened importance of late-season production on DK/UD means guys coming back from major injuries tend to go a little bit earlier than on Drafters, where it's a bigger deal if your player doesn't do much during the first part of the season.

      

3. DraftKings' ADP numbers are impacted considerably by three/six-player drafts.

  • In these smaller drafts, top players at the onesies positions (QB/TE) are far more valuable than normal. DraftKings includes the results of those drafts in ADP, whereas Underdog and Drafters either chose not to do so or run so few of the small drafts that it doesn't matter (it's the former, I believe, but I'm only about 90 percent sure).
  • There's a positive feedback effect, whereby people in 12-man drafts see QBs and TEs with earlier-than-normal ADPs and figure they need to pick them around those spots or else they'll be gone. You'll rarely see TE Sam LaPorta go in the second round on Underdog or Drafters, but it happens pretty regularly on DK.

The obvious response is to take all the WR value on DK in the early rounds, especially because it's full PPR. Just be careful once you get past the first 5-6 rounds. If you aren't eventually willing to draft QBs and TEs earlier than their ADPs from other sites, you might be left with absolute trash at the position. It's worth "reaching" a bit to avoid that.

    

4. ADPs on Underdog and Drafters tend to be very similar. DraftKings is the black sheep.

  • This is partially, but not entirely, because of the QB/TE inflation mentioned previously. I think it also has to do with DK attracting softer competition. I've always made more money on DK than on the other sites, and there always seem to be glaring ADP inefficiencies in the later rounds.

                 

ADP Comparison Chart (as of May 10)

  Avg ADPUD ADPUDΔDK ADPDKΔDR ADPDRΔ
1RBChristian McCaffrey1.21.20.01.10.11.3-0.1
2WRCeeDee Lamb2.12.10.02.3-0.21.90.2
3WRTyreek Hill3.23.20.03.00.23.3-0.1
4WRJa'Marr Chase4.34.10.24.8-0.54.00.3
5WRJustin Jefferson5.65.20.46.3-0.75.20.4
6WRAmon-Ra St. Brown5.96.6-0.75.20.75.90.0
7RBBijan Robinson7.36.60.78.0-0.67.4-0.1
8RBBreece Hall7.87.70.17.40.48.2-0.4
9WRPuka Nacua9.79.40.311.0-1.38.71.0
10WRA.J. Brown10.310.20.110.6-0.210.20.1
11RBJahmyr Gibbs11.512.1-0.69.91.712.6-1.1
12WRGarrett Wilson12.111.11.014.4-2.310.81.3
13WRMarvin Harrison14.813.41.417.9-3.113.21.6
14RBSaquon Barkley15.314.90.412.23.118.7-3.4
15RBJonathan Taylor15.415.5-0.115.10.315.6-0.2
16RBKyren Williams19.420.6-1.216.43.021.3-1.9
17WRDavante Adams19.818.90.923.2-3.417.22.6
18WRDrake London20.615.84.831.9-11.314.26.4
19RBDe'Von Achane22.422.40.020.91.523.9-1.5
20WRChris Olave22.418.34.132.8-10.416.16.3
21WRBrandon Aiyuk22.617.74.931.1-8.618.93.7
22WRNico Collins22.922.90.025.3-2.420.52.4
23TESam LaPorta24.828.8-4.016.48.429.1-4.3
24WRStefon Diggs25.624.90.727.3-1.724.61.0
25WRMike Evans27.124.82.334.6-7.521.85.3
26QBJosh Allen28.632.9-4.319.69.033.4-4.8
27WRDeebo Samuel29.822.57.341.9-12.224.94.9
28TETravis Kelce29.838.4-8.617.712.133.3-3.5
29WRDJ Moore32.127.15.039.8-7.729.52.6
30WRMichael Pittman32.530.42.140.7-8.226.56.0
31RBJosh Jacobs32.834.2-1.425.96.938.3-5.5
32WRJaylen Waddle33.027.65.444.7-11.726.86.2
33RBDerrick Henry33.432.21.229.04.338.9-5.5
34QBJalen Hurts33.737.6-3.922.910.840.5-6.8
35WRCooper Kupp34.635.3-0.737.0-2.431.53.1
36WRMalik Nabers35.528.27.350.2-14.728.07.5
37RBTravis Etienne35.537.6-2.126.59.042.4-6.9
38WRDeVonta Smith36.933.63.346.7-9.830.46.5
39WRDK Metcalf38.333.25.148.8-10.433.05.3
40QBLamar Jackson39.342.3-3.031.08.344.6-5.3
41TETrey McBride40.544.8-4.335.35.241.4-0.9
42QBPatrick Mahomes41.044.2-3.229.211.849.5-8.5
43QBC.J. Stroud43.548.6-5.127.815.754.2-10.7
44WRZay Flowers44.440.04.455.9-11.537.27.2
45RBIsiah Pacheco44.746.4-1.739.94.847.9-3.2
46TEDalton Kincaid45.250.2-5.038.26.947.1-1.9
47WRTank Dell46.143.13.055.2-9.140.06.1
48WRTee Higgins47.942.25.759.3-11.542.15.8
49TEMark Andrews48.053.4-5.439.28.851.3-3.3
50RBJames Cook50.750.60.144.85.956.6-5.9
51RBRachaad White50.953.6-2.739.111.859.9-9.0
52WRKeenan Allen51.152.5-1.457.0-5.943.77.4
53WRGeorge Pickens52.347.35.061.4-9.148.14.2
54QBAnthony Richardson53.756.3-2.644.09.760.8-7.1
55RBJoe Mixon54.655.4-0.848.75.959.8-5.2
56WRAmari Cooper55.151.23.965.2-10.049.06.1
57TEKyle Pitts55.260.8-5.648.27.056.5-1.3
58WRChristian Kirk58.255.03.273.7-15.545.912.3
59WRXavier Worthy59.657.32.364.7-5.156.72.9
60RBAlvin Kamara61.365.7-4.451.310.067.0-5.7
61RBKenneth Walker62.162.00.153.88.370.5-8.4
62TEGeorge Kittle62.666.8-4.253.78.967.4-4.8
63WRJayden Reed63.458.74.774.9-11.556.56.9
64WRTerry McLaurin63.858.65.280.2-16.452.611.2
65WRMarquise Brown64.461.92.569.5-5.261.72.7
66WRRome Odunze67.466.31.167.6-0.268.2-0.8
67RBAaron Jones68.371.5-3.260.38.073.2-4.9
68TEEvan Engram68.975.9-7.064.64.366.12.8
69QBJoe Burrow70.071.9-1.951.518.586.6-16.6
70WRCalvin Ridley72.267.44.886.8-14.662.59.7
71RBDavid Montgomery72.573.3-0.862.110.582.2-9.7
72QBKyler Murray73.079.0-6.065.27.974.9-1.9
73WRRashee Rice73.876.3-2.576.8-3.068.25.6
74RBRhamondre Stevenson76.577.1-0.672.83.779.7-3.2
75QBDak Prescott77.284.9-7.757.319.989.4-12.2
76WRJordan Addison77.469.48.087.0-9.775.71.7
77WRBrian Thomas77.674.13.583.7-6.274.92.7
78QBJordan Love77.789.1-11.454.723.089.3-11.6
79RBZamir White78.980.3-1.474.84.181.6-2.7
80WRKeon Coleman79.273.95.388.8-9.674.94.3
81TEJake Ferguson79.888.1-8.373.06.878.41.4
82WRLadd McConkey79.969.610.399.4-19.570.79.2
83WRChris Godwin80.176.73.496.7-16.666.913.2
84RBD'Andre Swift80.783.3-2.672.78.086.1-5.4
85RBRaheem Mostert82.392.8-10.558.224.195.8-13.5
86TEDavid Njoku83.999.3-15.463.620.388.8-4.9
87WRDiontae Johnson84.582.42.199.2-14.871.812.7
88WRChristian Watson85.786.1-0.490.1-4.580.84.9
89WRDeAndre Hopkins88.284.53.7101.7-13.578.39.9
90TEBrock Bowers89.198.5-9.471.517.697.3-8.2
91RBNajee Harris89.287.31.987.71.692.7-3.5
92RBJames Conner89.491.7-2.381.08.395.4-6.0
93WRJaxon Smith-Njigba90.181.48.7105.6-15.583.46.7
94RBTony Pollard92.291.70.591.11.193.9-1.7
95QBBrock Purdy93.9103.0-9.170.923.0107.9-14.0
96QBCaleb Williams94.094.8-0.888.06.099.2-5.2
97RBJaylen Warren94.192.81.3101.2-7.188.35.8
98RBZack Moss94.894.40.494.10.795.9-1.1
99RBJonathon Brooks95.292.72.591.53.7101.4-6.2
100RBNick Chubb100.2104.4-4.268.232.0128.0-27.8
101WRJameson Williams100.799.90.8108.8-8.193.57.2
102RBAustin Ekeler100.8108.8-8.078.722.1115.0-14.2
103RBTrey Benson101.2101.8-0.695.75.5106.2-5.0
104RBJavonte Williams102.2104.6-2.499.62.5102.3-0.1
105WRCurtis Samuel102.299.92.3114.2-11.992.69.6
106QBTua Tagovailoa104.3111.7-7.477.027.3124.1-19.8
107TEDallas Goedert106.8113.2-6.498.28.7109.1-2.3
108QBJayden Daniels107.7106.31.4108.7-1.0108.1-0.4
109WRMike Williams108.2105.52.7113.4-5.2105.62.6
110QBJared Goff109.5120.6-11.186.123.4121.7-12.2
111WRRomeo Doubs110.3115.7-5.4111.3-1.0104.06.3
112TET.J. Hockenson110.6114.8-4.291.619.0125.4-14.8
113WRCourtland Sutton111.8106.25.6120.6-8.8108.73.1
114WRTyler Lockett112.7109.73.0128.4-15.7100.012.7
115RBBrian Robinson112.9111.21.7111.21.7116.2-3.3
116RBDevin Singletary112.9114.0-1.1116.7-3.8108.04.9
117QBTrevor Lawrence114.0117.7-3.7108.55.5115.9-1.9
118TEDalton Schultz114.3125.8-11.598.715.6118.4-4.1
119WRKhalil Shakir114.9115.7-0.8123.1-8.3105.89.1
120QBJustin Herbert116.2122.8-6.699.017.2126.9-10.7
121WRAdonai Mitchell118.1113.34.8119.4-1.3121.6-3.5
122RBGus Edwards118.6117.41.2114.83.8123.6-5.0
123RBTyjae Spears119.1123.6-4.5113.95.2119.8-0.7
124RBChase Brown120.1119.60.5127.6-7.5113.07.1
125WRJakobi Meyers120.4121.7-1.3124.6-4.2114.95.5
126QBKirk Cousins122.8133.6-10.899.023.8135.8-13.0
127WRRashid Shaheed123.9122.51.4132.1-8.1117.26.7
128WRJoshua Palmer125.1126.0-0.9133.8-8.7115.59.6
129RBBlake Corum127.5130.3-2.8121.95.7130.4-2.9
130TECole Kmet130.0135.1-5.1113.916.1141.0-11.0
131RBEzekiel Elliott131.0128.12.9132.2-1.3132.6-1.6
132RBJerome Ford131.9136.8-4.9131.80.1127.04.9
133WRGabe Davis132.2129.62.6140.5-8.3126.55.7
134TEPat Freiermuth133.8141.7-7.9117.616.2142.2-8.4
135WRBrandin Cooks135.0134.60.4140.8-5.8129.75.3
136WRJerry Jeudy135.9131.74.2146.1-10.3129.86.1
137RBZach Charbonnet137.0136.01.0137.7-0.8137.2-0.2
138WRJosh Downs137.6137.7-0.1142.3-4.7132.84.8
139WRJahan Dotson138.8132.56.3149.2-10.5134.64.2
140QBMatthew Stafford140.2142.7-2.5126.713.5151.2-11.0
141WRXavier Legette140.9139.51.4144.4-3.6138.72.2
142QBAaron Rodgers140.9147.7-6.8118.522.4156.6-15.7
143RBRico Dowdle141.4140.41.0143.9-2.5139.91.5
144TELuke Musgrave144.2152.2-8.0126.218.0154.3-10.1
145RBJaylen Wright144.4145.1-0.7143.21.2144.9-0.5
146WRRicky Pearsall147.5144.43.1152.0-4.5146.01.5
147WRDontayvion Wicks148.0145.42.6157.8-9.8140.97.1
148WRQuentin Johnston152.9148.94.0161.3-8.5148.44.5
149RBKendre Miller153.0154.4-1.4157.2-4.3147.35.7
150WRTroy Franklin153.3153.4-0.1155.8-2.5150.72.6
151QBDeshaun Watson154.0161.4-7.4136.217.8164.4-10.4
152WRDarnell Mooney154.3150.53.8168.1-13.8144.49.9
153QBBaker Mayfield154.8156.9-2.1141.513.3165.9-11.1
154RBJ.K. Dobbins157.1161.2-4.1138.318.8171.7-14.6
155RBRay Davis157.4158.8-1.4163.7-6.3149.87.6
156RBTy Chandler159.0152.46.6174.2-15.2150.48.6
157WRRoman Wilson159.8159.20.6165.1-5.3155.14.7
158TEHunter Henry160.0161.7-1.7157.62.4160.7-0.7
159RBChuba Hubbard161.4166.6-5.2152.78.7164.9-3.5
160RBMarShawn Lloyd161.5147.314.2185.4-23.9151.99.6
161TECade Otton161.6167.8-6.2138.323.3178.7-17.1
162WRMichael Wilson162.4157.54.9177.4-15.0152.310.1
163RBAntonio Gibson163.2170.8-7.6162.90.3155.87.4
164WRAdam Thielen163.2166.8-3.6161.91.4161.02.2
165WRJa'Lynn Polk164.6155.78.9180.1-15.5158.16.5
166RBTyler Allgeier166.0168.0-2.0165.10.9164.81.2
167QBJ.J. McCarthy167.6177.6-10.0127.640.0197.6-30.0
168TEBen Sinnott168.7152.416.3184.1-15.4169.6-0.9
169WRMalachi Corley168.9169.5-0.6173.0-4.2164.14.8
170WRJermaine Burton169.2161.67.6183.9-14.7162.17.1
171TEJuwan Johnson169.7174.1-4.4169.00.7166.13.6
172QBGeno Smith170.8172.6-1.8159.810.9179.9-9.1
173QBWill Levis172.6177.1-4.5156.316.3184.3-11.7
174TEIsaiah Likely172.6178.1-5.5158.314.3181.4-8.8
175RBKimani Vidal172.9163.19.8192.1-19.2163.59.4
176WRMarvin Mims173.6170.72.9179.8-6.2170.43.2
177TETyler Conklin178.5179.8-1.3166.512.0189.2-10.7
178TETaysom Hill178.9216.0-37.1144.034.9176.72.2
179RBJaleel McLaughlin179.7181.3-1.6175.54.2182.2-2.5
180RBBucky Irving179.8173.56.3196.7-16.9169.310.5
181RBKhalil Herbert183.1182.11.0190.4-7.3176.76.4
182WRRashod Bateman184.0183.10.9190.6-6.5178.45.6
183RBRoschon Johnson184.5182.42.1184.20.3186.8-2.3
184WRWan'Dale Robinson186.0186.2-0.2195.2-9.2176.69.4
185TEJonnu Smith186.6187.5-0.9195.7-9.1176.610.0
186RBKeaton Mitchell187.3190.6-3.3178.19.2193.3-6.0
187QBJustin Fields187.4194.5-7.1159.328.1208.5-21.1
188QBDerek Carr188.0199.4-11.4170.417.6194.3-6.3
189WRJavon Baker188.3184.04.3201.4-13.2179.48.9
190QBDrake Maye189.7193.4-3.7183.26.5192.6-2.9
191RBElijah Mitchell189.8200.5-10.7171.818.0197.1-7.3
192WRDemario Douglas190.0190.6-0.6192.9-2.8186.63.4
193WRLuke McCaffrey191.3178.512.8216.0-24.7179.312.0
194QBBryce Young193.4198.4-5.0179.214.2202.5-9.1
195RBTyrone Tracy193.5185.58.0214.0-20.5181.012.5
196RBDameon Pierce194.1193.40.7186.67.5202.4-8.3
197QBDaniel Jones194.4204.4-10.0173.720.7205.2-10.8
198TENoah Fant198.8191.57.3209.6-10.8195.33.5
199WRDemarcus Robinson198.9194.64.3216.0-17.1186.212.7
200TEChigoziem Okonkwo199.5197.42.1185.214.4216.0-16.5
201WROdell Beckham201.9197.74.2203.0-1.1204.9-3.0
202RBAudric Estime202.4209.1-6.7198.14.3200.12.3
203QBBo Nix203.2208.7-5.5190.113.1210.8-7.6
204QBRussell Wilson203.8211.2-7.4184.219.6216.0-12.2
205WRDevontez Walker204.3198.26.1216.0-11.7198.85.5
206TEJa'Tavion Sanders206.2206.20.0202.53.7209.8-3.6
207WRMalik Washington207.1208.0-0.9216.0-8.9197.39.8
208RBWill Shipley207.8210.0-2.2210.7-2.9202.85.0
209TEMike Gesicki208.8203.85.0206.62.2216.0-7.2
210WRJalen McMillan210.3210.5-0.2216.0-5.7204.36.0
211WRTyler Boyd210.4202.28.2213.0-2.6216.0-5.6
212WRJalin Hyatt210.6211.0-0.4205.55.0215.2-4.6
213RBIsaac Guerendo211.2208.42.8216.0-4.8209.22.0
214TETucker Kraft211.6206.55.1212.4-0.8216.0-4.4
215RBD'Onta Foreman213.0216.0-3.0212.90.1210.12.9
216WRElijah Moore213.3208.05.3216.0-2.7216.0-2.7
217WRKendrick Bourne213.4216.0-2.6210.82.6213.30.1
218WRDJ Chark213.7209.04.7216.0-2.3216.0-2.3
219WRBrenden Rice214.2210.53.7216.0-1.8216.0-1.8

        

Underdog Breakdown 🐕

Later ADPs (Cheaper) on UD

Mitchell is cheapest on the half-PPR site despite having 11.7 carries for every reception throughout this career. That ratio won't hold for the scenario we care about in which Christian McCaffrey is injured, but it's probably fair to say that Mitchell's production would still lean heavily toward rushing yards and TDs. I really like the price here, with the combination of McCaffrey's recent run of good health and San Francisco's addition of fourth-round pick Isaac Guerendo causing many fantasy players to forget that Mitchell is (probably) still just one injury away from a starting job in Kyle Shanahan's backfield.

The guy who would need to suffer that injury, McCaffrey, is certainly well-suited to large workloads, but even for him there's no way to take 20 touches per game without carrying a lot of injury risk. Looking at the past half-decade, public perception of McCaffrey's "durability" is one of the funnier and more glaring examples of the strength of recency bias. Anyway, I love Mitchell as a 16th/17th-round pick on Underdog.

       

Like many tight ends, Njoku has an inflated ADP on DraftKings (63.6). However, he's also going much earlier on Drafters (88.8) than Underdog (99.3), which isn't necessarily a product of differences in scoring system. Njoku scored six TDs last season, and over the years he's typically maintained above-average rates of yards and TDs per reception by TE standards, i.e., half PPR vs. full PPR shouldn't make much of a difference for his value (apart from half PPR slightly increasing the incentive to draft QBs or non-receiving RBs in the same range).

If anything, Njoku might be more reliant on TDs and big plays rather than volume this year. Last season's target total (123) topped his previous career high by 35, and the Browns improved their pass-catching depth this offseason with the trade for WR Jerry Jeudy. The ninth-round price on Underdog allows Njoku to lose a bunch of targets from last season and still be a good pick.

        

         

Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on UD

I'd expect JSN to be most expensive not on Underdog but instead on Drafters, where there's full-PPR scoring and maximized incentive to value ceiling over floor. Or maybe I've got it wrong and people are viewing him as more of a floor play, figuring he's definitely a good player but has limited target upside in an offense with DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. I'm more confident about the second part than the first; for me, Smith-Njigba's downside scenarios carry more weight than the upside ones. I'm not sold on the player, and don't think he'll see that many targets even if he does take a huge step forward in real-life terms.

      

In the interest of objectivity, I'm including a second-year WR that also qualifies for this list but who I personally have a lot more confidence in. Like JSN, the Vikings' No. 2 receiver is going earlier on UD than on the other two sites. That's less confusing in this case because Addison was a higher-aDOT, higher-TD guy during his rookie season, minimizing the value difference between half PPR and full. Still, there's better value to be had by taking him on Drafters or DK instead of Underdog.

       

    

DraftKings Breakdown 👑

The trend of QBs and TEs going earlier on DK is so strong that it isn't worth mentioning specific examples for the most part. I might point out a couple of the more extreme cases, but really what's more helpful is to identify QBs/TEs that buck the trend (or at least come close to doing so).

Running backs also tend to go earlier on DraftKings, i.e., wide receivers tend to go much later. Again, I'm not going to point out every example of the trend but will indeed highlight some of the more extreme cases (plus exceptions to the general rule(s)).

Later ADPs (Cheaper) on DK

Daniels is the only quarterback with a DraftKings ADP that's about the same as his ADP on the other two sites. You'll notice that two other Commanders are listed in this section, so there's massive overall value in stacking the Washington offense on DK (at least relative to other sites). Others might frame it as Washington stacks being a rip-off/overvalued on Underdog and Drafters.

Rookies tend to go later on DraftKings compared to the other sites, and in this case it outweighs the impact of TE inflation. Sinnott was a good second-round pick for the TE-needy Commanders; personally, I'd grade him at something like an A- for measurables, B for college production and B+ for film. His gait/posture makes him look like a fullback, but he erased any concerns there when he ran a 4.68 40 at 6-4, 250. Sinnott was even better in the other combine drills, with his vertical jump (40 in.) and broad jump (126 in.) ranking well above average... by WR standards.

Ferguson is one of the few prominent players at QB or TE with a DraftKings ADP similar to his ADPs on Underdog and Drafters. This makes him an ideal candidate for the seventh round or late sixth when you go WR heavy early on while QBs/TEs fly off the board. It might feel like a slight reach still compared to his ADP on Underdog, in particular, but the slight reach is better than making an extreme reach earlier or ending up near-barren at tight end.

Other examples of QBs and TEs without the massive inflation on DK include Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant and Hunter Henry. Generally speaking, the effect is less pronounced in later rounds, and much less pronounced among rookies.

           

               

Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on DK

The combination of full PPR and yardage bonuses relatively devalues touchdowns on DraftKings. Not to be dissuaded, drafters on DK are sometimes taking Mostert as early as the fifth or sixth round, though the value is infinitely better if you get him as an eight-round pick in Underdog's half-PPR format. 

FWIW, there's a general trend here where RBs that are older and/or coming back from major injuries go earlier on DK than on the other sites. I don't disagree in every case (see: Ekeler), but mostly it seems to be inflation based on name recognition, furthering the thesis that DK has the softest competition.

      

White doesn't quite fit with the other RBs that have inflated prices on DraftKings, as he's entering his third season after a healthy second year. It does seem, however, that drafters on DK value put a bit of extra weight on previous-year production. In a lot of cases, that's probably a bad thing. In this case, I'm not so sure. White may only be average as a pure runner, but his combination of youth, size and receiving ability seems promising for continued production. 

        

         

Drafters Breakdown 🤓

Later ADPs (Cheaper) on Drafters

McCarthy is going at QB25 on Underdog, QB21 on DraftKings and QB27 on Drafters. We also generally see QBs going later on Drafters than the other sites, so it adds up to a fantastic value, even if there's logic that arguably backs waiting on the position in a setup with full-PPR scoring and no playoffs.

                       

One might assume Ekeler is most valuable on Drafters, the home of full-PPR scoring and no yardage bonuses. Other fantasy players apparently disagree, which might be because Ekeler is now viewed as a floor play rather than a ceiling option (and Drafters' total-points formats encourages shooting for the moon with every pick). I don't agree with that, as it's possible the decline we saw last season was less about aging and more about Ekeler's high-ankle sprain. He had 164 yards Week 1 before suffering the injury, and by the end of the year he was playing in a collapsed offense.

       

         

Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on Drafters

I'm surprised to see Kirk going nearly a full round earlier on Drafters than he is on DraftKings. He topped 13.0 yards per catch in both of his first two seasons with Jacksonville and has 11 scores on 141 catches for the Jags, so the difference between half PPR and full PPR shouldn't make a huge difference here. It is true that WRs tend to go earliest on Drafters, just not to this extent in most cases.

    

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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