Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers for Week 7
A Falcons team riding high from a primetime win over Josh Allen's Bills makes the cross-country trip on a short week to Levi's Stadium to face a still injury-hampered 49ers team.
This battle of NFC contenders holds plenty of intrigue partly because of who is and isn't available for San Francisco. We'll break down odds and best bets for this Sunday night clash.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Falcons +115 (ESPN Bet) / 49ers -126 (FanDuel)
Point spread: Falcons +2 (BetMGM) / 49ers -1.5 (BetRivers)
Totals: Over 46.5 points (FanDuel) / Under 47.5 points (ESPN Bet)
The line for this game has had plenty of movement as the 49ers' projected advantage has narrowed considerably. The number was at -4.5 before the Week 6 slate, but a couple of different factors have caused to shrink to as much as 1.5 over the course of the week. Atlanta's spirited win over Buffalo on Monday night certainly played a part, and the fact Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are confirmed as out also swayed bettors.
Interestingly, the total has been gone in the opposite direction, as it's risen from 45.5 to 47.5 over the course of the last week-plus. Once again, the Falcons clearly made an impression in Week 6, and Fred Warner's season-ending injury also dings the Niners defense. George Kittle being confirmed as available for the hosts couldn't stop the spread's downward trend, but it likely played a part in heightening offensive expectations.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Picks
The first full season with Michael Penix at the helm of the Falcons' offense is going fairly well so far as the aforementioned upset over the Bills pushed Atlanta's record to 3-2. Penix, Bijan Robinson and Drake London all put on quite the show against Buffalo, but the defense was just as impressive while harassing Allen into a pair of interceptions and two fumbles that Buffalo held onto and also sacking him four times.
The challenge is a bit different Sunday night, even as Atlanta faces a more injury-hampered team in the 49ers. Brock Purdy (toe) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) remain out for San Francisco, as does Brandon Aiyuk (knee), who's yet to make his season debut. However, there was some light at the end of the injury tunnel this week for the Niners as both Mac Jones and Jauan Jennings cleared their injury designations. And then there's Kittle's impending return, which he teed up by practicing in full on Friday. The athletic tight end provides a significant boost to both the passing and ground attacks due to his all-around skill set. Jones, who's already looked the part of a legitimate starting quarterback during his four games at the helm so far, will now get a key weapon in his arsenal.
Additionally, while Pearsall's absence takes away a nice downfield component from the passing game, Kendrick Bourne has made his teammate's absence a non-issue by breaking out for back-to-back, career-best 142-yard tallies in the last two games. With Jennings, Bourne, Kittle and Demarcus Robinson out on routes and Christian McCaffrey available and healthy to handle his usual massive workload, Jones will have plenty to work with.
The defense will naturally be hurt by the season-ending ankle injury to Fred Warner, but coordinator Robert Saleh has had a week to navigate that. Additionally, rookie seventh-round pick Tatum Bethune racked up 10 tackles on 44 snaps after Warner's injury in Week 6 and could prove to be quite the capable fill-in.
Given all the circumstances cited, I like the chances of a close game that San Fran can pull out due to its homefield/rest/body clock advantage. Then with a lower-scoring game very conceivable and McCaffrey having comfortably exceeded 60 combined rushing and receiving yards this season, I like an SGP that combines the two.
Falcons vs. 49ers Best Bets:
- 49ers moneyline (-126)
- SGP: Under 46.5 points and Christian McCaffrey 60+ rushing + receiving yards (+106 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Falcons vs. 49ers Prediction
49ers 20, Falcons 17
A multi-time-zone trip on a short week following an emotional home victory sounds like the perfect storm for a letdown. While I believe Morris will have his team ready to play, the return of Kittle offers a nice boost for San Francisco and gives Jones a key weapon. This game is a pretty good bet to lean much more toward a defensive, lower-scoring struggle, one I believe the hosts can secure a close victory in.
