Monday Night Football: NFL Picks and Predictions for Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders
A Bears squad off its bye after two straight wins travels to the nation's capital to battle a Commanders squad riding high after a convincing road win over the Chargers. This Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels showdown of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft could develop into a highly entertaining clash given the offensive talent on either side.
With an intriguing set of circumstances at play, we break down odds and best bets for this NFC Monday night battle.
Gear up for NFL season with the best sportsbook promos available at the top sports betting sites. The BetMGM bonus code gets football fans up to $1,500 in bonuses at signup.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bears +195 (ESPN Bet) / Commanders -225 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Bears +4.5 (DraftKings) / Commanders -4.5 (FanDuel)
Totals: Over 49.5 points (-102 DraftKings) / Under 50.5 points (+100 ESPN Bet)
The Commanders have been solid home favorites since before Week 5, but that advantage has actually shrunk over the last few days despite Washington's impressive road win over Los Angeles. The Commanders were at -5.5 before Week 5 kicked off, but over the course of this past week, the number has been bet down as low as 3.5 on multiple occasions before settling at 4.5 at most sportsbooks entering the weekend.
The total has also had its share of fluctuation, although it's been bouncing within a tight one-point range. It sat at 50.5 before Week 5, and it's subsequently bounced between that figure and 49.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Check updated NFL odds to find the best prices for your favorite bets all season.
Try the Caesars Sportsbook promo code this NFL season for a great welcome offer from one of the leading sports betting apps.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Betting Picks
The Bears' status as fairly sizable underdogs here is one of the eye-catching aspects of the betting metrics associated with this game. Chicago was clearly making some progress before the bye after an 0-2 start, even if Williams remains a work in progress in Ben Johnson's renowned offensive system.
The Bears entered their Week 5 bye with some momentum. There's certainly an expectation Williams and his teammates on that side of the ball got some very good work in and will emerge from their idle week that much better in Johnson's high-upside scheme. Despite the Commanders' unexpected dominance of Justin Herbert and co. in Week 5, Washington's pass defense has been particularly vulnerable to big plays, allowing 249.7 passing yards per game and a 72.7 percent completion rate in the last three contests, as well as 11.8 yards per completion overall.
Williams averages 7.1 yards per attempt (up from 6.3 as a rookie in a different offense) and already has 13 completions of 20+ yards. Washington has also been very tough to run at home – the Commanders have given up just 83.5 rushing yards per home contest and just 3.4 yards per carry overall. Therefore, a pass-centric approach for Chicago could unfold in this spot, one where the Bears' air attack comfortably outpaces Washington's in terms of starting-caliber options if both Terry McLaurin (quadriceps) and Noah Brown (groin) sit again for the Commanders.
Given the circumstances at play, I like the Bears to keep things close, at minimum, as my main bet. Then, while Rome Odunze is clearly starting to take center stage in this offense, Moore hasn't just fallen off a cliff and has 38 or more receiving yards in three of his first four games. With Odunze likely to get plenty of defensive attention and the Commanders easier to attack through the air, I like Moore's prop and even a bonus SGP where we give Chicago even more points and bank on Williams getting to at least 225 yards.
Bears vs. Commanders Best Bets:
- Bears +4.5 (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- DJ Moore Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-113 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- SGP: Bears Alt. Spread +11.5 and Caleb Williams 225+ passing yards (+101 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bears vs. Commanders Prediction
Bears 26, Commanders 24
Then talent advantage will tilt slightly toward the Bears here if McLaurin remains sidelined, which appears likely. Additionally, Johnson getting two weeks to game plan for an opponent is certainly an advantage, and Williams should be getting more comfortable by the week in his coach's highly effective system. That theoretically would hold even truer immediately following the bye, and I see a more rested and increasingly healthier Bears squad having enough here for the road win.
