Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders
Two teams going in diametrically opposite directions face off in the nation's capital in this primetime battle, with the Broncos aiming for their ninth straight win while the Commanders try to stop the bleeding of a six-game losing streak.
Below, we break down odds and best bets for this Sunday night interconference battle.
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Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Broncos -275 (BetMGM) / Commanders +235 (FanDuel)
- Point spread: Broncos -5.5 (BetMGM) / Commanders +5.5 (DraftKings)
- Totals: Over 43.5 points (ESPN Bet) / Under 43.5 points (BetMGM)
Despite the Commanders' recent form and the confirmation Jayden Daniels will remain out for this game due to a shoulder injury, the spread for this game has actually narrowed from the pre-Week 12 figure of Broncos -6.5 to -5.5 over the course of the last week-plus. The confirmed return of Terry McLaurin from a quadriceps injury might have played at least a small part in the movement.
In contrast, the total has been the epitome of stability. The number was at 43.5 before Week 12 and has remained there throughout the last week-plus. Denver's defense is naturally the biggest factor in the number being as low as it is, and the fact Patrick Surtain is returning from a pectoral injury to essentially offset McLaurin's availability is a factor in the number staying put.
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Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders Betting Picks
The Broncos' winning streak has been a sight to behold, with Denver going from 1-2 to the No. 2 seed in the AFC entering Sunday's action. The Broncos have proven capable of winning in all manner of ways and against all caliber of opponents. They've recorded victories over both of last February's Super Bowl participants while also capitalizing on favorable matchups against the Bengals, Jets, Giants and Raiders.
However, Denver has played down the caliber of its competition at times, getting into a 33-32 track meet with the Giants while also getting bogged down in the mud by both the Jets and Raiders. Nix has experienced occasional bouts of a sophomore slump, throwing for under 200 yards on five occasions overall.
However, Nix also has five games with 242 passing yards or more. Although another lackluster opponent looms in this matchup, he's set up well for one of his better performances after torching the talented Chiefs secondary for 295 yards in Week 11. Not only has Nix had a chance to work out some kinks during the Week 12 bye, but he's also facing a Commanders squad that's surrendered 260.8 passing yards per home game and a league-high 13.2 yards per completion in that split.
Washington also has just five interceptions and a modest 25 sacks in 11 games, and the Commanders have surrendered an NFL-high 15.98% explosive-play rate in the last three games. That puts an SGP in play that lowers the Broncos' required margin of victory by a field goal in order to account for their occasional struggles against sub-par teams and banks on a solid day from Nix. Additionally, with Courtland Sutton averaging 14.4 yards per reception and gaining 20+ yards on over 25 percent of his catches (12 out of 45), his very reasonable yardage prop is also in play against this defense.
Broncos vs. Commanders Best Bets:
- SGP: Broncos Alt. Spread +2.5 and Bo Nix Over 224.5 passing yards (+131 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Courtland Sutton Over 47.5 receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Broncos vs. Commanders Prediction
Broncos 27, Commanders 17
A bye week typically can't help but give a team a bit of a recharge and boost, not to mention plenty of extra time for coaches to tinker with what hasn't been working. The Commanders' staff had plenty of the latter on their plate, but even with some likely improvement, the fact they're still playing with a backup quarterback against a relentless defense is going to lead to a fairly expansive loss, partly because of their issues on defense.
