NFL Picks and Predictions for Texans vs. Chiefs
Two AFC contenders heading in different directions face off in this primetime clash, and we break down odds and best bets for this key Sunday night battle.
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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Texans +160 (DraftKings) / Chiefs -185 (BetMGM)
- Point spread: Texans +3.5 (FanDuel) / Chiefs -3.5 (BetRivers)
- Totals: Over 41.5 points (BetMGM) / Under 42.0 points (BetRivers)
This game has had some of the more notable line movement of the Week 14 slate, and with good reason. Not only have the Texans now put together a four-game winning streak during which they've upended fellow AFC contenders Jacksonville, Buffalo and Indianapolis, but the Chiefs are fortunate not to have dropped four straight. The number sat at -6 before Thanksgiving, but KC's loss to the Cowboys on that day and Houston's win over the Colts in C.J. Stroud's successful return saw it bet down all the way to 3.5 entering the weekend.
The total has shrunk a bit, as the pre-Week 13 number of 43.5, already a very modest figure, has dipped further over the last several days. The figure is now as low as 41.5 at some sportsbooks entering the weekend, as the Texans' defense has gained plenty of fans after limiting three straight opponents to less than 20 points.
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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks
The Texans' defense has undoubtedly been a driving force of Houston's comeback from an ugly start to the season. The unit has surrendered a league-low 16.2 points per road game along with a league-low 270 total yards per game in that split. DeMeco Ryans' group also has 34 sacks and 11 interceptions, and they've given up just 12 touchdown passes overall.
As those numbers suggest, the Texans have slowed down both the run and pass at above-average rates, and they're limiting opponents to just 174.0 passing yards per game overall, including 192.7 on the road. However, Mahomes has gotten the better of the matchup in his first two games against Ryans' Texans squads, notching 27-19 and 23-14 wins at Arrowhead in the 2024 regular season and last January in an AFC Divisional Game.
I envision a similar outcome and score in this third clash. The temperatures are expected to be about 16 degrees at kickoff Sunday night, which arguably gives KC an edge overall, and to the defenses in general. Stroud did look sharp in his return from a three-game stay on the shelf due to a concussion in the win over Indy, but Mahomes and co. also have a rest advantage after having last played on Thanksgiving.
With the Chiefs a full four games behind the Broncos in the AFC West going into Sunday and sitting all the way in the No. 10 seed in the AFC, there's simply no more room for error. While it's unfamiliar territory for Andy Reid's team, it's also one that breeds no shortage of urgency, and I therefore like an SGP that banks on an outright win for KC and improves the price by using the Alt. Total feature and pairing that outcome with an Under bet.
Additionally, considering the weather and the Texans' work against the pass, the Under on a fairly elevated passing yards total for Mahomes is also viable.
Texans vs. Chiefs Best Bets:
- SGP: Chiefs moneyline and Under Alt. Total 46.5 points (+115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 242.5 passing yards (-112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 23, Texans 19
As noted previously, this shapes up as a defensive slugfest for the most part, although the talent on either offense is going to break through on occasion. Nevertheless, with KC on the brink of the unthinkable in terms of its season, I see them willing themselves to a relatively ugly, gritty victory.
