NFL Picks and Predictions for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
In the middle game on Thanksgiving Day, the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) square off with the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas with a kickoff scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+).
The Chiefs picked up a huge victory against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12, staying very much in the hunt in the AFC playoff chase. The Cowboys also scored a titanic victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, mounting a monumental comeback to keep their season very much afloat.
We'll break down the odds and provide best bets for this important Thursday afternoon clash.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Chiefs -175 (BetMGM, Fanatics), Cowboys +154 (DraftKings)
- Point spread: Chiefs -3 (-114 Caesars), Cowboys +3.5 (-115 DraftKings)
- Totals: Over 51.5 points (-114 BetRivers), Under 52.5 (-110 DraftKings, FanDuel)
The line opened with the Chiefs installed as a 4.5-point favorite, but it has tumbled to just -3 at some shops, including Caesars. It could, potentially, continue to fall. You can still catch the Cowboys with three and a hook, but you better get on the ball, as that opportunity is quickly slipping away.
As far as the total, that opened at 47.5, and it has quickly jumped. Bettors are expecting QB Patrick Mahomes and the resurgent Chiefs offense to put on a show that will put Post Malone's Thanksgiving Salvation Army halftime performance to shame. This number has ballooned to between 51.5 and 52.5, depending upon the shop.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Picks
The Chiefs scored a giant 23-20 overtime victory over the Indianapolis Colts in a marquee AFC game in Week 12, saving their season. Had Kansas City fallen to 5-6 on the campaign, it might've been curtains.
At times against Indy, it was vintage Mahomes, as he completed 29-of-46 passes for 352 yards, no touchdowns and one pick. Meanwhile RB Kareem Hunt also turned back the clock with 104 rushing yards and a touchdown, as Kansas City finally received the dominant rushing performance it has been missing most of the season. WR Rashee Rice also put on a show vs. Indy, going for eight grabs and 141 yards on 12 targets.
Dallas fought its way out of a 21-0 hole against Philly, with an important QB Dak Prescott to WR George Pickens touchdown late in the second quarter setting the stage for what was to come.
Prescott ended up with two TD passes, while also running one in, and PK Brandon Aubrey atoned for a rare miss from 50+ to knock through the game-winning field goal from 42 yards out at the buzzer, stunning the Eagles, while delighting the rest of the NFC.
For K.C., while the OT win was nice, it has still lost three in a row on the road, while also going 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Its only road victory was a 22-9 win against the New York Giants, so they still have a lot to prove away from home. The Chiefs got the W, but it still has failed to cover the past three games. The Under is on a 6-0 run for the Chiefs, too.
The Cowboys have actually won consecutive games for the first time this season, as they topped the lowly Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football in Week 11, 33-16, covering as a 3.5-point road favorite as the Over (48.5) cashed.
At home, Dallas is 3-1-1 SU in five games, while going 3-1 ATS in the past four at Jerry World. They had the inexplicable 27-17 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9 prior to the bye, and that's one which might haunt them down the stretch. The Under is 2-0 in the past two home games since starting out 3-0 in the first three. The defense has been much better, allowing just 18.5 PPG in the modest two-game win streak.
Looking to the injury report, Chiefs TE Noah Gray (concussion) didn't practice Monday or Tuesday, while both Rice (hamstring) and WR Xavier Worthy (ankle) were full participants Tuesday after being limited Monday. LB Leo Chenal (knee) and DE George Karlaftis (thumb) also went full. RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) has been a full participant, too.
For the Cowboys, OT Tyler Guyton (ankle) did not practice Monday or Tuesday, so that's an issue for the O-line to watch. WR George Pickens (knee, calf) did practice fully Tuesday, while WR/KR KaVontae Turpin (shoulder, illness) was limited Tuesday, and he is a question mark. DT Osa Odighizuwa (elbow) was limited Tuesday, as were safeties Malik Hooker (toe, thigh) and Donovan Wilson (neck).
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Best Bets:
- Chiefs -3 (-114 Caesars)
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Over 267.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction
Chiefs 31, Cowboys 24
This has the potential to be a fun day, especially if you like fantasy football. We should get a track meet on Thanksgiving in the middle game.
These are two of the most hated teams in the NFL by other fanbases, and a lot of people want to see the Chiefs' dynasty end. But, like Mark Twain once said, reports of their death have been greatly exaggerated. After the OTW vs. Indy, Kansas City is still very much in the hunt, and it will be even more so after a win on Thanksgiving, and several extra days to prepare for Week 14 against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
