Box Score Breakdown: Week 17 Snaps, Routes, Personnel and Usage

Box Score Breakdown: Week 17 Snaps, Routes, Personnel and Usage

This article is part of our Box Score Breakdown series.

Before we get started, I want to take an early stab at the first three rounds of 2025 ADP for full PPR leagues. This is my guess at how players will be drafted, not my opinion of where they should be drafted, although there's probably some bias/crossover involved.

Also of note: this week's recaps for each team will include discussion of playoff/rest possibilities and incentives/milestones for Week 18.

  1. WR Ja'Marr Chase
  2. RB Saquon Barkley
  3. WR Justin Jefferson
  4. RB Bijan Robinson
  5. WR Puka Nacua
  6. WR CeeDee Lamb
  7. WR Nico Collins
  8. RB De'Von Achane
  9. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
  10. WR Brian Thomas
  11. RB Jahmyr Gibbs
  12. WR Malik Nabers
  13. WR A.J. Brown
  14. RB Josh Jacobs
  15. TE Brock Bowers 
  16. RB Ashton Jeanty
  17. RB Derrick Henry 
  18. WR Ladd McConkey
  19. RB Christian McCaffrey 
  20. RB Bucky Irving 
  21. RB Jonathan Taylor 
  22. TE Trey McBride  
  23. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 
  24. RB Breece Hall 
  25. RB Kyren Williams 
  26. QB Lamar Jackson 
  27. WR Tee Higgins
  28. QB Josh Allen  
  29. WR Tyreek Hill
  30. WR Mike Evans
  31. RB Chase Brown
  32. WR Drake London
  33. WR Garrett Wilson 
  34. WR Terry McLaurin
  35. RB Chuba Hubbard
  36. WR Davante Adams

I'm probably forgetting someone. Let me know in the comments if there's an obvious omission, or if you just love/hate these rankings.

The final five columns of each stat table (written in italics) show numbers for the entire season. Bold lettering denotes especially strong marks relative to positional standards. Green lettering for the weekly stats denotes considerable increases in playing time and/or usage relative to past weeks. Red lettering denotes the opposite a decreased role relative to prior games.

If you're looking for target and air-yard shares that only include active games, you can find those updated every Tuesday on RotoWire's advanced receiving stats page. For the players that have missed games this year, we can still get a good picture of their usage/role from the stat tables below by looking at snaps/routes per game in combination with TPRR (targets per route run) and YPRR (yards per route).

Chiefs (29) at Steelers (10) 

Chiefs Personnel: 11 - 64% / 12 - 33%

58 Plays — 39 DBs — 5.7 aDOT — 29-of-38 for 320 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBPatrick Mahomes100% 1-12-0   66   -4.0
RBKareem Hunt48%15-39%9-20-1   351716%0.9-2.1
RBIsiah Pacheco34%12-32%6-18-0   291617%0.8-1.8
RBSamaje Perine17%6-16%2-9-02-20-0210171321%1.90.3
TETravis Kelce88%29-76% 8-84-11165563525%1.66.6
TENoah Gray43%12-32% 1-6-01-1392017%1.66.5
WRXavier Worthy90%34-89%2-10-08-79-193453021%1.39.0
WRJuJu Smith-Schuster52%20-53% 2-18-022291711%1.05.2
WRMarquise Brown43%19-50% 4-46-0761221745%2.87.7
WRDeAndre Hopkins43%18-47% 2-7-0425332424%1.810.8
WRJustin Watson33%10-26% 2-60-125339228%0.814.9
  • RB Isiah Pacheco suffered a rib injury in the fourth quarter and missed the rest of the game. He got his final touch with 14 minutes remaining, at which point he had six carries for 18 yards and no target on 41% of snaps, with Kareem Hunt having five carries for nine yards and a TD (also no targets) on 41% of snaps.
    • Kansas City's first two plays were Pacheco carries. The next two plays were Hunt carries. After that, the Chiefs had 32 QB dropbacks and just six more RB carries before the fourth quarter.
    • Andy Reid said Monday that Pacheco should be fine for the playoffs.
  • TE Travis Kelce caught two of three targets for 10 yards in the first half, followed by six catches for 74 yards and a TD on eight targets in the second half (accounting for 40% of KC's targets post-halftime).
    • The TD was Kelce's first since Week 10, and he ended a three-game streak with single-digit PPR points.
  • WR Xavier Worthy was busy throughout, with 33 yards from scrimmage and a TD in the first half (four targets, one carry) and then 56 yards in the second half (five targets, one carry).
    • This was Worthy's third straight game with at least nine targets, six catches, two carries, 75 total yards and a touchdown. He also led the KC WRs in snaps and routes in each of those games.
    • Worthy's 90% snap share was a season high, as was his 89% route share, although it was his fourth consecutive game in the 80s for route share (so really not much difference from the past few weeks).
  • WR Justin Watson had a 49-yard catch and an 11-yard TD early in the game, but his snap/route shares actually declined compared to prior weeks, with both Marquise Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster getting more playing time than they did Week 16.
    • Brown's snap share rose from 27% to 43%, and his route share from 33% to 50%. He's been targeted on 15 of 33 routes in two games for KC
  • WR DeAndre Hopkins got 43% of snaps and 47% of routes, after 46% snap share and 64% route share the week before. His route share has varied from week to week but never gone outside the range of 40-70 percent.
    • It'll be hard to project KC's WR snaps/routes for the first playoff game. It's possible Hopkins, Brown and Worthy are full-time players, but Andy Reid's track record suggests that's far from a guarantee and we may still see involvement from Watson/JuJu.
  • Kansas City is locked into the No. 1 seed and thus unlikely to use star players for the full game Week 18 at Denver. That doesn't mean every starter will be rested, nor does it mean Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce won't play at all, but it does mean guys like Mahomes and Kelce are unlikely to stay in for the entire game.

     

Steelers Personnel: 11 - 73% / 12 - 19%

73 Plays — 48 DBs — 7.1 aDOT — 23-of-37 for 205 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks, 6 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBRussell Wilson100% 6-55-1   63    
RBJaylen Warren53%15-36%11-71-05-41-06-3291826%1.7-0.1
RBNajee Harris45%16-38%13-74-02-7-04-10331324%1.5-2.0
RBCordarrelle Patterson1% 1-2-0   8531%1.82.7
TEPat Freiermuth60%30-71% 7-60-0858442518%1.56.1
TEDarnell Washington34%6-14% 1-8-014341319%1.54.1
TEConnor Heyward27%9-21% 1-8-01812416%0.87.4
TEMyCole Pruitt14%1-2%    22720%0.83.7
WRGeorge Pickens90%37-88% 3-50-0798522926%2.413.5
WRCalvin Austin75%32-76% 4-31-0544332118%1.712.6
WRMike Williams42%19-45% 0-0-0248191311%0.914.2
WRVan Jefferson41%19-45% 0-0-013402111%0.811.7
  • RB Najee Harris got 33% of snaps before the fourth quarter, with seven carries and two targets for 28 yards. Jaylen Warren took 65% of snaps pre-Q4, with 10 carries and two targets for 90 yards.
    • Harris then got 67% of snaps and six carries in the fourth quarter, with the Steelers seemingly more interested in getting him to 1,000 rushing yards than trying to win the game or keep their starters healthy.
    • If not for his work in garbage time, this would've been Harris' third straight game with single-digit carries and snap share below 35%. He's merely an RB3 / desperation play for Week 18.
  • WR George Pickens almost had a late surge of production, but he had a 20-yard gain wiped out by a penalty with about 11 minutes remaining, then was unable to come down with a jump ball on fourth down a few snaps later. After that, the Steelers basically gave up.
    • Pickens handled 90% snap share and 88% route share in his first game back from a hamstring injury, leading the team in both categories/
  • TE Pat Freiermuth had season highs for targets (eight) and catches (seven) along with his second most yards (60) but lost a fumble deep in his own territory in the second half.
  • WR Calvin Austin got 75% snap share and 76% route share. He wasn't a regular in two-wide formations like he had been the week before with Pickens out, but it didn't matter much because the Steelers were three-wide-heavy after falling behind.
  • What the heck is wrong with Mike Tomlin? I've always been a fan, even though I'm a Ravens diehard, but it feels like Tomlin has been throwing temper tantrums in response to his team's poor performance. He punted on a 4th-and-2 with six minutes remaining Wednesday, then sent his starters back out on the field on both defense and offense, including laughably running up Najee Harris' rushing total with five carries for 45 yards on the final series, which put Harris over 1,000 yards for the year.
    • He did something similar, but not as drastic, a week earlier, punting on 4th-and-12 from midfield with nine minutes remaining and down by 14 points, only to then make his starters play until the very end of the game at Baltimore. And the week before that, he punted on a 4th-and-7 from his own 46-yard line while down by 14 points with 10 and a half minutes remaining... Pittsburgh never saw the ball again. It's a lot harder to mount comebacks when your coach isn't even trying.
  • The Steelers likely will go all out to beat the Bengals in Week 18 even if the Ravens have already beaten Cleveland, because a win gives Pittsburgh the No. 5 seed (and a trip to Houston) in that scenario, whereas a loss combined with a Chargers win (at LV) drops Pittsburgh down to No. 6 and sets up another trip to Baltimore.
    • The difference in difficulty between facing Houston and Baltimore is enormous right now, ICYMI.
    • The Ravens play before the Steelers on Saturday, so Pittsburgh will already know whether or not there's a chance to win the division.

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR Xavier Worthy

Stock ⬇️:   RB Najee Harris

  Chiefs Injuries 🚑: RB Isiah Pacheco (ribs), DT Mike Pennel (hamstring)

               

Ravens (31) at Texans (2) 

Ravens Personnel: 11 - 15% / 12 - 28% / 21 - 20% / 22 - 10% / 6OL - 23%

61 Plays — 20 DBs — 12.1 aDOT — 11-of-17 for 184 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBLamar Jackson84% 4-87-1   60    
RBDerrick Henry66%8-44%27-147-12-18-020351213%1.2-2.1
RBKeaton Mitchell26%3-17%11-20-01-28-01-66325%7.0-5.9
RBRasheen Ali8%1-6%1--3-0   820%0.0 
FBPatrick Ricard57%4-22%    2476%0.11.7
TEIsaiah Likely77%14-78% 1-9-1114371921%1.78.5
TEMark Andrews56%12-67% 2-68-1223372021%2.29.8
WRZay Flowers66%13-72% 2-31-0574482727%2.510.8
WRRashod Bateman44%11-61% 1-12-0111422417%1.814.9
WRTylan Wallace36%5-28% 1-2-01-214516%2.85.9
WRDevontez Walker25%5-28% 0-0-02648325%1.830.5
WRAnthony Miller13%3-17% 1-16-01165333%5.316.3
  • RB Derrick Henry had five carries for 26 yards and a TD on the opening drive and three carries for 35 yards on the second series. The Ravens kept feeding him, including oddly giving him a carry on their final drive after removing the other starters. Henry has already earned all available incentives but should be busy Week 18 with the Ravens needing a win over the Browns to clinch the AFC North and the No. 3 seed.
    • With Justice Hill in concussion protocol, Rasheen Ali filled in as the No. 2 RB and played 29% of snaps in the first quarter but then missed the rest of the game with a knee injury.
      • Keaton Mitchell took 14% of snaps in Q2/Q3, getting one carry and one target, while Derrick Henry played 86% of snaps and took 16 touches.
      • Mitchell then played 73% of snaps in the fourth quarter, taking nine carries for 19 yards on Baltimore's final two drives.
  • TE Mark Andrews had 74% snap share and 80% route share before the fourth quarter, with his two targets being a 67-yard gain on a scramble drill and then a one-yard TD.
    • It was Andrews' fifth straight game with at least 60% route share and exactly one TD.
  • TE Isaiah Likely also scored a TD, and before the fourth quarter he had 74% snap share and 74% route share, about the same as Andrews.
  • WR Zay Flowers had no obvious issues with his shoulder injury, handling 87% snap share and 87% route share before the fourth quarter. He was targeted on Lamar Jackson's first three pass attempts, catching two balls for 30 yards, but saw just two more looks the rest of the game (on a day when Jackson attempted a mere 15 passes).
    • Flowers was the only Raven with more than two targets, accounting for one-third of the total before starters were pulled.
  • The Ravens clinch the division title and No. 3 seed with a Week 18 home win over Cleveland or a Week 18 Pittsburgh loss (vs. CIN). If the reverse happens and the Steelers win while the Ravens lose, Baltimore then heads to Houston, which might not be a bad thing, especially because it increases the odds of facing Kansas City instead of Buffalo in the first round (I know a lot of people would rather face the Bills no matter what, especially after the Ravens destroyed them in October, but I'd rather face the Chiefs. The Bills have played better than the Chiefs pretty consistently for two months now.
    • The Ravens open the week as 17.5-point favorites and won't want to hand Pittsburgh the division title, so there's zero chance of pulling starters or going easy to potentially score more favorable playoff matchups. There's also not much chance of Cleveland pulling off an upset, although the odds may shrink down to 13 or 14 if Jameis Winston returns from his shoulder injury to replace Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting QB.

     

Texans Personnel: 11 - 80% / 12 - 20%

54 Plays — 38 DBs — 9.5 aDOT — 18-of-32 for 190 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBC.J. Stroud87% 1-7-0   61 100%0.019.6
QBDavis Mills13%     8    
RBJoe Mixon48%13-35%9-26-02-13-03-15402022%1.3-0.3
RBDare Ogunbowale26%8-22%2-12-01-6-015181515%1.01.4
RBDameon Pierce26%6-16%5-13-0   855%0.1-1.8
TEDalton Schultz70%29-78% 2-21-0637503218%1.17.6
TECade Stover33%7-19% 1-1-01-2251118%1.14.5
WRXavier Hutchinson72%27-73% 2-21-0455281510%0.511.1
WRJohn Metchie72%30-81% 5-48-0878281916%1.19.1
WRNico Collins70%29-78% 3-59-06118433029%3.011.6
WRRobert Woods35%13-35% 2-21-0218221217%1.09.6
WRJared Wayne30%8-22%    1360%0.0 
  • RB Joe Mixon was subbed out for a lot of pass plays for a third straight week, playing only 48% of snaps overall and 51% before the fourth quarter.
    • Matchups have been a big part of the problem, but Mixon's role and performance level also have declined, dropping him to RB2 status after he was an elite RB1 for much of the year. His ADP for 2025 may not be much different than it was in 2024 (fifth round, I believe). He has a $4 million guaranteed for his $7 million base salary next year, making him highly unlikely to be released
    • He's been losing playing time to Dare Ogunbowale more so than Dameon Pierce, whose five carries Wednesday all came on the final drive (Pierce played just 18% of snaps before the fourth quarter, compared to 31% for Ogunbowale.
    • Mixon has three consecutive games playing less than two-thirds of the snaps while taking 17 or fewer touches for 71 or fewer yards with no TD.
    • Mixon needs seven rushing yards next week to reach 1,000 and 107 yards to reach a $250k incentive for 1,100 yards. The Texans are locked in as the AFC's No. 4 seed and may rest starters / pull some of them early Week 18 at Tennessee. It's also possible they go all-out for the win, given how poorly they've played of late
  • WR John Metchie led the team in routes (81%) and targets (eight), although WR Xavier Hutchinson got about the same amount of playing time (73% routes)
    • Metchie had 79% route share before the fourth quarter, running just one fewer route than Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz (82% share).
    • Metchie took 69% of his snaps in the slot. He's played exactly half his snaps there this year, with Stefon Diggs (43% slot rate) being the only other Houston WR above 27%.
  • WR Tank Dell was diagnosed with a torn ACL, LCL and MCL, in addition to meniscus damage and a kneecap dislocation. He's more likely to miss all of 2025 than to be ready for Week 1, although a mid/late-season return isn't yet out of the question.
  • The Texans are the No. 4 seed in the AFC and likely will host the Steelers or Chargers in the wild-card round. A rematch with the Ravens is also possible, but only if Baltimore loses to the Browns.

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR John Metchie

Stock ⬇️:   RB Joe Mixon

  Ravens Injuries 🚑: RB Rasheen Ali (hip)

         

Seahawks (6) at  Bears (3) 

Seahawks Personnel: 11 - 84% / 12 - 14%

51 Plays — 28 DBs — 3.4 aDOT — 17-of-23 for 160 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBGeno Smith100% 3-19-0   59 0%0.0 
RBZach Charbonnet76%14-54%15-57-03-19-03-14312121%1.3-1.3
RBKenny McIntosh24%4-15%7-46-0   9512%0.80.9
TENoah Fant57%19-73% 4-43-054382817%1.35.5
TEPharaoh Brown35%2-8% 1-4-01-217718%1.04.3
TEAJ Barner25%1-4%    271417%1.13.9
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba96%25-96% 3-32-0640523623%2.09.2
WRDK Metcalf88%24-92% 3-42-0331523621%1.913.4
WRTyler Lockett69%22-85% 3-20-0415433214%1.110.6
WRJake Bobo27%6-23%    18912%0.88.6
  • RB Zach Charbonnet had 77% snap share, 54% route share and 18 of 25 RB opportunities, which is similar to the role Kenneth Walker (IR - ankle) had for much of the season. Charbonnet handled an even larger share of the workload in some of the games Walker missed previously.
    • RB Kenny McIntosh played 12 snaps (23%) and took seven carries for 46 yards. He took carries on three consecutive plays during the opening drive, sandwiching a 25-yard between a pair of two-yarders. He took two more carries for eight yards late in the first quarter, then had just two carries and seven snaps the rest of the game.
  • WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the team in targets for a third straight week, but his three yards and 32 catches were his worst marks since Oct. 20, ending an eight-game streak with at least four catches and 69 yards.
    • JSN is four catches away from 100.
  • WR DK Metcalf has just 13 targets over the past three weeks and 19 over the past four. He hasn't topped 70 yards since Oct. 20 or 100 yards since Sept. 30, but he'll still get to 1,000 yards this season (with two missed games) if he records 61 yards Week 18 (the Seahawks will try to get him there, 
  • TE Noah Fant has seven straight games with either three or four catches, and he still hasn't scored a TD this year (43-437-0 on 58 tgts, 13 games). The Seahawks might try to get him one Week 18, especially because he also had 400-plus yards without a TD last year. He's played 32 playoff games and one regular-season game plus one playoff contest since he last caught a TD in Dec. 2022.
  • The Seahawks were eliminated Sunday when Washington's win clinched a tiebreaker for the Rams. Still, the Rams-Seahawks matchup is one of the Week 18 games least likely to have starters pulled early, scaled back, etc. 

     

Bears Personnel: 11 - 81% / 12 - 12%

58 Plays — 38 DBs — 6.4 aDOT — 16-of-28 for 122 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 7 sacks, 3 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBCaleb Williams100% 5-37-0   62    
RBD'Andre Swift64%16-46%12-53-04-28-05-10412317%1.3-0.7
RBRoschon Johnson34%9-26%4-5-0   201413%0.81.0
TECole Kmet93%26-74%    553312%1.17.0
TEGerald Everett9%2-6% 0-0-011914812%0.32.9
WRKeenan Allen95%35-100% 5-25-0840533425%1.59.8
WRDJ Moore95%32-91%2-8-06-54-0845593722%1.57.9
WRRome Odunze91%33-94% 1-15-0471533418%1.313.8
  • RB D'Andre Swift took 66% of snaps, 47% route share and 17 of 21 RB opportunities, losing a bit more playing time to Roschon Johnson compared to the previous week, albeit with Johnson getting just one carry in each quarter (and no targets on nine routes).
  • QB Caleb Williams had seven sacks and three scrambles on 38 dropbacks, attempting just 38 passes and throwing for 122 yards.
    • WR DJ Moore got by with 6-54-0 receiving and two carries for eight yards, but Keenan Allen (5-25-0 on 8 tgts) and Rome Odunze (1-15-0 on 4 tgts) both turned in duds.
  • TE Cole Kmet finished without a target on 26 routes (77%). He somehow has just four targets over the past four games and six targets over the past five games despite consistently running routes on 70+ percent of dropbacks. His utter lack of targets explains how Allen, Moore and Odunze all have gotten so many recently (that, plus a bad defense and poor running game).

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB Kenny McIntosh

Stock ⬇️:   QB Caleb Williams, TE Cole Kmet

  Seahawks Injuries 🚑: CB Josh Jobe (knee)    

         

Chargers (40) at Patriots (7) 

Chargers Personnel: 11 - 49% / 12 - 5% / 21 - 17% / 22 - 20%

77 Plays — 43 DBs — 10.0 aDOT — 26-of-40 for 281 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 3 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBJustin Herbert87% 3-12-0   58    
RBJ.K. Dobbins53%12-30%19-76-11-7-01-5392122%0.9-1.7
RBHassan Haskins35%13-33%8-30-01-10-013768%1.32.1
RBKimani Vidal12%4-10%5-24-00-0-0224181213%0.95.5
FBScott Matlock44%7-18%    20611%0.61.2
TEWill Dissly45%15-38% 2-21-03-1341925%1.94.4
TETucker Fisk42%8-20% 1-8-01522819%0.92.8
TEStone Smartt32%16-40% 2-23-022214919%2.210.3
WRLadd McConkey77%34-85% 8-94-210113432825%2.59.9
WRQuentin Johnston69%33-83% 5-48-0882412423%1.511.3
WRD.J. Chark36%9-23% 0-0-045011721%0.79.8
WRJoshua Palmer36%20-50% 4-41-0692382418%1.615.2
WRDerius Davis18%6-15%1--3-02-29-12169528%1.94.0
  • RB J.K. Dobbins returned from injured reserve and took 61% of snaps and 20 of 28 RB opportunities before the Chargers pulled their starters. His two-yard TD run was the final snap for him and a bunch of other starters, including QB Justin Herbert.
    • Dobbins took 19 of 25 RB carries before the fourth quarter, but with only one of the three targets and 32% route share.
      • Hassan Haskins took 32% of snaps with the starters and also had 32% route share. He got four carries with the starters and four with the backups.
      • Kimani Vidal played only 7% of snaps with the starters. He got two carries and one target with the starters, then added three carries at the end.
  • WR Ladd McConkey put up 8-94-2, giving him 77-1,054-7 for the season and 13 straight games with at least 43 receiving yards. McConkey has six straight games with at least 14.3 PPR points and six targets.
  • WR Joshua Palmer suffered a heel injury in the third quarter and missed the rest of the game. He took 44% of snaps with the starters, and DJ Chark got 28%. 
    • Chark and Derius Davis (who scored a TD in this one) are the candidates to take over Palmer's snaps/routes if he misses time.
  • TE Will Dissly played only 45% of snaps with the starters and had 40% route share through three quarters. It was his first game back in action after missing two weeks with a shoulder injury.
    • TE Stone Smartt also had 40% route share before the fourth quarter, mostly playing on the team's pass plays on first and third down (he played just 23% of third-down snaps, compared to Dissly's 69%).
  • The Chargers will either be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the AFC. There's a big difference between the two spots, as No. 5 will face the slumping Texans (No. 4) while No. 6 likely heads to Baltimore.
    • The Chargers need a win plus a Pittsburgh loss to move up from No. 6 to No. 5 and avoid the Baltimore matchup. There's also a very unlikely scenario in which the Chargers and Ravens lose and the Steelers win... which would then make Pittsburgh the No. 3 seed and send the Chargers to Pittsburgh (while Baltimore travels to Houston).
    • The NFL doesn't care at all about doing this fairly and put the AFC North games on Saturday, which means the Chargers will already know before kickoff Sunday if their own game has seeding implications, i.e., if the Steelers win Saturday it means the Chargers are locked in as No. 6 and may rest some players or remove them early.

     

Patriots Personnel: 11 - 88% / 12 - 12%

48 Plays — 33 DBs — 8.6 aDOT — 13-of-24 for 115 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks, 5 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBDrake Maye79% 6-32-0   53 0%0.0 
RBAntonio Gibson58%8-29%12-63-00-0-01-2191019%1.5-0.6
RBRhamondre Stevenson42%12-43%2-1-00-0-01-5372017%0.7-1.1
TEHunter Henry54%17-61% 0-0-0219492923%1.67.3
TEAustin Hooper44%9-32% 3-19-0316311623%2.07.1
WRDeMario Douglas94%27-96% 4-46-1543372422%1.65.4
WRKayshon Boutte75%23-82% 4-28-0557482816%1.214.4
WRKendrick Bourne71%22-79% 2-22-0443362215%1.29.6
WRJa'Lynn Polk25%5-18% 0-0-0121271614%0.412.2
WRJavon Baker23%4-14% 0-0-0156316%0.014.0
  • Patriots coach Jerod Mayo said he was going to start Antonio Gibson after Rhamondre Stevenson had his seventh fumble of the season last week. Instead, Stevenson got the start but played 42% of snaps and got just two carries and one target.
    • Gibson played 58% of snaps, but seven of his 12 carries came on the final two drives when the Patriots had removed some starters (before that he had five carries and one target on 43% snap share).
    • Stevenson played 57% of snaps before the last two series.
  • QB Drake Maye missed a drive in the first half after taking a hard hit. He went to the locker room but then cleared concussion protocol and played the rest of the game until Jacoby Brissett took over again deep in garbage time.
  • WR DeMario Douglas played a season-high 94% of snaps and had season-high 96% route share. That's mostly because the Patriots used 11 personnel on a season-high 88% of snaps in extreme negative game script, after using 12 personnel on at least one-fourth of plays nearly every other week. 
    • But also, Douglas took four of eight snaps in 12 personnel (50%), up from 35% in Week 16 and 26% in Week 15. Prior to a Week 14 bye, he played just 14% of New England's 297 snaps in 12 personnel. That's a good sign for next season, although how much it matters/applies to next season is unclear, as New England's roster and/or coaching staff may look very different.
  • WR Kendrick Bourne was a full-time player for the second straight week, taking 91% of snaps before the final two drives (on which he was replaced by Ja'Lynn Polk).
  • The Giants' win Saturday means New England gets the No. 1 overall pick with a loss to the Bills in Week 18. That might sound like a given, but Buffalo likely will rest/pull a lot of starters, and New England's players/coaches may not care about the No. 1 pick (especially after getting Drake Maye last year).

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB J.K. Dobbins

Stock ⬇️:   RB Rhamondre Stevenson

  Chargers Injuries 🚑: WR Joshua Palmer (heel), S Elijah Molden (leg)

  Patriots Injuries 🚑: CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion)

         

Broncos (24) at Bengals (30) 

Broncos Personnel: 11 - 70% / 12 - 8%

60 Plays — 39 DBs — 7.6 aDOT — 24-of-31 for 219 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 6 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBBo Nix100% 7-31-0   61 50%1.02.3
RBJavonte Williams37%16-48% 2-0-021332124%1.1-0.6
RBAudric Estime30%6-18%9-24-01-13-01-110514%0.8-2.7
RBJaleel McLaughlin23%3-9%10-69-02-7-02-517822%0.6-3.5
FBMichael Burton13%4-12%    9417%1.12.3
TEAdam Trautman48%10-30% 1-5-038321514%1.26.1
TELucas Krull40%18-55% 1-3-01-1231612%0.85.0
TENate Adkins37%7-21% 1-7-01-422911%0.83.9
WRCourtland Sutton93%31-94% 5-55-19120533225%1.913.0
WRDevaughn Vele50%21-64% 2-27-0221332319%1.68.0
WRMarvin Mims47%17-52%1--1-08-103-2870171128%2.78.3
WRLil'Jordan Humphrey45%8-24%    311617%1.16.3
WRTroy Franklin33%13-39% 1--1-0227231522%1.113.9
  • RB Javonte Williams took just 37% of snaps and two of 24 RB opportunities (zero of 19 carries, two of five targets).
    • Jaleel McLaughlin returned from a one-week absence due to a quad injury and got only 23% of snaps but 12 of 24 RB opportunities, touching the ball on all but two of the plays when he was on the field.
    • Audric Estime got slightly more playing time than McLaughlin but one fewer target and one fewer carry, finishing with 30% snap share and 10 touches for 37 yards.
      • McLaughlin may be tiny, but he's done much better than the other guys for the past month, making his case for more work Week 18 (and possibly the playoffs).
  • WR Marvin Mims drew targets on eight of his 17 routes and caught all eight of them for 103 yards and two TDs, but his snap/route shares were essentially the same as the week before, right around 50%
    • That's a big improvement compared to pre-W16, but still far from ideal. He made his first start since Week 1, and obviously is building a strong case for more playing time, with 165 yards on 13 targets the past two weeks (and 383 yards and four TDs on 28 targets over his past six games).
    • Mims' performance obviously warrants more playing time, but that hasn't always been Sean Payton's M.O. On the other hand, Mims did get 73% route share and 63% snap share after the third quarter Saturday, so it won't be any surprise if he elevates to that level for Week 18 and/or the playoffs.
  • WR Devaughn Vele's 64% route share was second on the team, ahead of TE Lucas Krull (55%) and Mims (52%).
    • Apart from Javonte Williams losing playing time, Denver's snap and route shares for Week 17 were very similar to Week 16.
  • The Broncos open as 9.5-point favorites for a Week 18 home game against the Chiefs, with oddsmakers assuming Andy Reid will take his usual approach of either holding starters out or pulling them early when his season finale doesn't have seeding implications.
    • A win puts Denver in as the No. 7 seed, while a loss means the Broncos only make it if both Miami and Cincinnati lose. Every team appears to have tiebreakers over the Broncos, so they can't go any higher than No. 7 even if the other wild-card teams (Chargers, probably Steelers) both lose.

     

Bengals Personnel: 11 - 64% / 12 - 25%

84 Plays — 58 DBs — 7.4 aDOT — 39-of-49 for 412 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 7 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBJoe Burrow100% 4-25-1   63    
RBChase Brown80%32-57%20-67-04-24-040402421%1.20.7
RBKhalil Herbert21%6-11%4-23-0   6311%0.4-1.5
TEDrew Sample61%18-32% 1-3-012361810%0.51.7
TEMike Gesicki57%40-71% 10-86-01268282320%1.67.9
TECam Grandy19%6-11% 1-7-0109517%0.81.8
WRJa'Marr Chase98%56-100% 9-102-015117584025%2.59.1
WRAndrei Iosivas79%44-79% 3-59-0444493211%0.911.6
WRTee Higgins67%45-80% 11-131-312130503626%2.210.5
WRJermaine Burton6%3-5%    9715%1.222.5
  • RB Chase Brown injured his ankle near the end of regulation while giving himself up short of the goal line to keep the clock running and set up a game-winning chip shot. Prior to the injury, Brown played every single snap on offense and got all 24 RB opportunities.
    • After Brown's departure, Khalil Herbert took 100% of snaps and all four RB opportunities, gaining 23 yards.
    • Brown reportedly has a chance to play Saturday against Pittsburgh.
  • Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki each got at least a dozen targets, with Higgins scoring all three receiving TDs and also having the most yardage (131).
    • Chase's 9-102-0 receiving line kept him on track for the receiving triple crown.
  • Gesicki's 71% route share represented a huge boost compared to the previous three games (35%, 47%, 37%) and put him over 50% for the first time since Week 11.
    • His 12 targets and 10 catches also were season highs, and it was Gesicki's first time drawing more than five targets in a game Higgins played.
      • Gesicki likely will drop off considerably Week 18, but it was at least interesting to see that he has this kind of usage in his range of outcomes when Higgins is active, as there was nothing to hint at the possibility before.
  • The Bengals get the No. 7 seed if they beat the Steelers in Week 18 while the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and the Dolphins lose to the Jets. It doesn't look good, especially with KC unlikely to play starters for a full game, but the Bengals technically still have a shot.

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB Khalil Herbert  /   WR Marvin Mims, RB Jaleel McLaughlin

Stock ⬇️:   RB Javonte Williams

  Bengals Injuries 🚑: RB Chase Brown (ankle), RT Amarius Mims (hand)

         

Cardinals (9) at Rams (13) 

Cardinals Personnel: 11 - 62% / 12 - 20% / 13 - 14%

74 Plays — 54 DBs — 6.6 aDOT — 33-of-48 for 321 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 4 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBKyler Murray100% 4-32-0   59    
RBMichael Carter70%29-56%13-70-02-11-02-3382716%0.9-1.3
RBJames Conner16%5-10%4-4-02-4-03-8371922%1.7-1.9
RBDeeJay Dallas15%6-12% 1-5-01-68713%0.4-2.2
TETrey McBride93%47-90% 12-123-11686553130%2.36.3
TEElijah Higgins28%14-27% 2-23-03723917%1.25.1
TETip Reiman28%10-19%    2598%0.41.4
WRMichael Wilson88%46-88%1-7-04-22-0657482915%1.211.4
WRMarvin Harrison85%46-88% 6-96-010141483023%1.713.6
WRZay Jones41%24-46% 1-19-012020144%0.310.2
WRGreg Dortch31%17-33% 3-18-032241618%1.24.5
  • RB James Conner played through the knee injury he suffered the week before, only to aggravate it early in the second quarter and miss the rest of the game.
    • RB Michael Carter took 87% of snaps and 14 of 15 RB opportunities after Conner's exit, with DeeJay Dallas getting 14% snap share and one target.
    • Prior to his early exit, Conner got only 50% of snaps but seven of the eight RB opportunities, with Carter taking 38% of snaps and one carry.
    • I don't really understand why Carter spent most of the season lingering on the practice squad (and generally hasn't been wanted in the NFL for two years now). He was a great college player, a fourth-round pick and has always played at least decently when given the chance. He's good enough to be a No. 2 back, and would've been helpful to the Bengals, Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Raiders, Broncos, Panthers, Chargers, Vikings, Commanders and 49ers at various points this year.
  • TE Trey McBride finally scored his first receiving TD of the season, on a tunnel screen from the 1-yard line. He had double-digit targets for a fifth time in the past six games, averaging 9.2 catches for 88.2 yards on 11.8 targets in that span.
  • WR Marvin Harrison had his most targets (10) since Week 13 and his most catches (six) and yards (96) since Week 8.

     

Rams Personnel: 11 - 91% / 12 - 9%

54 Plays — 33 DBs — 7.0 aDOT — 17-of-32 for 189 yards — 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBMatthew Stafford100% 6-16-0   61 0%0.0 
RBKyren Williams94%22-69%13-56-13-16-037533012%0.6-1.0
RBBlake Corum6% 3--4-0   8427%1.8-1.2
TEColby Parkinson41%10-31% 0-0-019342017%1.05.8
TETyler Higbee31%8-25% 2-9-031416736%1.43.9
TEHunter Long20%4-13%    16614%0.93.2
TEDavis Allen17%7-22% 0-0-0117211110%0.34.5
WRPuka Nacua96%30-94% 10-129-01477422539%3.77.7
WRCooper Kupp85%27-84% 1-29-0327503029%2.07.8
WRDemarcus Robinson80%28-88% 0-0-0248492913%0.916.0
WRTutu Atwell15%4-13%    231424%2.312.3
WRJordan Whittington15%4-13% 1-6-010181523%2.05.6
  • WR Puka Nacua accounted for half of the Rams' targets and 68% of their receiving yards.
    • Nacua was ejected from a Week 9 win at Seattle. Since then, he's averaging 8.4 catches for 104.8 yards and 0.38 TDs on 11.1 targets per game, while Cooper Kupp is averaging 4.1 catches for 51.0 yards and 0.5 TDs on 6.4 targets per game.
      • Kupp had exactly three targets in each of the three weeks of fantasy playoffs (15-17), catching four passes for 53 yards in that time. He won't be a top-40 fantasy pick next year, as his volume/value appears largely tied to Nacua's health (or lack thereof) for an offense that's not nearly as pass-heavy as it once was.
    • Nacua's 38.5% target share in the eight-game stretch would be the highest single-season mark on record in modern times if maintained over a full year (which he might reasonably have done if not for his knee injury and the ejection). His air-yard share (36.1 percent) isn't nearly as dominant, with Cooper Kupp getting 26% AYS and Demarcus Robinson at 18% over the eight-game stretch. That's nitpicking, of course. Nacua figures to be a first-round fantasy pick next year.
  • RB Blake Corum took carries on three consecutive plays late in the first quarter, losing four yards in total. He didn't play any snaps thereafter
    • Kyren Williams played 95% of snaps and got 16 of 19 RB opportunities, taking a larger share of the RB work relative to recent weeks (a possible hint of what we might see in the playoffs, although it may also have been related to Corum's lack of success on his early touches).
  • The TEs rotated again, with four logging 18-40% of snaps.
  • The Rams have something to play for Week 18. A win makes them the No. 3 seed and gives them a first-round matchup with Washington (most likely) or Green Bay. A loss in combination with a Tampa Bay win would drop the Rams to No. 4 and leave them hosting the loser of the Detroit/Minnesota game Week 18. Obviously, you'd rather avoid Detroit and Minnesota for as long as possible.
    • Tampa Bay plays before the Rams on Sunday, i.e., the Rams could rest key players if the Bucs somehow end up losing to the Saints (as 14.5-point home favorites).
      • The Rams opened as 2.5-point home underdogs to Seattle, which reflects concern about Sean McVay resting starters (even though doing so would increase his odds of facing the Lions or Vikings in Round 1). I don't at all agree, but there seem to be a lot of Rams fans saying the team should rest starters and they don't care about being No. 3 rather than No. 4 in the seeding.

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB Michael Carter

Stock ⬇️:   WR Cooper Kupp, RB Blake Corum

  Cardinals Injuries 🚑: RB James Conner (knee)    

         

Colts (33) at Giants (45) 

Colts Personnel: 11 - 67% / 12 - 30%

73 Plays — 41 DBs — 10.0 aDOT — 26-of-38 for 330 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBJoe Flacco100% 1-1-0   53    
RBJonathan Taylor89%24-60%32-125-22-11-044472113%0.6-1.1
RBTrey Sermon8%3-8% 1-10-01314916%0.9-0.5
RBTyler Goodson3%1-3%    9819%0.81.0
TEDrew Ogletree55%10-25%    24914%0.910.0
TEMo Alie-Cox42%8-20% 0-0-0121271218%1.29.3
TEKylen Granson38%22-55% 3-34-049241413%0.910.6
WRAlec Pierce95%36-90% 6-122-19193482617%2.021.3
WRMichael Pittman93%38-95% 9-109-11076532825%1.810.4
WRJosh Downs59%26-65% 3-22-0424402431%2.36.6
WRAdonai Mitchell10%5-13% 2-22-0441221228%1.614.6
  • RB Jonathan Taylor took 89% of snaps and 36 of 37 RB opportunities, gaining 136 total yards and two TDs. 
    • It was Taylor's fourth straight game with at least 22 carries and 96 rushing yards, and he's now averaging 20.7 carries for 96.5 yards per game on the season, with five of his 11 TDs coming over the past two weeks. Apart from a lack of receiving volume (29 targets, 17 catches) his per-game numbers aren't too far off from his spectacular 2021 campaign (19.5 carries for 106.5 yards per game).
  • WRs Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman both topped 100 yards and scored a TD on 9-10 targets, while Josh Downs surprisingly drew just four targets after previously being Joe Flacco's favorite pass catcher for much of the season.
    • It didn't help that Giants slot corner Dru Phillips is one of their best players, but the Colts moved Downs around a lot, so it's not like he was guarded by Phillips all game. Also, Downs still isn't getting playing time in two-wide sets, although I think he'll bounce back anyway Week 18 (if Flacco starts again).
    • Pierce could've had an even bigger game. There was a play on which he drew a DPI flag deep downfield but also had the ball in his hands, only to lose it when he hit the ground.
  • The Colts are eliminated from playoff contention. It's unclear if that impacts Week 18 availability for QB Anthony Richardson, who missed practice all last week with back and foot injuries, then was downgraded from 'questionable' to 'out' on Saturday.

     

Giants Personnel: 11 - 62% / 12 - 19% / 6OL - 17%

53 Plays — 24 DBs — 8.3 aDOT — 17-of-23 for 309 yards — 4 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBDrew Lock100% 5-0-1   42    
RBTyrone Tracy66%11-48%20-59-02-14-036362119%1.00.2
RBDevin Singletary26%8-35%5-21-01-9-011251516%0.8-2.7
RBEric Gray9%     8519%1.5-2.3
TEDaniel Bellinger89%16-70%    191210%0.85.5
TEChris Manhertz45%2-9% 1-12-0171978%0.46.8
WRMalik Nabers83%23-100% 7-171-2874573632%2.39.6
WRDarius Slayton79%19-83% 1-32-1339523215%1.213.5
WRWan'Dale Robinson64%21-91% 5-71-1656483325%1.35.3
WRJalin Hyatt19%3-13%    21139%0.317.8
  • RB Tyrone Tracy took 66% of snaps and 23 of 28 RB opportunities. Nearly all of his production came early in the game, but he continued getting more work than Devin Singletary throughout, including all three carries (albeit for only four yards) when the Giants were trying to run clock at the end.
    • Tracy had a similar snap share the previous week (60%), but with only 11 touches in a blowout loss to the Falcons.
  • WR Malik Nabers scored twice from outside the red zone on YAC-heavy plays, finishing with 7-171-2 on a team-high eight targets.
  • QB Drew Lock bounced back from throwing two pick-sixes the week before and shockingly threw for four TDs on just 23 pass attempts, plus he ran one in himself.
  • WR Jalin Hyatt took a chunk of Darius Slayton's snaps for much of November/December, but it's been back to Slayton in a full-time role and Hyatt barely playing for two weeks now.
    • Slayton has an incentive-laden contract but would need 198 yards, 11 receptions or four TDs to reach any of them. Not happening, obviously.
  • WR Wan'Dale Robinson had a quiet first half besides his five-yard TD catch, but he piled on catches later in the game, giving him back-to-back weeks with 5+ catches for 62+ yards after he'd gone nine consecutive games with no more than 51 yards or 10.1 PPR points.
  • The Giants don't have draft tiebreakers working in their favor, so the win dropped them all the way from first to fourth, behind the Patriots, Titans and Browns. They might still be able to get a tiebreaker over Cleveland, but not New England or Tennessee. Falling out of the Top 5 is unlikely, but it's not nearly as unlikely as returning to No. 1.
    • I'm not a fan of tanking for draft position in the NFL, but in this case it's easy enough to understand why some fans might be disappointed. Oh well, such is life.

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB Tyrone Tracy  /   WR Alec Pierce

Stock ⬇️:   WR Josh Downs

  Giants Injuries 🚑: DL Armon Watts (knee) 

         

Titans (13) at Jaguars (20) 

Titans Personnel: 11 - 92% / 12 - 2%

64 Plays — 38 DBs — 8.8 aDOT — 19-of-31 for 193 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks, 4 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBMason Rudolph100% 5-23-0   60    
RBTyjae Spears64%12-35%20-95-03-8-044251625%1.6-1.3
RBJulius Chestnut36%17-50%3-17-00-0-011759%0.3-0.8
TEChig Okonkwo72%30-88%1-17-05-42-0748392420%1.45.8
TENick Vannett19%2-6% 1-8-11422822%1.32.3
TEJosh Whyle13%2-6% 0-0-0116191021%1.55.4
WRNick Westbrook-Ikhine100%33-97% 3-37-0673422414%1.212.5
WRCalvin Ridley94%33-97%1-7-05-84-0683503123%1.915.1
WRTyler Boyd80%29-85% 2-14-0434382614%1.07.1
  • RB Tyjae Spears took on a huge workload with Tony Pollard (ankle/illness) inactive for the first time this year, but Spears then entered concussion protocol late in the third quarter and missed the rest of the game.
    • Spears had a concussion in mid-November and missed one game. That was his first concussion on record, including college. The prior concern with his medical record was his right knee, in which he tore the ACL in 2015 (high school) and again in 2020 (college). He also suffered meniscus damage with the second injury, and it was reported last spring that he doesn't have an ACL in his right knee.
    • Pollard may return for Week 18. HC Brian Callahan wasn't optimistic Monday about Spears' chances of playing (I'd be shocked, personally, given it's his second concussion of the year.
  • TE Chig Okonkwo didn't quite match his double-digit targets from the previous two games, but Okonkwo led the Titans in targets for a third straight week while handling season-high 88% route share (86% the week before).
    • There's obviously some fatigue when it comes to arguing for Okonkwo breakouts on the basis of late-season production surges the year before. But I think the argument for 2025 is stronger than in past years, as his 2024 surge has been accompanied by gains in both target rate and routes run... plus he's likely to get a new QB in the offseason.
  • WR Calvin Ridley is 59 yards away from his third 1,000-yard season.
  • The Titans are positioned to pick No. 2/3 overall in April, with a shot to move up to No. 1 if they lose and the Patriots win in Week 18. They'll apparently use both of their QBs in Week 18...

     

Jaguars Personnel: 11 - 70% / 12 - 16%

57 Plays — 26 DBs — 6.3 aDOT — 15-of-22 for 174 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBMac Jones100% 6-22-0   45    
RBTravis Etienne47%7-29%15-49-01-26-02-1312022%1.10.0
RBTank Bigsby40%6-25%11-33-00-0-0114231010%0.4-1.1
RBD'Ernest Johnson12%6-25% 2-11-02-8141117%1.00.3
TEBrenton Strange72%16-67% 0-0-014311721%1.56.3
TELuke Farrell49%8-33%    22818%0.74.5
WRBrian Thomas86%24-100%1-18-07-91-11077452927%2.611.1
WRParker Washington84%23-96% 3-31-1332312114%1.111.2
WRJosh Reynolds49%15-63%    281812%1.111.1
WRTim Jones19%2-8% 1-11-01101049%0.77.2
WRDevin Duvernay16%5-21% 1-4-013161213%0.79.9
  • RBs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby had a near-even workload split, with Etienne getting 47% of snaps and 17 opportunities while Bigsby took 40% snap share and 12 opps.
    • The week before, Etienne got 51% of snaps and 12 opportunities, with Bigsby at 30% snaps and 13 opps. Etienne's advantage in terms of routes run isn't quite as large as one might expect, as D'Ernest Johnson has taken some of that work the past two weeks.
    • Bigsby hasn't topped 4.5 YPC in a game since Week 5, and he now has four straight weeks since Jacksonville's bye with 11-18 carries for 33-55 yards. Etienne hasn't fared any better, at least on the ground, averaging 3.8 YPC for a second straight year.
  • WR Brian Thomas is up to five straight weeks with double-digit targets and at least 16.6 PPR points, consistently putting up massive usage and production with QB Mac Jones.
    • Thomas is locked in as a top-18 pick for PPR leagues in 2025, with a chance to go in the first round more often than not. It's unclear if Christian Kirk and Evan Engram will be back in Jacksonville next year. Gabe Davis' contract suggests he'll return, but he's coming off his worst real-life season and rehabbing from meniscus surgery. Basically, Thomas is a candidate to lead the NFL in targets next year, in addition to projecting for a huge portion of Jacksonville's high-value opportunities on deep throws and near the goal line. 
  • WR Josh Reynolds replaced Devin Duvernay as the No. 3 receiver, which put Parker Washington back in the slot for 70% of his snaps, after Washington had four straight games playing more than half his snaps on the perimeter.
  • The Jaguars technically could pick anywhere from 1st to 10th in the draft, but realistically they'll end up somewhere between second and ninth (moving up to No. 1 would require losses from four teams, plus tiebreaker help) and very likely in the range of 3-8.

    

Stock ⬆️:   TE Chig Okonkwo

Stock ⬇️:   RB Tank Bigsby

 Titans Injuries 🚑: RB Tyjae Spears (concussion), RT Jaelyn Duncan (shoulder)

         

Raiders (25) at Saints (10) 

Raiders Personnel: 11 - 35% / 12 - 50%

74 Plays — 36 DBs — 10.1 aDOT — 20-of-35 for 242 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 1 sack, 0 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBAidan O'Connell100% 3--1-0   44    
RBAmeer Abdullah62%20-56%20-115-03-32-047282218%1.00.2
RBAlexander Mattison31%10-28%10-32-01-6-03-10291724%1.6-0.6
RBChris Collier4% 3-6-0   3    
TEBrock Bowers91%29-81%1--1-07-77-0751543528%2.25.6
TEMichael Mayer74%18-50% 1-14-0215402315%0.76.5
TEHarrison Bryant11%2-6%    16819%1.33.7
WRTre Tucker91%35-97%1-5-02-24-18152563713%0.912.4
WRJakobi Meyers82%32-89% 5-61-19106573823%1.79.5
WRTerrace Marshall38%14-39% 1-28-023420128%0.68.6
  • RB Ameer Abdullah took the lead over Alexander Mattison after a near-even split the week before. Abdullah played 62% of snaps and got 24 of the 40 RB opportunities, with Mattison at 31% snap share and 13 opportunities while running half as many routes.
    • RB Chris Collier's three carries all came late in the fourth quarter with Las Vegas up by 14 points.
    • Abdullah narrowly missed out on a huge fantasy game. He had a TD catch overruled and moved back to the 1-yard line on the opening drive, then was stuffed at the goal line on the next snap. Alexander Mattison came in for the following snap and got stuffed for a two-yard loss, with Vegas ultimately settling for a FG. There were no goal-line carries the rest of the day, so it's anyone's guess who takes those Week 18 if the situation arises.
  • Terrace Marshall was the No. 3 receiver for a second straight game. He's drawn just three targets on 33 routes the past two weeks but did have a nice 28-yard catch down the sideline Sunday afternoon.
  • TE Brock Bowers broke the rookie records for most receptions by any player and most receiving yards by a tight end, hitting both of his milestones before Week 18.
    • WR Jakobi Meyers, on the other hand, needs 96 receiving yards in the finale to reach 1,000 for the season. The Raiders may try to get him there for the first time, after three years in a row with 800-some yards.

     

Saints Personnel: 11 - 42% / 12 - 36%

53 Plays — 33 DBs — 8.6 aDOT — 20-of-36 for 218 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 4 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBSpencer Rattler100% 3-46-0   51 0%0.0 
RBClyde Edwards-Helaire47%16-40%5-20-02-10-04-3251925%0.6-0.8
RBJamaal Williams40%13-33%2-12-01-12-01211717%0.80.5
RBKendre Miller13%3-8%3-3-01-16-01-716819%0.80.1
FBAdam Prentice11%5-13% 0-0-01-21656%0.00.9
TEJuwan Johnson75%33-83% 6-66-01093382417%1.38.3
TEFoster Moreau70%24-60% 3-47-1556412016%1.610.6
WRMarquez Valdes-Scantling79%33-83% 0-0-0231392515%1.618.6
WRKevin Austin70%29-73% 1-23-0230392413%0.912.0
WRCedrick Wilson55%19-48% 3-17-0412241213%1.17.8
WRDante Pettis25%12-30% 3-27-0438171128%1.39.2
  • RB Kendre Miller made another start but was concussed in the second quarter and missed the rest of the game.
    • After Miller's departure, Jamaal Williams took 53% of snaps, two carries and one target for 24 yards, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire getting 45% snap share, two carries and four targets for 13 yards.
      • CEH and Williams figure to share the workload Week 18 if both Miller and Alvin Kamara (groin) are out. Jordan Mims could also have a role; he took a season-high 23 snaps Week 16 at Green Bay, mostly playing in passing situations, but was then a healthy scratch this past Sunday against Las Vegas.
    • Miller got 62% of snaps but only four of seven RB opportunities prior to his early exit.
  • WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling tied TE Juwan Johnson for a team-high 83% route share but was targeted on just two of 33 routes.
    • Coach Darren Rizzi said after the game that MVS aggravated his pre-existing back/chest injury at some point.
  • Johnson led the team in targets, catches and receiving yards, in addition to routes, although fellow tight end Foster Moreau scored the lone TD (from 30 yards out on a flea-flicker) and finished second on the team with five targets (70% snaps, 60% routes).
  • The Saints almost certainly will pick somewhere between 7th and 11th in April.
  • WR Chris Olave (concussion) wants to play Week 18 but will still need clearance from the team medical staff.
  • RB Alvin Kamara (groin) also wants to play, but he also said it'll be up to the team's medical staff to decide.
    • Kamara is 50 rushing yards away from his first ever 1,000-yard season. The Saints will try to get him there if he plays, without any doubt.

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB Ameer Abdullah  /   RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Stock ⬇️:   RB Kendre Miller

  Saints Injuries 🚑: RB Kendre Miller (head), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (back), DE Payton Turner (ankle)

         

Panthers (14) at Buccaneers (48) 

Panthers Personnel: 11 - 80% / 12 - 7%

46 Plays — 35 DBs — 13.9 aDOT — 15-of-28 for 203 yards — 2 TDs, 0 INT, 5 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBBryce Young100% 2-8-0   49    
RBRaheem Blackshear76%14-42%8-20-0   760%0.0 
RBMike Boone24%8-24%2-11-00-0-02-96417%0.0-4.5
RBVelus Jones7%2-6%1-0-0   3233%2.7-5.2
TEJa'Tavion Sanders54%17-52% 1-5-013322014%1.25.9
TETommy Tremble54%14-42%    422313%0.95.2
WRJalen Coker87%29-88% 2-35-0234352317%1.812.5
WRAdam Thielen85%29-88% 5-110-26116402723%2.311.3
WRXavier Legette70%24-73% 5-28-09136422521%1.212.5
WRDavid Moore30%9-27% 1-17-0117321819%1.211.4
WRDan Chisena7%3-9% 1-8-0183233%3.17.3
  • RB Raheem Blackshear drew the start and took 76% of snaps and eight of 13 RB opportunities. Mike Boone didn't steal much work from Blackshear, but the Panthers fell way behind and abandoned the run, and ultimately they ran just 46 plays.
  • WR Adam Thielen continued his late-year surge with a season-best 5-110-2 receiving line. It hasn't been all volume-based like his massive production early in 2023; this year he's at 10.2 YPT with a 77% catch rate, averaging 4.8 catches for 63.4 yards and 0.55 TDs per game.
  • WR Jalen Coker was targeted on just two of 29 routes, while fellow rookie got nine targets on 24 routes (but still finished with fewer yards).
    • Legette caught all five of his targets within 10 yards of the LOS but went 0-for-4 on the deeper chances, including three that were 20-plus yards downfield (one of which he dropped).
  • QB Bryce Young played reasonably well again, and he took shots downfield under pressure repeatedly. Results were mixed, and it didn't help that Legette went 0-for-3 on 50/50-type deep balls.
  • The Panthers are in a similar situation as the Jaguars pick-wise, only slightly behind, likely landing somewhere between 3rd and 9th.

     

Buccaneers Personnel: 11 - 65% / 12 - 16% / 21 - 11%

74 Plays — 35 DBs — 8.5 aDOT — 27-of-32 for 359 yards — 5 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBBaker Mayfield85% 1-2-0   63    
RBBucky Irving54%15-44%20-113-04-77-04-14281424%2.0-3.2
RBRachaad White36%13-38%6-30-01-4-014362222%1.5-2.3
RBSean Tucker20%2-6%8-39-01-5-0139435%3.20.6
TEPayne Durham77%20-59% 2-36-1343241011%0.98.9
TEKo Kieft27%2-6%    620%0.0 
TEDevin Culp26%11-32% 3-52-04486731%4.012.1
WRJalen McMillan69%27-79%1-9-05-51-2538452816%1.212.2
WRMike Evans62%29-85% 8-97-29102452727%2.612.1
WRRyan Miller54%21-62% 2-26-0440261416%1.09.8
WRRakim Jarrett32%4-12% 1-11-0110221111%1.311.1
WRTrey Palmer30%6-18%    201213%1.014.4
WRKameron Johnson9%2-6%1-11-0   1166%0.04.7
  • RB Bucky Irving had his most dominant workload shares yet until he was pulled early from the blowout (although probably not as early as he should've been removed).
    • Irving took 71% snap share and 18 of 22 RB opportunities in the first half. He then got 59% snap share and six of eight opportunities in the third quarter, before not playing at all in the fourth.
    • The only bad part of Irving's day was going 0-for-2 at the goal line. And he could've had more chances if the Bucs hadn't been so eager (and successful) throwing the ball from in close.
  • Sean Tucker got seven of his nine opportunities in the fourth quarter after Irving was done for the day.
    • Rachaad White played only 37% of snaps before the fourth quarter, and three three of his seven opportunities in the final frame.
  • WR Mike Evans needs 85 more receiving yards for his 11th straight 1,000-yard season. The Bucs can't afford to worry about milestones right now, but that might change if they take a big lead over the Saints. Which is good news for the Week 18 projections for both Evans and Baker Mayfield.
  • WR Jalen McMillan did it again, recording a fourth straight game with 4-5 catches, 5-7 targets, 51-75 receiving yards and 1-2 TDs.
    • He has six TDs over the past four games, averaging 4.8 catches for 60.5 yards on 6.3 targets.
  • TE Payne Durham put up 2-36-1, but he didn't have the same role as Week 16 in terms of snaps/routes, instead losing a bunch of work to rookie Devin Culp, who caught three of four targets for 52 yards on 11 routes (32%).
    • Culp is an undersized tight end (6-3, 231) who ran a 4.47 40 and may eventually threaten Cade Otton's playing time in clear passing situations (perhaps more so in 2025 than the next couple weeks). It's not clear if Otton will be back for Week 18 and/or the first round of the playoffs.
  • The Buccaneers can clinch their division Week 18 with a win (vs. NO) or a Falcons loss (vs. CAR). There's no scenario for either NFC South team to earn a wild card. The Bucs will either be seeded third or fourth if they win, moving up to No. 3 with a Rams loss (which then means hosting the Packers or Commanders rather than the fifth-seeded Lions/Vikings).

    

Stock ⬆️:   RB Bucky Irving, WR Jalen McMillan  /   QB Bryce Young, WR Adam Thielen

Stock ⬇️:   TE Cade Otton (knee), RB Rachaad White

  Buccaneers Injuries 🚑: CB Jamel Dean (knee)

         

Cowboys (7) at Eagles (41) 

Cowboys Personnel: 11 - 52% / 12 - 18% / 21 - 13%

60 Plays — 31 DBs — 8.8 aDOT — 16-of-29 for 148 yards — 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 sack, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBCooper Rush95% 1-2-0   45    
RBRico Dowdle67%12-40%23-104-01-4-01-7372019%1.0-0.2
RBHunter Luepke23%4-13% 1-1-010191211%0.82.2
RBEzekiel Elliott17%4-13%3-2-0   161013%0.6-2.5
TEJake Ferguson68%22-73% 3-18-0526422824%1.43.9
TELuke Schoonmaker33%5-17%    231322%1.45.8
WRBrandin Cooks67%22-73% 4-52-08129432917%0.913.3
WRJalen Tolbert67%20-67% 3-30-1421493214%1.012.2
WRKaVontae Turpin53%18-60%2-18-01-16-0414171126%2.18.0
WRJonathan Mingo48%16-53% 1-12-0350191017%0.610.2
WRJalen Brooks22%6-20% 1-12-0113261615%0.913.7
WRRyan Flournoy22%6-20% 1-3-02814914%1.07.9
  • RB Rico Dowdle took 67% of snaps and 24 of 28 RB opportunities. He didn't play the final drive but was still getting carries when the Cowboys trailed by 34 points midway through the fourth quarter.
    • One of Ezekiel Elliott's three carries came from the Eagles 5-yard line, and another came in garbage time, i.e., Zeke is still a threat to vulture TDs but not much else.
    • Dowdle has 1,007 rushing yards for the season, with the milestone perhaps explaining why he got so many carries late in the game. He didn't have a great day otherwise, losing a fumble (his third of the season, second lost) earlier in the contest).
  • WR Brandin Cooks put up 4-52-0 on eight targets, making him the only Cowboy with more than five targets or 30 receiving yards.
    • WR Jalen Tolbert made a great TD catch over Quinyon Mitchell in the end zone. Tolbert isn't good at getting open but excels at contested catches, even though he's just average in terms of size (6-1, 195).
    • Cooks played only 44% of snaps in the second half, after a team-high 84% in the first half (the Cowboys eased up on his workload once things started to get out of hand).
  • WR KaVontae Turpin had season highs for snap share (53%) and route share (60%) but didn't do much with the additional playing time, finishing with three touches for 34 yards (and four targets on 18 routes).
    • Turpin played 61% of snaps through three quarters, then just 31% in the fourth.
  • TE Jake Ferguson had a rough afternoon, with a lost fumble and just 18 yards while tying Cooks for team-high 73% route share.
    • Ferguson played 76% of snaps in the first half and 56% in the second half.
    • Ferguson is a strong rebound candidate for 2025. Not that he's one of the top guys at this position, but this year has been a real Murphy's Law season for him. FWIW, he has zero TDs on 57 catches, so the Cowboys might try to get him one Week 18. They might also try to get Dowdle one, as he only has one rushing TD all year (but three receiving).

     

Eagles Personnel: 11 - 59% / 12 - 25%

61 Plays — 19 DBs — 10.9 aDOT — 13-of-19 for 197 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 0 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBKenny Pickett66% 3-3-1   25 0%0.0 
QBTanner McKee34% 2--2-0   21    
RBSaquon Barkley74%11-58%31-167-02-2-021482016%1.02.1
RBKenneth Gainwell25%3-16%3-4-01-5-01-516821%1.3-0.5
RBTyrion Davis-Price8% 3-7-0   5    
TEGrant Calcaterra82%14-74% 1-34-0232451711%1.27.4
TEC.J. Uzomah34%2-11%    1840%0.0 
TEE.J. Jenkins18%2-11% 0-0-0166120%0.06.0
WRA.J. Brown90%19-100% 3-36-1568572530%3.312.0
WRDeVonta Smith79%18-95% 6-120-2793592725%2.49.6
WRJahan Dotson46%13-68%    37207%0.410.6
WRJohnny Wilson30%3-16%    1979%0.112.2
  • QB Kenny Pickett left the game with a rib injury in the third quarter. He reportedly cracked his ribs the week before but continued playing and then made the start Week 17 (but wasn't able to finish).
    • Tanner McKee played well late in the game and now has a shot at his first NFL start Week 18 against the Giants.
  • RB Saquon Barkley got off to a slow start but eventually reached 2,000 yards for the season, taking 18 carries for 127 yards in the second half.
  • WR DeVonta Smith dominated the receiving production, with A.J. Brown adding a fourth-quarter TD after two close calls earlier (one score wiped out by a penalty, then a one-handed catch on which he only got one foot in bounds).
  • Philadelphia is locked in as the No. 2 seed in the NFC and likely will rest key players Week 18 against the Giants. It's unclear if Barkley will get a chance to record the 101 rushing yards he needs to break Eric Dickerson's single-season record (asterisk).

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR Brandin Cooks

Stock ⬇️:   WRs Jalen Brooks, Jonathan Mingo

  Cowboys Injuries 🚑: S Donovan Wilson (knee)

  Eagles Injuries 🚑: QB Kenny Pickett (ribs), TE C.J. Uzomah (abdomen)

     

Jets (14) at Bills (40) 

Jets Personnel: 11 - 67% / 12 - 25%

57 Plays — 37 DBs — 5.1 aDOT — 23-of-32 for 195 yards — 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBAaron Rodgers63%     57    
RBBreece Hall47%16-44%10-45-01-8-01-5432821%1.40.2
RBBraelon Allen32%8-22%6-26-0   16920%1.2-0.8
RBIsaiah Davis23%8-22%3-35-01-8-01-5111024%1.51.8
TETyler Conklin86%29-81% 8-57-1814503316%1.05.0
TEJeremy Ruckert32%9-25%    221118%0.73.5
TEKenny Yeboah23%5-14% 0-0-02189427%1.24.6
WRAllen Lazard86%34-94% 1-9-0343513415%1.210.5
WRGarrett Wilson82%29-81% 7-66-1867573725%1.89.1
WRDavante Adams75%27-75% 5-47-0828523528%2.18.4
WRXavier Gipson14%6-17%    1188%0.310.9
  • RB Breece Hall took 77% of snaps and 10 of 14 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter. He then played just one snap in the fourth.
    • Isaiah Davis got all four of his opportunities in the fourth quarter, after playing just 10% of snaps through three quarters. He again looked better than Braelon Allen, who was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 early in the game and got just one touch between then and the final two drives.
  • QB Tyrod Taylor replaced Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter and led a pair of TD drives, repeatedly connecting with Garrett Wilson and then Tyler Conklin.
  • WR Davante Adams appeared to suffer an injury in the fourth quarter when the Jets were down 40-0, but he played a few more snaps after that, and he wasn't the only starter to miss the final drive (Garrett Wilson was also pulled).
    • Adams is 25 yards away from his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.
  • Conklin caught five passes for 37 yards on the final drive, after catching three for 20 yards (on three targets) up to that point).

     

Bills Personnel: 11 - 60% / 12 - 3% / 21 - 16% / 6OL - 16%

62 Plays — 29 DBs — 8.0 aDOT — 17-of-28 for 251 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 0 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBJosh Allen84% 5-17-1   57    
RBJames Cook47%11-39%15-53-1   301419%1.30.2
RBTy Johnson27%11-39%4-16-01-9-013171115%1.87.7
RBReggie Gilliam24%3-11%2-3-0   820%0.0 
RBRay Davis23%4-14%6-9-01-4-01-713521%2.41.2
TEDawson Knox47%11-39% 1-4-0320361813%1.29.7
TEDalton Kincaid44%17-61% 2-24-02-1342129%1.78.0
TEQuintin Morris23%4-14% 0-0-01221149%0.415.6
WRKeon Coleman92%27-96% 3-27-1777422317%1.914.5
WRKhalil Shakir58%18-64% 3-25-0623362429%2.45.4
WRMack Hollins53%15-54% 2-33-0225392214%1.013.6
WRAmari Cooper31%10-36% 3-56-1355281625%1.612.8
WRTyrell Shavers16%1-4% 1-69-11-31148%5.8-2.6
  • RB James Cook scored another TD, taking 53% snap share and 15 of 22 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter.
    • Ray Davis got five of his six carries in the fourth quarter. Prior to that, he had one carry and one target on 10% snap share, with Ty Johnson taking four carries and one target on 35% of snaps.
  • TE Dalton Kincaid's route share (61%) was larger than Dawson Knox's (39%) for the first time in three games since Kincaid returned from a knee injury, but Knox had a 3-2 target advantage as Kincaid disappointed for the third straight week.
    • Kincaid played 58% of snaps in the first half and just 22% in the second.
    • I wasn't much of a Kincaid fan pre-draft, thinking he should've been a second-round pick rather than a first-rounder, but I do have to say that he's been better than the numbers suggest this year, and the Bills usually give him a few schemed targets per game. The problem has been that he and Josh Allen have struggled to connect on the non-schemed targets, and in many cases it's been due to mistakes/misfires by Allen when Kincaid got open. My point, I guess, is that Kincaid still has a shot to break out, especially if the Bills move on from Knox this offseason.
  • WR Amari Cooper had a spectacular TD catch but was again just fourth among Buffalo's WRs in route share (36%). However, his snap share wasn't quite as bad as the final number looks; he took 42% before halftime and just 15% in the second half.
    • Cooper took a hard fall on the TD catch and didn't play thereafter. He'll be held out Week 18, presumably, with his role for the playoffs then uncertain (it's possible he takes more work away from Coleman/Hollins, but not guaranteed).
  • WR Keon Coleman led the team in snap share (92%), route share (96%) and targets (seven), handling a full-time role and then staying in to play with the backups.
    • In addition to the TD he actually scored, Coleman had another wiped out by a penalty early in the game.
  • The Bills are locked in as the AFC's No. 2 seed, giving them a chance to rest starters before hosting the Broncos (probably), Dolphins or Bengals on wild-card weekend).

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR Keon Coleman

Stock ⬇️:   QB Aaron Rodgers

  Jets Injuries 🚑: CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring)

         

Dolphins (20) at Browns (3) 

Dolphins Personnel: 11 - 30% / 12 - 19% / 21 - 35%

57 Plays — 35 DBs — 5.5 aDOT — 22-of-26 for 225 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks, 5 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBTyler Huntley100% 7-52-1   58    
RBDe'Von Achane53%16-53%10-25-02-13-02-4392325%1.7-0.8
RBRaheem Mostert37%8-27%6-3-02-16-022221318%1.20.3
RBJeff Wilson14%2-7%3-5-0   7511%0.7-0.4
RBJaylen Wright4%1-3%    1169%0.1-2.0
FBAlec Ingold39%6-20%    22811%0.82.1
TEJulian Hill63%9-30%    301214%0.86.1
TEJonnu Smith49%22-73% 3-26-145352725%2.14.7
TEDurham Smythe26%5-17%    21915%0.56.6
WRTyreek Hill88%28-93% 9-105-0985523124%1.911.5
WRMalik Washington88%24-80%1--11-04-41-0532271615%0.95.1
WRRiver Cracraft35%9-30% 1-16-01131389%0.58.3
  • QB Tyler Huntley played shockingly well, but Miami couldn't run the ball and had a ton of offensive penalties that set up long-down-and-distance situations. In order to make the playoffs, Miami needs a Week 18 win over the Jets + a Broncos loss to Kansas City (Denver opens as a 9.5-point favorite, with the Chiefs locked into the No. 1 seed and having a track record of resting starters in season finales without seeding implications).
    • The Chiefs might also not mind that losing keeps Cincinnati out of the playoffs, given Joe Burrow's strong track record against Steve Spagnuolo's defenses (although he wasn't great when they lost in Kansas City earlier this year).
  • RB De'Von Achane joins the long list of star fantasy players that left fantasy managers hanging in the most important moment. He had 5.1 PPR points within the first two drives of the game, but he did nothing the rest of the afternoon despite playing 53% of Miami's snaps, which was less than his usual 60-something percent.
    • After the first two drives, Achane had five carries for three yards and no targets, playing 41% of snaps while Raheem Mostert took 46% and got six carries and one target. Mostert also had no luck on the ground, gaining three yards on the six carries. Miami's run-blocking/scheming has been brutal all year, and Sunday was no exception.
    • Jeff Wilson's three carries all came in the fourth quarter.
    • Achane played 77% of snaps in the first half and 28% after halftime.
  • WR Tyreek Hill had a vintage performance, albeit without a TD, catching all nine targets for 105 yards on an afternoon when no other Dolphin got more than five targets.
    • Hill is 61 receiving yards away from his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.
  • WR Malik Washington topped 80% snap and route share for a second straight game, putting up 4-41-0 after 3-28-0 the week before. His production in Waddle's absence hasn't been much different from what Waddle did for most of the season.
  • TE Jonnu Smith scored another TD but can't earn any contract incentives this year because they're based on team performance and snaps played.
  • The Dolphins can earn the No. 7 seed with a Week 18 win (at NYJ) plus a Broncos loss (at KC). The problem for Miami, like for Cincinnati, is that the Chiefs likely will rest key players and/or remove them early.
  • Coach Mike McDaniel said Monday that he's optimistic about Jaylen Waddle (knee) returning for Week 18. McDaniel didn't sound as optimistic about QB Tua Tagovailoa (hip), FWIW.
    • McDaniel also said LT Terron Armstead (knee) a shot to play despite exiting early Week 17.

     

Browns Personnel: 11 - 71% / 12 - 9% / 6OL - 11%

76 Plays — 50 DBs — 4.7 aDOT — 24-of-47 for 170 yards — 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBDorian Thompson-Robinson100% 4-10-0   32    
RBD'Onta Foreman47%16-33%13-49-00-0-02-715815%1.0-0.7
RBPierre Strong37%17-35%5-33-03-15-058161218%0.80.1
RBJerome Ford17%6-13%6-22-0   362616%0.8-0.7
TEJordan Akins58%32-67% 6-49-0830251819%1.25.7
TEBlake Whiteheart41%10-21% 1-8-01318812%0.88.9
WRJerry Jeudy97%46-96% 12-94-018113604020%1.811.5
WRMichael Woods86%43-90% 1-3-031358389%0.310.2
WRElijah Moore64%30-63% 1-1-0537503318%1.09.1
WRJamari Thrash38%19-40% 0-0-0171389%0.34.0
  • RB Jerome Ford injured his ankle in the second quarter and played just one snap the rest of the game.
    • After the injury, RB D'Onta Foreman got 58% snap share, 10 carries and two targets (35 total yards), with Pierre Strong taking 44% snaps share, three carries and five targets (39 total yards).
  • WR Jerry Jeudy had career highs for targets (18) and catches (12), accounting for 42% of the Browns' targets and 55% of their receiving yards.
    • Jeudy caught four passes for 31 yards on the final drive. He's up to 84 catches, 1,166 yards and 132 targets for the season all career highs by far but with only four TDs.
  • TE Jordan Akins' eight targets were second most on the team, but his role in terms of snaps/routes was still slightly less than what David Njoku (knee) typically does when healthy.
  • Same deal for WR Michael Woods, who is getting a ton of playing time and routes but very few targets. He's been targeted on 9% of routes this year, including just three of 43 in Sunday's loss.

    

Stock ⬆️:   RBs Pierre Strong, D'Onta Foreman  /   QB Tyler Huntley, WR Tyreek Hill

Stock ⬇️:   QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson

  Dolphins Injuries 🚑: LT Terron Armstead (knee)

  Browns Injuries 🚑: RB Jerome Ford (ankle), LB Jordan Hicks (head), CB Denzel Ward (arm) 

         

Packers (25) at Vikings (27) 

Packers Personnel: 11 - 79% / 12 - 14%

57 Plays — 34 DBs — 10.0 aDOT — 19-of-30 for 185 yards — 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBJordan Love100% 1-6-0   57    
RBJosh Jacobs63%12-36%17-69-1   391819%1.5-1.3
RBEmanuel Wilson32%7-21%6-29-1   14715%0.6-4.5
RBChris Brooks12%2-6%    138   
TETucker Kraft84%27-82% 2-53-0327512617%1.85.2
TELuke Musgrave21%7-21% 1-4-011201017%0.55.2
WRRomeo Doubs84%29-88% 7-58-011101482621%1.812.5
WRDontayvion Wicks77%23-70% 4-43-0568321627%1.411.9
WRJayden Reed70%22-67% 1-6-0429382221%2.37.7
WRMalik Heath25%9-27% 1-3-11811517%0.96.1
WRBo Melton23%11-33% 3-18-045614624%1.317.1
  • RB Josh Jacobs took 79% snap share and 17 of 18 RB opportunities before the fourth quarter.
    • Emanuel Wilson then took 61% of snaps and all five opps. in the fourth quarter, including a short TD run.
  • WR Dontayvion Wicks got 77% snap share, 70% route share and five targets in the absence of Christian Watson, who was inactive with a knee injury.
    • Wicks avoided drops but didn't have a target rate, finishing at 4-43-0.
  • WR Romeo Doubs led the team in route share (88%) and drew 11 targets on an afternoon when no other Packer got more than five looks (Wicks).
  • The Packers should still want to go all out for a win Week 18 (vs. CHI), because a loss in combination with a Washington win (at DAL) would drop the Packers from the sixth seed to seventh and send them to Philadelphia (instead of LA/Tampa) in the first round.

     

Vikings Personnel: 11 - 54% / 12 - 31% / 21 - 13%

70 Plays — 44 DBs — 7.8 aDOT — 33-of-43 for 377 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 1 sack, 0 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBSam Darnold100% 3--3-0   62 0%0.0 
RBAaron Jones53%21-48%12-47-04-30-059392121%1.40.6
RBCam Akers30%11-25%6-18-02-15-13-9171015%0.6-1.3
RBTy Chandler10%1-2%5-7-0   13711%0.8-3.0
FBC.J. Ham20%5-11% 2-15-0221579%0.50.0
TET.J. Hockenson69%34-77% 5-68-0662392922%1.88.7
TEJosh Oliver54%10-23%    361416%1.57.8
TEJohnny Mundt11%2-5% 1-7-011251216%0.84.0
WRJustin Jefferson94%44-100% 8-92-01177583427%2.711.4
WRJordan Addison90%44-100% 6-69-18105513221%2.013.2
WRJalen Nailor53%28-64% 5-81-1574322211%1.012.2
  • RB Aaron Jones suffered a seemingly minor quad injury and missed the fourth quarter. He was still on the sideline and had his helmet, but Cam Akers closed out the game for Minnesota, including a difficult third-down catch at the very end that allowed the Vikings to kneel out the clock thereafter.
  • The Packers repeatedly challenged Jalen Nailor to beat them by shading coverage towards Minnesota's better receivers, and Nailor was fully up to the challenge with a 5-81-1 receiving line on five targets.
    • One of the best parts about Minnesota's offense is that all three WRs can win downfield. They aren't using a No. 3 guy who just catches out routes and slants. Nailor won't get consistent volume in this set up, but he's shown signs all season of being a quality real-life player.
  • The Vikings will be the No. 1 seed if they beat the Lions in Week 18. The loser of the game will be the No. 5 seed and face the Rams, Bucs or Falcons in Round 1.

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR Jalen Nailor

Stock ⬇️:   WR Jayden Reed

  Packers Injuries 🚑: DT Devonte Wyatt (concussion), S Zayne Anderson (concussion)

  Vikings Injuries 🚑: RB Aaron Jones (quad), LB Pat Jones (knee)

         

Falcons (24) at Commanders (30) - OT 

Falcons Personnel: 11 - 97% / 12 - 0%

60 Plays — 38 DBs — 12.6 aDOT — 19-of-35 for 223 yards — 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 1 scramble

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBMichael Penix100% 2-3-0   36    
RBBijan Robinson92%27-73%17-90-23-8-0525472820%1.3-0.8
RBTyler Allgeier12%1-3%3-19-0   16713%0.8-1.4
TECharlie Woerner55%8-22% 1-6-01427815%0.62.8
TEKyle Pitts45%24-65% 4-44-1552392717%1.48.7
WRDrake London97%36-97% 7-106-013175573228%2.210.4
WRDarnell Mooney97%35-95% 2-37-0583593321%1.912.7
WRRay-Ray McCloud63%25-68%1-14-01-13-013533216%1.36.1
WRKhaDarel Hodge38%12-32% 1-9-047911613%1.411.9
WRChris Blair2%1-3% 0-0-011713522%1.916.9
  • RB Bijan Robinson had another huge game and played a season-high 92% of the snaps.
    • RB Tyler Allgeier subbed in for three carries in the second quarter and gained 19 yards, but he wasn't noticeable for the rest of the game until a wildcat snap late in the fourth quarter (which sailed over Robinson's head for a huge loss but ultimately didn't stop Atlanta from scoring the tying TD).
    • Robinson got all four RB opportunities inside the 5-yard line Sunday night. He may still lose the occasional goal-line carry to Allgeier but has four TDs in his past two games and eight in his past seven.
  • WR Drake London got 13 targets on a night when no other Falcon had more than five (Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney each had exactly five).
    • London also went over 100 yards, with Pitts' 44 receiving yards being second most on the team.
    • Mooney is eight yards away from his second 1,000-yard season. London got there Sunday night.
  • Pitts had a game-tying TD catch and made a couple other nice plays, but he still lost a lot of playing time to Charlie Woerner, finishing with 45% snap share and 65% route share.
  • WR KhaDarel Hodge stole a bunch of snaps from No. 3 receiver Ray-Ray McCloud for the first time all year. Hodge is more of a threat downfield and less of a YAC guy, so it's possible the change was related to the switch from Kirk Cousins to Michael Penix (stronger arm).
    • Hodge got four targets and 79 air yards on 12 routes (32% share) but caught just one pass for nine yards. McCloud got just one target and one carry but gained 27 total yards.
  • The Falcons can only make the playoffs as the No. 4 seed, and it requires a Week 18 win (vs. CAR) in combination with a Buccaneers loss (vs. NO). Falcons fans will be rooting much harder than Saints fans for players like Derek Carr (hand), Alvin Kamara (groin) and Chris Olave (hamstring) to return for the season finale. I'd be surprised if more than one of the three plays, but the Saints haven't said anything yet about ruling them out.

     

Commanders Personnel: 11 - 64% / 12 - 23%

77 Plays — 50 DBs — 6.9 aDOT — 24-of-36 for 227 yards — 3 TDs, 1 INT, 5 sacks, 9 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAYSn/GRt/GTPRRYPRRaDOT
QBJayden Daniels100% 16-127-0   61    
RBBrian Robinson51%14-34%13-60-02-9-020351515%1.0-1.1
RBJeremy McNichols29%15-37%1-5-02-5-03-2161010%0.21.0
RBChris Rodriguez23%3-7%5-16-11-12-0111347%0.91.0
TEZach Ertz69%35-85% 6-72-2754422621%1.57.7
TEJohn Bates51%10-24% 1-14-015301011%0.82.4
TEBen Sinnott10%4-10%    1875%0.31.8
WRTerry McLaurin82%34-83% 1-5-0790522824%2.414.1
WROlamide Zaccheaus74%34-83%1-8-08-85-1955271524%1.95.0
WRJamison Crowder39%22-54% 3-25-0540181321%1.29.6
WRLuke McCaffrey29%8-20%    241312%0.86.9
WRK.J. Osborn23%4-10%    18415%0.56.5
WRBrycen Tremayne18%7-17%    10511%-0.2-3.4
  • RB Brian Robinson took 51% of snaps and 15 of 25 RB opportunities, with Chris Rodriguez getting a lot of the red-zone work and scoring a TD from inside the 5-yard line.
    • The Commanders might eventually figure out that Rodriguez is a better pure runner than Robinson. Or not, who knows? Either way, Jeremy McNichols also played a good bit Sunday evening, and Austin Ekeler may return from concussion protocol for Week 18 or the playoffs. Robinson's fantasy outlook isn't great for the end of this season or the start of next year.
  • WR Terry McLaurin caught just one of seven targets, struggling all night to get separation from Falcons CB AJ Terrell, who shadowed Washington's No. 1 receiver.
    • WR Olamide Zaccheaus took advantage, leading the team in targets and receiving yards while recording season highs for snap share (74%) and route share (83%). Dyami Brown's hamstring injury helped Zaccheaus get more playing time for a second straight week. 
  • TE Zach Ertz had his best game of the year, with his two TDs including a walk-off winner in OT. He also had a 37-yard gain on a scramble drill; his first play of more than 25 yards since Week 6 of 2022.
    • Ertz is up to 61-610-6 on the season, with five of those TDs coming in his past six appearances. It's been his best statistical season since at least 2021, and arguably since 2019 if you also factor in per-target efficiency.
    • Ertz earned $750k of incentives Sunday night. He'll get another $250k if he catches nine passes Week 18, and another $250k if he records 90 receiving yards. I don't think the Commanders will force the issue given how much is needed, but it's possible they feed him some easy targets late in the game if he's up around 67-68 catches and their game is well in hand (or the Packers are crushing the Bears).
  • RT Andre Wylie (groin) was inactive, and replacement Cornelius Lucas left with a groin injury. Starting center Tyler Biadasz (ankle) also exited early and didn't return, leaving the Commanders with their backup center and third-string RT.
  • The Commanders clinched a wild-card spot but still have something to play for Week 17. They currently have the No. 6 seed tiebreaker over Green Bay based on superior conference record, which means a Washington win (at DAL) or Green Bay loss (vs. CHI) in Week 18 makes the Commanders the No. 6 seed and matches them up with the Rams/Bucs while the Packers head to Philadelphia.
    • The Commanders will either be the sixth or seventh seed in the NFC. They can only move up to seventh if they beat the Cowboys while the Bears beat the Packers (in Green Bay). That means Washington could pull starters at some point Week 18 if the Packers destroy the Bears. Both games will be part of the 1 ET slate Sunday.

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR Olamide Zaccheaus

Stock ⬇️:   RB Brian Robinson

  Commanders Injuries 🚑: C Tyler Biadasz (ankle), OT Cornelius Lucas (groin)

         

Lions (40) at 49ers (34) 

Lions Personnel: 11 - 44% / 12 - 29% / 13 - 12% / 6OL - 15%

69 Plays — 36 DBs — 5.1 aDOT — 26-of-34 for 303 yards — 3 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks, 0 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAY
QBJared Goff100% 3--3-0   
RBJahmyr Gibbs52%15-42%18-117-14-46-044
RBCraig Reynolds35%9-25%7-31-02-35-022
RBJermar Jefferson10%2-6%3-9-0   
RBSione Vaki1%1-3%    
TESam LaPorta93%31-86% 6-64-1856
TEBrock Wright54%13-36%    
WRAmon-Ra St. Brown78%33-92% 8-60-11065
WRJameson Williams78%33-92%2--2-15-77-1824
WRTim Patrick55%21-58%    
WRAllen Robinson10%5-14% 1-21-0117
  • RB Jahmyr Gibbs got a bit less playing time compared to the previous week, taking 52% of snaps and 22 of 34 RB opportunities, although he still had massive production (163 total yards, TD) and nearly cost me a fantasy championship with his 30-yard TD run with three minutes remaining.
    • Gibbs figures to have larger workload shares Week 18 against Minnesota.
  • WR Jameson Williams curiously had just 24 air yards on eight targets, mostly seeing short passes and carries. He had a rushing TD on Detroit's opening drive, and then took a lateral for a 41-yard TD on the second series (his own receptions netted just 36 receiving yards on five catches).
    • The usage was surprising, but it's definitely not a bad thing. Williams will always be a great deep threat, and the addition of manufactured touches/targets close to the LOS could push him up to WR2 fantasy range next year. Of course, there's only one ball, and the Lions still figure to have ARSB, Gibbs, David Montgomery and Sam LaPorta, so someone is bound to have disappointing volume in 2025 (it was LaPorta for much of this year, but not in the second half of the season).
      • ARSB has 30 fewer targets than he got in the same number of games (134) last year. I think that's probably his new normal given Detroit's other weapons, i.e., getting about eight targets per game instead of 10, but with excellent efficiency. He's also 330 yards south of last year's total, but with only 10 fewer receptions (119-109) and two more TDs (10-12). For next year I'll probably have him as a late-R1 pick more so than the mid-R1 pick he was in 2024.
  • LaPorta is up to seven straight games with at least six targets, five in a row with double-digit PPR points and three in a row with at least 14.3 PPR points.
    • He's sitting at 53-663-7 on 76 targets, with 12.5 yards per catch (10.3 last year) and 8.7 yards per target (7.4 last year). He's definitely benefited the past few weeks from a more pass-oriented offense in the absence of David Montgomery, but there was also clear usage improvement before Monty's injury.

     

49ers Personnel: 11 - 53% / 12 - 13% / 21 - 28%

60 Plays — 44 DBs — 9.1 aDOT — 30-of-40 for 412 yards — 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 2 scrambles

  SNAPROUTESRushingReceivingTGTAY
QBBrock Purdy92% 3-12-1   
QBJoshua Dobbs8% 1-7-1   
RBIsaac Guerendo60%17-40%9-34-04-65-0425
RBKyle Juszczyk42%14-33% 1-9-127
RBPatrick Taylor22%7-17%    
TEGeorge Kittle93%29-69% 8-112-0858
TEEric Saubert20%5-12%    
WRJauan Jennings93%39-93% 7-67-010107
WRDeebo Samuel82%33-79%3-16-01-5-11-5
WRRicky Pearsall73%33-79%2-6-08-141-110131
WRChris Conley7%2-5% 1-13-016
  • QB Brock Purdy injured his surgically repaired elbow late in the fourth quarter and missed the end of the game, turning things over to Joshua Dobbs, who ran for a TD on San Francisco's final drive.
  • RB Isaac Guerendo took 60% of snaps and all 13 RB opportunities, gaining just 34 yards on the ground but 65 through the air.
    • Patrick Taylor played 22% of snaps without a touch, sharing pass-down snaps with Guerendo and FB Kyle Juszczyk (who was the lone back for a bunch of plays and caught a TD pass)
    • Guerendo didn't have much room to run, but I thought he looked the best he has all season, which could give the 49ers an interesting decision with Jordan Mason scheduled for restricted free agency this offseason.
  • WR Ricky Pearsall tied Jauan Jennings for the team target lead (10) and tied Deebo Samuel for the second most routes (79%). The rookie led San Francisco in receiving yards (141) and air yards (131), plus he took two carries for six yards.
    • Pearsall played 100% of snaps in 11 personnel and 32% of snaps in two-wide formations. The second number may not sound good, but it's better than his 10% mark over the previous three games, and Pearsall could take more snaps from Samuel in Week 18.
    • The 79% route share was Pearsall's second best of the season, behind only 81% in Week 7, although it wasn't much of a difference from the previous three weeks (68% route share).
  • Samuel's only target on 33 routes was a shovel/flip pass for a five-yard TD. He otherwise got three carries for 16 yards while Pearsall, Jennings and George Kittle dominated the passing game.
  • Jennings is 77 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season.
    • He's also 40 yards away from matching the yardage total (963) from his first three seasons combined.

    

Stock ⬆️:   WR Ricky Pearsall

Stock ⬇️:   WR Deebo Samuel

  Lions Injuries 🚑: RT Penei Sewell (thumb) 

  49ers Injuries 🚑: QB Brock Purdy (elbow) 

         

Vocab/Index

  • DBs = QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks + scrambles
  • AY = Air Yards  
  • Sn/G = Snaps per game
  • RT/G = Routes run per game
  • TPRR = Targets per Route Run (targets/routes)
  • YPRR = Yards per Route Run (yards/routes)
  • aDOT = Average Depth of Target

Personnel Groupings

  • 11 = 1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR
  • 12 = 1 RB / 2 TE / 2 WR
  • 21 = 2 RB / 1 TE / 2 WR
  • 22 = 2 RB / 2 TE / 1 WR
  • 13 = 1 RB / 3 TE / 1 WR

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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