Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Night Football, Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Night Football, Week 16

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday Night Football, Week 16

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Week 16 brings an AFC matchup between the Buffalo Bills (8-6) and the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.

Bills vs. Chargers Betting Odds for Saturday Week 16 Saturday Night Football

Bills: Spread -12.5 (-108),  Moneyline -800; Projected Score 28.3 points
Chargers: Spread +12.5 (-112),  Moneyline +550; Projected Score 15.8 points

Game Total: 44.0 points 

This game has the biggest line move of the season with the Bills originally laying -1.0 points on the road against the Chargers. But all of the Chargers injuries, failures, and ultimately firing of their head coach has this now at Bills -12.5. The number actually peaked at -14.0, but was immediately bet down to -12, then -10.5 before we saw some buyback on Buffalo moving it back up to -11.5, -12.0 and -12.5.

The total opened at 40.5 and was bet up to 42.0 then moved to 44.0. This is all about the Bills money moving the total as the line has moved on them as well.

Totaling bets thus far, 77 percent of the money and 78 percent of the bets are on the Bills. There is 54 percent of the money on the Bills' moneyline, which is 92 percent of the bets. There is 85 percent of the money and 82 percent of the bets on the OVER.

Key injury situations to watch 

Bills: IR - Matt Milano, Jordan Phillips, Damien Harris, Tre'Davious White, DaQuan Jones, Kaiir Elam, Justin Shorter

OUT - Micah Hyde

Chargers: IR - Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Joey Bosa

OUT: Keenan Allen, Nick Williams

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Bills vs. Chargers Betting Picks This Week

Bills vs. Chargers Best Bet: Josh Allen ANYTIME TD (FanDuel +105) for 1 unit

Allen has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season and has scored in seven out of his last eight games. Now that he is back involved in the running game, the Bills have turned their season around and are threatening to make the playoffs after being dead and buried. 

The Chargers allow 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game and I have the Bills projected to score four touchdowns in this game with Allen getting one of them on the ground. 

Bills vs. Chargers Best Bet: Gerald Everett OVER 21.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -114) for 1 unit

Everett has been a model of consistency over his last four games with receiving totals of 43, 44, 39 and 41 along with 4.5 receptions per game. The injuries to the wide receiving corps has made Everett a viable option and target on offense and the total is just half of what his averages have been. 

Bills vs. Chargers Best Bet: Bills OVER 14.5 points 1H (DraftKings +105) for 1 unit 

I am expecting the Bills to pick up where they left off last week with the running game and look to grind this game out against a depleted Chargers defense. There is no reason for the Bills to get fancy in this game and even if they come out flat, the running game should be enough to earn a victory. While I do like this game to be Bills 33, Chargers 16, Bills should be in the 17-20 point total in the first half. 

Bills vs. Chargers Prediction

Bills - #3 overall DVOA, #2 DVOA offense, #10 DVOA defense

Chargers - #20 overall DVOA, #17 DVOA offense, #28 DVOA defense 

The Bills are fighting for their playoff lives and the move to fire Ken Dorsey looks to be the correct one. After suffering several key injuries on defense, they have been able to make adjustments to rebound into the AFC playoff picture. 

The Chargers meanwhile have nothing left to play for with their head coach fired and three key offensive players injured or out for the season. This is a very difficult game to handicap because the Bills on paper should run through the Chargers, but they could also be due for a big letdown spot as huge road favorites. The public is heavy on the Bills which is also a red flag.  I am sticking with props on the game with a first half under on the Chargers.

Bills 33, Chargers 16

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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