This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks for Circa Survivor and Circa Millions, Week 2
Last Sunday, I did what I said I would, and ate/drank like a complete slob. Just straight up in my element. Week 1 showed a lot of sloppy football all around. Not many games were that intriguing, but hopefully Week 2 has a way of changing that. There's several sexy matchups for us to take some action on. Let's get to it.
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LA Rams (-104) @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) | Total: 47.5
Johnny V rolling out a Rams game for the SECOND straight week?!? Your honor, NO OBJECTIONS! While we correctly predicted a Lions cover on SNF last week, it was more than sweaty. The Rams had a shot to put the dagger in Detroit but allowed them back in the game to ultimately win it in over time. For the second straight road game, LAR will go see their division rivals in Arizona.
13-2. That's what the Rams are against the Cardinals all-time in the Sean McVay era. If you've paid attention to some of these NFC West trends since Kyle Shanahan and McVay took over, you're probably banking in some nice fazools. Think of the 9ers, Rams, and Cards as three brothers. SF is the oldest and beats up on the middle brother, the Rams. And the Rams beat up on little brother, Arizona. It's a vicious cycle.
The success for the Rams in this spot all starts with the man under center, Big Daddy Stafford. In six total matchups against these birds (including playoffs) as a member of LAR, Stafford is 5-1 with a 12-2 TD to INT ratio. In three of the matchups, the Rams scored 30 points along with a 26 point effort. Without Puka Nacua, LAR's offense isn't as good, but they've been dismantling this team before he showed up. With Cooper Kupp back to operating as the unquestioned WR1, we're likely to see him draw shades of that 2021 season where he averaged over 11 targets per game. Coming off a hilarious 21-target effort (14 catches, 110 yards, and a score in Week 1), we could see something similar this week. Something to note, however, is Arizona has actually managed to keep Kupp in check since '21. They've only allowed him to record 100 yards twice (99 in another game),10 catches once, and two scores since Stafford took over as QB. In Kyren Williams two games against Zona last season, he notched 20/158/1 and 16/143. So, Williams seems poised for a big one.
With the Cardinals, the offense looked great in the first half at Buffalo last week, but fell off a cliff in the second half. We saw Kyler Murray get sacked four times in that game, so keeping him upright will be a challenge against a Rams front seven that consistently got after Jared Goff last week. For the Cardinals to have a chance to win, they need to continue feeding James Connor and actually get Marvin Harrison Jr. involved in the game plan. Even though LAR's defense over performed last week, they may actually have found a way to compliment a strong offense for 2024.
It's a bit odd that Zona is favored here, a spot they don't usually find themselves in against the Rams. I think it's because the books believe with LA missing a couple key linemen and Puka that this matchup is a lot closer. That may be the case, but there seems to be a big advantage for LA in QB play. Give me the Rams to win outright
Pick: Rams ML -104
Last week wasn't my best in Circa Millions, only going 2-3. The Dolphins got hooked, and the Browns and Jets were virtual no shows. It's important for me to get back with a big week. Remember, the lines below are contest lines that lock in every Thursday afternoon, so any movement afterwards has no impact.
Circa Millions Entry Week 2
Pick 1: Rams +1
See Above.
Pick 2: Lions -7
I was having a tough time with this game for most of the week. As a matter of fact, I'm still on the fence. But getting 7 as opposed to the now 7.5, it provides the benefit of a huge key number. Tampa is a team that can score and make things interesting. We saw lose by eight last year in the Divisional Round, but the game was tight throughout. I'm expecting something similar, but I think the Lions pull away late like last week. The deciding factor for me was seeing how great Detroit is at home, especially ATS. In the Dan Campbell era, the Lions are cashing in the 70% territory ATS in their own building.
Pick 3: Bengals +5.5
The ROYAL MINT. You won't find anybody else in the industry talking about a royal mint spot, or a road dog closing at exactly five or 5.5 points. It's nearly an automatic bet for me every time I see this number. In terms of the matchup, Cincy should be coming out firing after a horrific Week 1 loss at home to the Pats. They're the one team to consistently play KC tough. And in a game that could ultimately decide the #1 seed in the AFC, this is too many points. I have this finishing as a field goal game like the last four matchups between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes.
Pick 4: Texans -6.5
The big number is a bit of a turnoff, but the truth is it may not be big enough. The Bears have a lot of talent on both sides of the rock, but with a real chance that Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze miss this game, it makes my decision a bit easier. Caleb Williams was dreadful in Week 1 along with the entire Bears offense. Until I see Caleb play better, I can't get in bed with Chicago. The other side of the coin is Houston's offense could find success even against a tough defense. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations this year, I view this as the Texans coming out part at home on Sunday Night Football.
Pick 5: Eagles -6.5
For anybody that saw Atlanta flounder at home against the Steelers, I told you not write them in as the easy NFC South winner. Despite a roster with some real talent, the team as a whole as some real weaknesses. The biggest one being Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cugine didn't look comfortable at all last week in his first game back from that Achilles injury. He wasn't pushing off his plant leg, and didn't make a lot of decisive throws. The Falcons defense isn't good enough to keep this Philly offense down. The one bugaboo for Philly is the late injury add to AJ Brown and his hammy. However, even if Brown is limited or doesn't play in this one, I still expect the Eagles to vaporize Atlanta off a lot of extra rest.
Circa Survivor Week 2 Picks
Luckily, both of my survivor picks in the Lions and Seahawks came home in Week 1. I'm not going to lie. I was pacing back and fourth in my living room all day. Both games were way closer than I wanted them to be. But the name of the game is to survive and advance, so let's see if my two teams can do it again this week.
Circa Survivor Entry 1 , Week 2
Pick: 49ers
The loss of Christian McCaffrey isn't ideal. But we saw Jordan Mason look like a steam train on Monday Night as he ran through what's supposed to be the best defense in the NFL in the Jets. Otherwise, it seems like San Fran will have everybody available they had in Week 1. When SF traveled to Minnesota last year and lost, both were different teams than they are now. The 49ers can't mess around with this Vikings team, even a hindered one. The Vikes will be rolling with Sam Darnold at QB and Justin Jefferson at WR. Jordan Addison will be out for this contest luckily. Even on a short week, I expect the Niners to take care of business. Not necessarily a contrarian pick, but this may end up being on the lighter side of selections this week with a few other heavy favorites drawing a lot of interest.
Circa Survivor Entry 2 , Week 2
Pick: Ravens
I do hate being on what's expected to be the most public play of the week, but sometimes it happens that way. The Ravens lost again to KC last week. Coming off a heart breaking loss, I'm looking for them to come out blazing after extra rest against a Raiders team that lost at the Chargers. If you remember my preview of the AFC North, one of the main reasons I didn't like Baltimore was because how ridiculously hard their schedule is for the first five weeks. The only good matchup they had was this one right here. It's a team that desperately needs to win this game with Dallas, Buffalo, and Cincy on deck. This needs to be the Derrick Henry breakout game. Popular or not, I feel this is one of the strongest plays of Week 2.
Other Considerations:
I took a good look at the Chargers at Carolina, but for some reason that game scares me. LAC traveling to the east coast is a bit intimidating consider they're not that good of a team. Yes, Carolina is awful, but we thought the same thing about the Patriots for this season and look what happened in Week 1. Despite how bad the Panthers are, it's still unlikely they go 0-17. If they win one or two games, this could be one they surprise a lot of people and pull out. Other than the overseas Giants game in November, this game may be their best chance to win one in 2024.
I also thought about the Texans and Eagles, both of whom should win and cover this week. The holdup for me was there are better matchups I want to save them for later on if I can make it. I personally don't feel like I sacrificed and took a bad spot this week to save these two. It's just more about trying to time it out as best I can.
The Colts were the last team I gave a thought to with Malik Willis starting for Green Bay. I think Indy should win and cover, but they're a high variance team very capable of making a lot of mistakes. Green Bay is on extra rest and still has a good defense and running game to hide Willis. The Colts have a nice spot to try and get rid of them early so I can save better teams for later. However, this is still too much of a risk this early in the year. Traveling to Green Bay and winning ain't that easy.
For the rest of my action, make sure you check me out on Twitter and my discord. Best of luck this weekend.
