This week's Underdog Battle Royale main slate include all six of the Wild Card weekend games. There are multiple different slates to choose from in the Underdog lobby but this preview article will focus on the main slate. We have six games to choose from and this leads us to a normal 6-man draft lobby. Everything remains the same so let's taker a look at how the sims are viewing this slate.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 81.96% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 16.73% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1.31% |
Much like a normal main slate, we still overwhelmingly love the RB in Flex builds. Despite only six games, the RB options are fairly deep and offer more upside overall than the lower end WRs. However, this may hinge on a huge injury we will cover later on in this preview article.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some
This week's Underdog Battle Royale main slate include all six of the Wild Card weekend games. There are multiple different slates to choose from in the Underdog lobby but this preview article will focus on the main slate. We have six games to choose from and this leads us to a normal 6-man draft lobby. Everything remains the same so let's taker a look at how the sims are viewing this slate.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 81.96% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 16.73% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1.31% |
Much like a normal main slate, we still overwhelmingly love the RB in Flex builds. Despite only six games, the RB options are fairly deep and offer more upside overall than the lower end WRs. However, this may hinge on a huge injury we will cover later on in this preview article.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in Bucket Two, THREE players in Bucket Three, and FOUR Players in Bucket Four. Additionally you may only take TWO players across Bucket One and Two and THREE players total across Bucket Two and Three. Again, this is not perfect but it does the job for what we are trying to accomplish. Let's take a look at how the sim actually built teams.
Bucket One | Bucket Two | Bucket Three | Bucket Four | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30.35% |
1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 17.75% |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11.26% |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8.29% |
0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6.83% |
0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6.11% |
1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5.00% |
1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3.13% |
0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.85% |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.80% |
0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.05% |
0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1.68% |
0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1.28% |
0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.62% |
This is the first time where we have seen the overwhelming top structure be one that most closely follows ADP. This makes logical sense as fewer teams to choose from will make the scroll down plays thinner than the average week. This "follow ADP" structure still only wins 30 percent of the time so by no means should we be just taking the top plays via ADP every time.
QB Analysis
Five QBs have ADP's of 25 or better meaning that the majority of drafts see these five QBs go off the board. Josh Allen has an ADP of 4.6 but the sims do not love his chances of being optimal as his eight percent optimal rate is actually seventh among QBs. This does not mean we shouldn't be taking him at all, but he is not necessarily a smash like his ADP suggests.
The sims really love Justin Herbert this week, ranking him second among all QBs in optimal rate despite his 35.2 ADP. This is partially due to his projection (QB4 median projection) but also a function of the sims wanting to use their early picks on skill position guys as the times when those players separate, a late QB is the answer.
TE Analysis
The TE options in the playoffs are bit thin with George Kittle really standing out relative to the rest of the field. His 23 percent optimal rate is nearly double the next highest in Dallas Goedert at 13 percent. After those two, four other options come in around 9-12 percent optimal. If you do pass on Kittle, these other options are so close so in my opinion unless you are setting up a stack, I will not be reaching to grab my TE. Let these guys fall beyond their ADPs and take whatever option is still there among your favorites.
RB Analysis
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 47.15% |
TWO | 1 | 38.45% |
TWO | 2 | 1.48% |
THREE | 1 | 33.33% |
THREE | 2 | 1.90% |
FOUR | 1 | 47.05% |
FOUR | 2 | 4.11% |
The RB distributions are actually relatively flat compared to most weeks with there being solid options at all ADPs throughout the draft. Christian McCaffrey, James Cook and Saquon Barkley all go in Bucket One and are strong plays with optimal rates at 10 percent or above. Bucket Two has two players above 18 percent in Josh Jacobs and Travis Etienne and those two are two of the sims' favorite plays in general. The big question of the slate is will Omarion Hampton play? At time of writing we do not have the Friday practice report, but if he does play the sims see him as optimal 14 percent of the time at his ADP. He is essentially free in these drafts and with the Steelers playing Monday, you have two other swap options beyond Kimani Vidal if he does get ruled out. I think Hampton is a fantastic Q-tag option to be taking a chance on at that ADP. He could be the slate defining play if he is ruled in.
WR Analysis
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 20.65% |
TWO | 1 | 30.74% |
TWO | 2 | 0.75% |
THREE | 1 | 51.85% |
THREE | 2 | 8.89% |
THREE | 3 | 0.13% |
FOUR | 1 | 58.49% |
FOUR | 2 | 17.37% |
FOUR | 3 | 0.21% |
Unsurprisingly, with the overall strength of RB especially early, the majority of teams get their WRs in Buckets Three and Four. Even though Bucket One WR appears low, Puka Nacua does sim as the best WR play on the slate. Beyond that, we follow ADP decently well. Nico Collins and Davante Adams both appear in over 15 percent of optimal lineups. After those top three, nine additional WRs appear in more than eight percent of optimal lineups. Aligning with the love for Herbert, you can pair him with any of his WRs in Bucket Four, and the sims like Ladd McConkey the most despite all of his struggles lately.
Overall, I think I am going to have a soft fade on Josh Allen in the first and try to load up on the early RBs when possible before backfilling the WR slot. We have seen this play out often this year on slates where the RBs have the ability to carry 15ish point WRs to the top of boards. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the last few slates of the NFL season.
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