This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 1 Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns; Odds, Picks, and Predictions
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The NFL has teed up a marquee matchup for Tom Brady's debut as a color commentator, with last season's most prolific offense going against a team that often erased the opposition at home on defense in 2023.
The Cowboys and Browns both enter the 2024 campaign wielding lofty postseason aspirations. The two head coaches start the season on the hot seat to varying degrees, and covet a fast start in thie inter conference battle.
Without further ado, let's examine top bets and a game prediction for Sunday's Cowboys-Browns showdown.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns Betting Odds for Week 1
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Cowboys +123 (BetRivers)/ Browns -130 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Cowboys +2.5 (DraftKings)/ Browns -2.5 (FanDuel)
Totals: Over 40.5 points (FanDuel)/ Under 41 points (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has steadied for multiple weeks, with neither team suffering any major injuries during camp and preseason and therefore coming into this game at full strength. Naturally, had CeeDee Lamb remained in his holdout, this number would have grown in line with Cleveland's projected advantage.
The total has seen more volatility, having sat at 43 points a bit over a week ago but then tumbling to 40.5 on a couple of occasions earlier this week before bumping up slightly to 41 points at some sportsbooks as of Friday afternoon. The downward movement has come even with Lamb's signing, as oddsmakers seem to have plenty of faith in the Browns' stalwart defense despite the tough opponent.
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Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns Opponent Betting Picks This Week
The Cowboys have once again made plenty of news this offseason and summer, but not necessarily for ideal reasons. The contract status of their two offensive megastars, have lurked in the spotlight, although one of those issues resolved recently with the signing of Lamb. Yet, the player arguably once again most pivotal to any success Dallas may experience this year, Dak Prescott, is about to start what could be his final campaign in Big D.
Prescott has consistently vowed to just focus on football but will still have his agents discuss an extension beyond Sunday's season opener. It has to be at least a minor distraction as he heads into an unenviable matchup against a Browns defense that held opponents to a league-low 13.9 points and 215.9 total yards per home game last season. What's more, the most critical piece of his top-heavy air attack, Lamb, heads into a similar scenario after having sat out all of camp and preseason in pursuit of the deal he eventually snagged.
There's also the tangential effect of Lamb's lucrative contract and one Prescott may eventually receive as well – the team had precious little financial leeway during the offseason to address other areas. That much is reflected in what on paper looks like one of the least productive running games in the NFL in 2024. Ezekiel Elliott returns to the team he once starred for this offseason, but he comes back as an increasingly worn-down 29-year old with 2,065 career regular-season carries on his tires. Backup Rico Dowdle has certainly shown flashes in the past, and Dalvin Cook enters the picture as an ostensibly fresher, more explosive version of Zeke who also seeks to reclaim past glory.
Regardless of each of those big-name players' current physical/mental state, the picture just is not very pretty in a difficult road environment. Prescott will rely on a potentially limited Lamb, who will operate on just two weeks' worth of total practice time in terms of on-field preparation for the season. If the Elliott-Dowdle-Cook collective run into brick walls against a Cleveland defense that limited opponents to 89.6 rushing yards at 3.9 yards per carry at home last season, there will be heck to pay for Prescott and his air attack.
Naturally, Deshaun Watson has plenty of question marks attached to him on the other side after a forgettable, injury-riddled first two seasons in Cleveland. However, he has arguably has a deeper pass-catching corps thanks to offseason addition Jerry Jeudy, speedy third receiver Elijah Moore, star tight end David Njoku and versatile Jerome Ford, who fills in for the injured Nick Chubb. All that is in addition to No. 1 target Amari Cooper, who could have some extra incentive against one of his old clubs.
Dallas frequently had trouble stopping the run on the road a year ago – the Cowboys allowed 131.0 rushing yards per away game, compared to 97.1 per home contest. Cleveland should therefore have a good chance of operating a balanced attack. Therefore, I do see a Browns victory in this spot (see below), and pairing it with a lowish passing yardage total for Prescott gets us a great price.
Cowboys @ Browns Best Bet: Same-Game Parlay: Browns moneyline and Dak Prescott Under 249.5 passing yards (+183 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Cowboys @ Browns Opponent Prediction
Browns 23, Cowboys 20
As noted previously, the Browns' defensive suffocation of teams on their home field last season was borderline historic in some metrics, and there is plenty of continuity on that side of the ball. The Cowboys have proven a different offensive team away from the AT & T Stadium, and I see Cleveland grinding things out when it has the ball with a starting-caliber backup in Ford and short-to-medium passing by Watson to his versatile weaponry. As such, a narrow hard-fought victory is in the cards for Cleveland.
