This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
The Games
| Over/Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5 | Chicago Bears | 19.25 | Detroit Lions | 29.25 |
| 37 | New York Giants | 16.75 | Dallas Cowboys | 20.25 |
| 47 | Miami Dolphins | 21.75 | Green Bay Packers | 25.25 |
Quarterback
- Caleb Williams
at DET ($5,300)
Quarterback is rather weak given that two of the six are Cooper Rush ($4,800) and Tommy DeVito ($4,500). The Giants-Cowboys game has a paltry 37-point total and is clearly the least appealing of the three. If I were to take a chance on either in GPPs, it'd be Rush. He's looked OK in back-to-back starts, averaging 19 fantasy points and the salary relief he offers makes it easy to afford Lamb.
Caleb Williams ($5,300) projects as the best point-per-dollar value, and I expect him to be the most popular as result. From a pure football perspective, he's coming off his best two games of the season as the Bears were unlucky not to beat the Packers and Vikings. From a DFS perspective, he put up 30 points last time out after throwing for 340 yards and two TDs. He's also ran for at least 33 yards in five of the last seven. All that said, the matchup is not great. Detroit just held the Colts without a touchdown and its defense allows a league-low 72.7 QB rating.
- Jordan Love
vs. MIA ($6,300)
It's almost by default that I'm highlighting Jordan Love ($6,300) as none of the other QBs look particularly appealing. Jared Goff ($6,500) has a tough matchup against a Bears defense yielding the league's fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs. They also shut down No. 1 WRs with star CB Jaylon Johnson. Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000) likely will be the least popular of this group, which makes him intriguing for GPPs from a leverage standpoint. He's coming off his best two performances of the season and the Packers look set to be without top CB Jaire Alexander. You can make case for any of them because of the lack of opportunity cost. I chose Love because I'm a Packers fan and I expect him to handle a cold night at Lambeau better.
Running Back
- Rico Dowdle
vs. NYG ($5,500)
Dowdle projects far and away as the top point-per-dollar value at the position, making him all but a lock for cash games and a great tournament option too. Part of the reason is that he's still underpriced in his role as feature back. The other part is that Tommy DeVito is on the other side of this matchup. Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker scored TDs for the Bucs against the Giants last week. It should be a great script for Dowdle. Tyrone Tracy ($5,800) is the leverage option for GPPs. Losing a fumble in back-to-back games in concerning but he's shown elite ability and the Cowboys' defense has porous at times.
- Jahmyr Gibbs
vs. CHI ($7,500)
The Lions continue to dominate teams on the ground with their two-headed monster of Gibbs and David Montgomery ($6,500). The Bears defense is very good against the pass, but it's been cooked on the ground, allowing five yards per carry to RBs. Gibbs, because he's $200 cheaper and has a better matchup, projects slightly better than De'Von Achane ($7,700). They'll be similar in popularity and it's possible to fit both if you want given the value at WR and TE. Montgomery, who left last week's game with a shoulder, would offer leverage in tournaments. Apparently he was healthy enough to keep playing had they needed him though. He's averaging a touchdown per game and it's a revenge spot against his former team. I'm in. I expect Josh Jacobs ($7,000) to come in about as popular as Gibbs and Achane. Jacobs broke the slate last week with 106 yards and three scores against the 49ers but doesn't jump off the page against a Dolphins defense that's held teams to less than 95 total rushing yards in five straight. I still might prefer him to Achane given the $700 salary difference and the fact that Jacobs projects for more touches.
Wide Receiver
- Keenan Allen at DET ($5,100)
Allen will be the chalky value option at WR after he caught nine of 15 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown last week. He's averaging 10 targets per game over his last four and that makes him a strong option for cash games. Rome Odunze ($5,000) and DJ Moore ($5,600) would offer leverage in GPPs, with Odunze likely to be the least popular.
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,200) will also be a relatively popular source of value with Romeo Doubs (concussion) out. Jayden Reed ($5,700) and Christian Watson ($4,900) also look like good options for tournaments with Doubs sidelined. Watson dropped a sure touchdown last week but he led the team in snaps and routes run.
- CeeDee Lamb vs. NYG ($7,300)
Lamb will be the most popular of the expensive WRs and I think that's warranted based on the last two games with Rush under center. Lamb caught 10 of 12 targets last week and 8 of 12 the week before. He's a little too cheap if he sees that type of volume against a bad team. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) has a tougher matchup but is always viable regardless. Tyreek Hill ($6,900) missed Tuesday's practice due to a personal matter and is still managing a wrist injury. He's averaging just six targets per game over his last four and all that means he won't be very popular Thursday. Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) will be even less popular and he's coming off by far his best game of the year after eight catches for 144 yards and a score last week. He or Hill would offer nice leverage in GPPs.
Tight End
- Jonnu Smith
at GB ($4,300)
Coinciding with Tyreek Hill taking a back seat is the emergence of Smith, who caught nine of 11 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown last week. This after catching six of eight targets for 101 yards and two scores the week before, making him the No. 1 TE in fantasy since Week 7. Is that volume going to be sticky? I'm not sure, but I expect Smith to be the most popular TE and that makes him a good option for cash games.
- Sam LaPorta vs. CHI ($4,100)
LaPorta's salary has fallen to a season low. He's drawn six targets in three of his last four games and there should be some opportunities for him Thursday with Jaylon Johnson locking up the outside. Just last week Justin Jefferson was held in check by the Bears while T.J. Hockenson went off. Tucker Kraft ($3,700) and Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400) are viable options for GPPs, but I have more interest in Cole Kmet ($3,600), who'll be less popular than Kraft. Kmet caught seven of 10 targets for 64 yards last week and he's played 98 percent of snaps the last two weeks.
Defense/Special Teams
- Dallas Cowboys vs. NYG ($3,100)
Micah Parsons against Tommy DeVito is a no-brainer. The Cowboys will be by far the most popular defense, rightly so. They're a lock for cash games and good for GPPs too, but the Lions ($3,500) and Giants ($2,800) also have decent matchups if you're looking for leverage. I never mind targeting teams against Caleb Williams and Cooper Rush, but a spot against DeVito is hard to pass up.
