DraftKings NFL: Week 15 Breakdown

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

Sunday's Week 15 slate includes 10 games and six have a total less than 40 points. That narrows things quickly and makes the Cowboys-Bills and Commanders-Rams matchups stand out for potential game stacks. The red-hot 49ers should be in consideration as well given their 30-point total and prime matchup against the Cardinals. This article highlights some of the best value for cash games and a few of my favorite ideas for tournaments. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Ezekiel Elliott vs. KC ($5,800)

Elliott's value depends on the status of Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), who missed last game and has yet to practice this week. In Stevenson's absence against the Steelers, Elliott had 29 touches, which included seven catches for 72 yards. He'd be expected to see a similar workload at home against the Chiefs, who've given up big scores to RBs recently. If Stevenson is out again, Elliott will be one of the three most popular RBs on the slate. If Stevenson ends up playing, you can pretty much forget about Elliott. Kyren Williams ($7,500) projects as the best overall value regardless of position as the Rams have a prime home matchup against the Commanders. He'll be popular in cash games and tournaments. 

• WR Jayden Reed vs. TB ($4,900)

Reed is coming off a career high in catches and targets after he caught eight of 10 last week against the Giants. He finished with only 27 receiving yards but also had four carries for 38 yards and a score. It was his seventh TD of the season and he's now had multiple rushing attempts in three of the last four games. His bump in usage was partly the result of Christian Watson (hamstring) not playing. Watson hasn't practiced all week and assuming he sits out again, Reed would stand out as the top WR value less than $6K. If Watson ends up playing, Wan'Dale Robinson ($3,700) might be the safer option for cash games. He's coming off 115 scrimmage yards last week on six catches and two carries. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen vs. DAL ($8,200)

QB Sam Howell at LAR ($6,300)

QB Jordan Love vs. TB ($6,200)

QB Matthew Stafford vs. WAS ($6,000)

RB Christian McCaffrey at ARI ($9,300)

RB Kyren Williams vs. WAS ($7,500)

RB Rachaad White at GB ($7,000)

RB Ezekiel Elliott vs. KC ($5,800)

RB Antonio Gibson at LAR ($5,200)

WR CeeDee Lamb at BUF ($9,200)

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. HOU ($6,200)

WR Rashee Rice at NE ($6,100)

WR Garrett Wilson at MIA ($5,800)

WR Jayden Reed vs. TB ($4,900)

WR Demario Douglas vs. KC ($3,900)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at NO ($3,700)

TE Trey McBride vs. SF ($5,200)

TE Jake Ferguson at BUF ($4,800)

TE Tucker Kraft vs. TB ($3,000)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. HOU ($2,900)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. CHI ($3,500)

D/ST Los Angeles Rams vs. WAS ($3,100)

D/ST Buffalo Bills vs. DAL ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (24.25) at Buffalo Bills (26.25)

COWBOYS

The Dallas-Buffalo matchup features two of the top offenses in football in what's expected to be a fast-paced and competitive game. It has the highest total on the slate and is most likely to shoot out, making it appealing for game stacks. Since Week 6, no offense has scored more points than the Cowboys and no quarterback has more fantasy points than Dak Prescott ($8,000). He's thrown 22 touchdowns to just two interceptions in that span and has emerged as the MVP favorite after last week's convincing win over the Eagles. CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) has a touchdown in five consecutive and stands out as the top WR option on the board, considering Tyreek Hill is banged up and priced at a premium in a tough matchup. Lamb has looked unstoppable this season and has shown a consistent ceiling, scoring 32-plus fantasy points in four of his last seven games. Brandin Cooks ($5,200) and Jake Ferguson ($4,800) are good options for double stacks. Cooks has caught a touchdown in five of his last eight. Ferguson has drawn eight targets in consecutive games and topped 70 receiving yards in each. I prefer Ferguson because the TE position is weak while there are WRs priced above and below Cooks who have higher ceilings. 

BILLS

Bills games have averaged the league's most combined plays in the last month. They're playing faster and scoring more points since firing OC Ken Dorsey. Josh Allen ($8,200) has run more too and the Cowboys' defense allows the fifth-most quarterback rushing yards per game. He has seven rushing TDs in his last seven games and seems to run more often in tougher matchups. I'm highlighting the rushing upside because it's what gives him the highest ceiling at his position and makes him worth spending up for. The tough part is deciding who to pair him with. Stefon Diggs ($8,400) hasn't topped 100 receiving yards since Week 6 and has only three TDs in his last nine games. The fact that he won't be overly popular makes him a worthy leverage option, however. Gabe Davis ($5,500) is coming off yet another donut after failing to catch a pass or score a fantasy points for the third time in five games. This after catching six passes for 105 yards and a score against the Eagles on his way to 25-plus fantasy points. He's always been boom or bust and at low ownership becomes more viable. I worry about Dalton Kincaid's ($5,300) ceiling with Dawson Knox ($2,700) back in the fold. Knox caught three passes for 36 yards in his return from IR and would provide much needed salary relief as the elite players on both sides are expensive. James Cook ($6,300) is coming off five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown as he continues to be more involved in the passing game. Pairing him with either Allen or Prescott would be an easy way to get some leverage.

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + RB Cook + WR Lamb +/- TE Ferguson
• Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + WR Lamb + TE Knox +/- RB Cook

Washington Commanders (22) at Los Angeles Rams (28.5)

COMMANDERS

It's easy to understand why Commanders games have been fruitful for fantasy points this season. They pass at the highest situation-neutral rate (68 percent) in the league while no defense faces a higher opponent pass rate (63 percent). Despite the fact that Washington hasn't scored more than 20 points in a month, Sam Howell ($6,300) has scored at least 20 fantasy points in six consecutive games. Helped out by his legs, he's rushed for four TDs in his last three. Coming off a bye and playing in warmer weather, you'd figure the Commanders should be up for this one. With the news that Brian Robinson has been ruled out, Antonio Gibson ($5,200) looks like one of the top values on the slate given his receiving upside. It's nice because he makes sense is most game scripts and you can pair him with either QB. Terry McLaurin ($5,600) is coming off no catches on just three targets against the Dolphins two weeks ago. That and because he's had an underwhelming season, will keep his popularity in check. Jahan Dotson ($4,700) and Curtis Samuel ($4,600) will be even less popular. Dotson is the more likely of the two to catch a long touchdown but Samuel has drawn more targets recently and could get there on volume. Either is a viable option but I'd prefer finding the money for McLaurin. 

RAMS

A home matchup against Washington is arguably the most favorable matchup in the league. The Commanders have a bad defense and their secondary has been especially awful. It's no wonder that Matthew Stafford ($6,000) projects among the best value at QB. He'll be relatively popular, and rightly so, but that's nothing to worry about as quarterback ownership never gets out of hand and doesn't matter much anyway because leverage is more important at the other positions. Kyren Williams ($7,500) also has a top projection and is expected to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate. You could either pair him with Stafford or fade him in favor of Cooper Kupp ($7,800) or Puka Nacua ($7,300), both of whom will be significantly less popular. Kupp had been quiet since returning from a knee injury before a big game in Baltimore last week when he caught eight passes for 115 yards and a TD. Nacua had 105 yards and a TD the week before. Keep an eye on the status of Tutu Atwell (concussion) because Demarcus Robinson ($3,600) had 10 targets in his absence last week. Robinson has a touchdown in back-to-back games and could provide important salary relief if Atwell is out. 

• Favorite Commanders Stack: QB Howell + WR McLaurin + RB Williams and/or WR Kupp
• Favorite Rams Stack 1: QB Stafford +/- RB Williams + WR McLaurin + WR Kupp or WR Nacua
• Favorite Rams Stack 2: QB Stafford +/- RB Williams + RB Gibson + WR Kupp or WR Nacua

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Deebo Samuel or WR Brandon Aiyuk + TE Trey McBride

QB Brock Purdy + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Marquise Brown +/- TE George Kittle

QB Jordan Love + RB Rachaad White + WR Romeo Doubs or WR Jayden Reed +/- TE Tucker Kraft

QB Jordan Love + WR Mike Evans + WR Romeo Doubs or WR Jayden Reed +/- TE Tucker Kraft

QB Will Levis + WR DeAndre Hopkins + WR Robert Woods +/- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo

QB Will Levis + WR DeAndre Hopkins + TE Dalton Schultz 

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Christian McCaffrey at ARI ($9,300)

The 49ers' offense is flying and now it has the highest implied total on the slate for their matchup against a bad Cardinals defense. McCaffrey already has 17 touchdowns this season; four came in Week 4 against Arizona when he scored a whopping 52 fantasy points. He's pretty much a no-brainer for cash games and a great option for GPPs as well. 

• WR CeeDee Lamb at BUF ($9,200)

Since Week 6 when the Cowboys offense turned a corner, no WR has more fantasy points than Lamb. He's one of those rare players who's pretty much always open and Dak Prescott has made a point of getting him the ball. Lamb has five games with 11-plus catches and averaged 35 fantasy points in those games. That's the type of ceiling that can break a slate, and the Cowboys might need him to have a big game if they're going to beat the Bills. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Cooper Kupp ($7,800); RB Kyren Williams ($7,500)

Fading the Field

• WR Stefon Diggs vs. DAL ($8,400)

I thought it would be too easy to highlight Tyreek Hill ($9,900), who's dealing with an injury and priced at a premium in a tough spot that could also have bad weather. I'll fade Alvin Kamara ($8,600) too. He's just not getting enough usage to justify his season-high salary and Taysom Hill is expected back to steal some red-zone touches. Which brings me to Diggs, who I'm somewhat intrigued by considering his salary has fallen to its cheapest point since Week 6 and the Bills are playing in the highest-totaled game. But Week 6 is also the last time Diggs had a 100-yard game. Of course he could still hit a ceiling in a tough matchup, but that doesn't seem to be happening as often as it used to. I'm not sure how much I read into all that, but it's worth noting. The main reason I decided to fade him is because I have more interest in CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Kupp, who are priced directly above and below, respectively. There's also the fact that pairing Diggs with Josh Allen is expensive and doesn't leave much room for Christian McCaffrey or another top option. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. HOU ($6,200)

Hopkins is coming off seven catches for 124 yards and a touchdown in Monday night's upset of the Dolphins. It was the second straight game he drew 12 targets. Sunday's home matchup against Houston is quite favorable as the Texans defense is much better against the run than the pass. C.J. Stroud has also been ruled out, which should make things easier on the Titans and give a boost to Hopkins' touchdown equity. He's already caught six touchdowns since Will Levis took over Week 8 and this is a great spot for 100 yards and another one. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Romeo Doubs ($5,300); WR Rashid Shaheed ($4,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Will Levis vs. HOU ($5,400)

RB Antonio Gibson at LAR ($5,200)

WR Jayden Reed vs. TB ($4,900)

WR Jahan Dotson at LAR ($4,700)

WR Curtis Samuel at LAR ($4,600)

WR Rashid Shaheed vs. NYG ($4,300)

WR Dontayvion Wicks vs. TB ($4,000)

WR Demario Douglas vs. KC ($3,900)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at NO ($3,700)

WR Demarcus Robinson vs. WAS ($3,600)

TE Tucker Kraft vs. TB ($3,000)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. HOU ($2,900)

TE Dawson Knox vs. DAL ($2,700)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Tyreek Hill vs. NYJ 

Hill is listed as questionable but expects to play through an ankle injury. If he were to miss, I'd have some interest in Jaylen Waddle ($7,400), weather permitting, given his ceiling potential in the absence of Hill. 

• WR Chris Olave vs. NYG

Olave will be a game-time decision as he deals with an ankle injury. Should he miss, expect usage bumps for Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson. Shaheed specifically would be in a great spot.

• WR Chris Godwin at GB

Godwin is considered a game-time decision as he manages a knee injury. If he can't go, Trey Palmer ($3,100) would emerge as one of the better cheap values at WR. We could also see usage bumps for Mike Evans and Cade Otton. 

Weather

• It looks like it's going to be rainy and windy in Carolina and Miami. More rain in Carolina and more wind in Miami. For me it's another reason to fade Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. It might also be a reason to target the running games in those matchups.