DraftKings NFL: Week 16 Picks

The slate this week is a bit shorter than usual as there are only 12 games on Saturday (yes, don't forget, Saturday) since there are two standalone games Sunday on Christmas Day in addition to the usual Thursday and Monday night games. Even with the lesser number of games, we should have some fun on Saturday with three games (Atlanta at Carolina, Oakland at Indianapolis and New Orleans at Tampa Bay) with projected totals over 50 points. The Saints-Buccaneers matchup should be especially interesting as it had a high total when they played only two weeks ago, but the game ended up being ugly on offense and burned a lot of DFS players as it finished 16-11. As always this time of year, make sure to check the weather on Saturday morning to find out about any extreme scenarios to avoid. Most importantly, thanks for reading and happy holidays to everyone!

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN ($6,700) – I get that the Vikings defense gets a lot of respect, but I was stunned when I saw A-Rod priced as the eighth-highest quarterback this week. The Minnesota defense was extremely poor last week against the Colts, registered no sacks or turnovers while allowing 411 yards of offense and they are clearly a team heading in the wrong direction. Rodgers did struggle from a fantasy angle last week with 252 years and no scores, but anyone who watched the game saw Davante Adams drop two easy touchdown passes. Prior to last week's goose egg, Rodgers had thrown seven TDs in his last three games. Rodgers is nursing a calf strain, but with the Packers only a game behind the Lions in the standings, you can guarantee Rodgers is not missing any snaps. A home game in Green Bay in December is always a concern with weather, but as long as it looks decent on Saturday morning, I love rolling with Rodgers at the price.

Other strong options: Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ ($7,700); Drew Brees NO vs. TB ($7,400); Matt Ryan, ATL at CAR ($7,200); Russell Wilson, SEA vs. ARZ ($6,300).

Cheapie Stab:

Matt Barkley, CHI vs. WAS ($5,000) – Matt Barkley has been pretty darn good in his four starts and I am as surprised as anyone. In addition, hidden in his stats is a bunch of easy catches dropped by his receivers, particularly in the San Francisco and Tennessee games. He did throw three picks last week, but did so while throwing for 362 yards and two scores. He has his best receiver in Alshon Jeffery back too and faces a Redskins defense that has allowed over 300 yards passing in each of the last three weeks. Obviously, he isn't a safe play, but priced at merely $5,000, he's one I am willing to chance on a couple teams in order to get some high-salary players in my lineup.

Running Back

Ty Montgomery, GB vs. MIN ($5,900) – After a number of games where the Packers flirted with Montgomery as a running back, they unleashed him at that position in Week 15 with 16 carries. He exploded for 162 yards and two scores on those carries, firmly establishing himself as their go-to running back the rest of the way. He was especially elusive on Sunday; according to Pro Football Focus, Montgomery gained an incredible 156 of his 162 yards after contact. Montgomery will see a majority of the carries and with his receiving skills, is always likely to add two or three catches to his stat line each week. Montgomery has been moved to running back on DraftKings and while his price has increased, he is still very playable at $5,900. As mentioned regarding Rodgers, the Minnesota defense is not what it was earlier in the year and just last week allowed over 100 yards to Frank Gore. After not allowing any running back to rush for over 60 yards in the first six weeks of the season, the Vikings' run D has now allowed over 70 yards to a back in six of the last eight games. Montgomery should see nice volume this weekend in a strong offense, a very nice formula at only $5,900. He makes a nice pairing with one of the expensive running backs this week.

Jordan Howard, CHI vs. WAS ($6,300) – Howard has been very productive recently with at least 77 yards rushing in each of his last seven games while maintaining a nice five yards per carry average. The Redskins' run defense has been exposed as of late, including allowing 132 yards to Jonathan Stewart last week. Howard has also been active in the pass game with an average of over five targets per game over the past five weeks. Howard is still available at a decent $6,300 price tag and should return nice value on that price while also bringing the potential for a big performance. If you want to go three running backs this week in DraftKings, I like Howard and Montgomery along with your favorite high-priced guy.

One other thought:

Todd Gurley, LA vs. SF, ($6,500) – This is an especially tough one as Gurley has been terrible all year, but this week, he gets to experience the unadulterated joy of facing the 49ers defense. The salary makers at DraftKings obviously noticed the matchup as his price increased from $4,500 to $6,500 despite doing absolutely nothing yet again in Week 15. If Gurley is ever going to get healthy, this is the week and a lot of people will probably be on him for the matchup, but with his awful season with zero 100 yards games, I think he will only be a GPP stab for me at the price.

Other strong options: David Johnson, ARZ at SEA ($9,200); LeSean McCoy, BUF vs. MIA ($9,000); Demarco Murray, TEN at JAX ($7,000); Carlos Hyde at LA ($5,800).

Cheapie Stab:

Thomas Rawls, SEA vs. ARZ ($5,100) – Rawls struggled last week against the Rams, running for a poor 34 yards on 21 carries. I don't love Rawls this week, but the price is really, really low and he should still see a lot of work. The popular cheapie at running back this week will likely be Kenneth Farrow since the Chargers are facing Cleveland, but I prefer Rawls at home if I have to pick a cheapie. I prefer the cheap options at receiver this week.

Wide Receiver

This is a fun week at wide receiver with a lot of interesting lower-priced guys. I decided to go bargain hunting at the position this week.

Davante Adams, GB vs. MIN ($5,400) – This price would be a lot higher if not for two super easy touchdowns that Adams dropped last week. Granted, drops have been an issue for Adams in the past, but one has to like him getting those opportunities in this offense. Adams has had consistent targets every week and has not seen less than six targets in any game in the last nine weeks. The Packers are always going to throw the ball and Rodgers was even quoted this week reaffirming his confidence in Adams. All that put together with his bargain price tag makes me love Adams this week.

Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. ARZ ($4,800) – Lockett was a popular draft target in the preseason, but was a disappointment as he has been quiet for most of the year. He has finally broken out in the past three weeks, seeing 20 targets and catching 16 balls while also mixing in a 75-yard touchdown run. The Cardinals had a world of trouble with a small, but very quick receiver last week in Brandin Cooks and Lockett could find similar success this week. Two weeks ago, the Cardinals defense allowed 97 yards to Kenny Still and 103 to Jarvis Landry as they continue to disappoint in 2016. Lockett is peaking at just the right time for the Seahawks and at only $4,800; he should be a great value this week.

Malcolm Mitchell, NE vs. NYJ ($5,200) – After a really solid run of games where Mitchell had four receiving touchdowns over four games (27 targets in that span), he was shut down last week by the Broncos secondary, seeing only one target. The Patriots' passing offense struggled as a whole last week like a lot of teams do when facing Denver, but will looked to get well in a perfect landing spot against the Jets. After the down game, Mitchell could go under the radar this week and be a low percentage value play at his $5,200 price tag. Mitchell found success against the Jets in their prior matchup in Week 12 with 42 yards and two touchdowns. I think he is underpriced this week.

Other strong options: Mike Evans, TB at NO ($8,500); Amari Cooper, OAK vs. IND ($6,500); Brandin Cooks, NO vs. TB ($6,800); Michael Crabtree, OAK vs. IND ($6,100); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. CIN ($5,200); Cam Meredith, CHI vs. WAS ($4,700); Pierre Garcon ($4,700); Kenny Britt, LA vs. SF ($5,700).

Cheapie stab:

John Brown, ARZ vs. SEA ($3,900) – After a total of seven targets over the prior four weeks, Brown was targeted six times last week by Carson Palmer, hauling in five of them for 81 yards and a score. Brown's snap count has dropped significantly as he deals with some leg pain due to a sickle cell trait, but with Michael Floyd out, the Cardinals turned back to him in a bigger role last week. Palmer will likely try and find him over the top a couple times against the Seahawks and the Cardinals could throw it a lot this weekend assuming they are trailing in Seattle. Brown's snap numbers give him a low floor, but he is talented and could provide fantastic value on his bargain basement price tag.

Tight End

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. ATL ($5,200) – After a four week stretch where Olsen did not top 45 yards, he has bounced back nicely the last two weeks with 10 catches for 172 yards. Olsen's priced has jumped up after the last two weeks, but at a price still well under $6,000, he still represents a nice value. In a game with a projected total of 52, the Panthers will likely have to throw the ball to keep up with the Falcons offense, presenting a nice spot for Olsen to see a lot of targets. Olsen already had success earlier this season against the Falcons with six catches for 76 yards and a score. With some of the usual big name players off the slate in primetime games coupled with a lot of bargains at WR, I think this is a nice week to pay up a bit at tight end. If you did want to save a few bucks off Olsen, I also really like Martellus Bennett this week at $4,100.

Other strong options: Delaine Walker, TEN at JAX ($4,300); Martellus Bennett, NE vs. NYJ ($4,100).

Cheapie stab:

Charles Clay, BUF v. MIA ($3,200) – Clay hauled in seven balls last week and has now scored in back to back weeks after not scoring all season. Clay has 13 targets the last two weeks and faces a Dolphins defense that has surrendered five scores in the last six weeks to tight ends. If you want to save cash at tight end this week, I like Clay as a guy who won't hurt you and may come up big.

Defense

New England, vs. NYJ ($3,600) – The Pats D stepped up last week in Denver, allowing only three points while putting up four sacks and forcing three turnovers. They now get a prime matchup at home against Bryce Petty and the Jets. The Jets have given up nine sacks over the last two weeks and Petty has also thrown four picks in that span. The Pats will likely be pretty popular, but I love the spot enough to join the masses on this one.

Other strong options: San Diego, at CLE ($3,400); Tennessee, at JAX ($3,400); Seattle vs. Zona ($3,700); Green Bay, vs. MIN ($3,300).

Cheapie stab:

No one jumps out this week below the Packers $3,300 price tag. If I had to try and save money this week, I would likely take a shot on the Dolphins at $3,000 who have been effectively getting after the QB with six sacks the last two weeks.