DraftKings NFL: Week 3 Value Plays

DraftKings NFL: Week 3 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

With Week 2 largely defined by injuries, there will be no shortage of cheap options on DraftKings in Week 3.

Of course, some of the injury situations remain unclear, so let's dig into those before getting to specific player recommendations…

Packers running back James Starks ($3000) is the player everyone will be watching, with Eddie Lacy (ankle) looking questionable to suit up against the Chiefs. Unfortunately, the Packers don't play until Monday night, and it appears Lacy is headed for a game-time decision. There aren't really any other viable sub-$4000 options in Monday's game, but Starks is still worth taking a chance on, as he offers enormous upside for the minimum price in the event of a Lacy absence. And even if Lacy plays, Starks could provide a decent return on his price tag, so it wouldn't necessarily be a complete bust.

With Marshawn Lynch (calf) questionable for a favorable home matchup against the Bears, undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls ($3000) and 34-year-old Fred Jackson ($3000) may have prominent roles. This is another tricky situation, as the Seahawks don't play until 4:25 PM ET, and the workload may be split. There is, however, plenty of upside to be had, with the Seahawks a heavy favorite against the Bears.

As if there weren't already enough minimum-priced options at running back, Bilal Powell ($3000) makes for an excellent play against the Eagles if Chris Ivory (knee) is unavailable. This one, fortunately, has a 1 PM ET start time, so Ivory's status should be known by 11:30. Powell isn't a talented runner, but he should get plenty of snaps and touches, including a bunch of receptions.

DeMarco Murray (hamstring) is questionable for a tough road matchup with the Jets, potentially leaving far more snaps for Darren Sproles ($3800) and Ryan Mathews ($3300). Sproles is the better option if Murray sits, as the stagnant Philadelphia running game probably isn't going to find its footing in this matchup. Unlike Mathews, Sproles has a decent ceiling even when Murray plays, particularly if the Eagles fall behind.

Dolphins running back Damien Williams ($3000) is worth a look in GPPs in the unlikely event Lamar Miller (ankle) doesn't play.

The same goes for Panthers rookie running back Cameron Artis-Payne ($3000), although Jonathan Stewart (knee) should be fine, despite being listed as questionable.

Brandon Marshall ($6200) should see plenty of targets no matter what happens, but he could really be in for a busy day against the shaky Philadelphia secondary if Eric Decker (knee) and/or Chris Ivory (quad) can't go. Just keep in mind that Marshall will likely rank among the leaders in tournament ownership percentage.

I'm already on record as being a fan of Stevie Johnson ($4300), who could see a few extra targets if TE Ladarius Green (concussion) doesn't play against the Vikings. Either way, I'll have Johnson in some lineups.

Last of all, I wouldn't normally worry about a player listed as probable, but DeAndre Hopkins (concussion) may still need to pass another test before he's cleared for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers. The Houston offense is terrible, but if Hopkins ultimately sits, both Cecil Shorts ($3500) and Nate Washington ($3600) would be reasonable candidates to hit double-digit targets against a shaky defense.

Now, let's get to the top plays for Week 3…

Quarterback

Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. SF), $6600 – Along with Tom Brady, Palmer will be one of the most highly-owned quarterbacks in Week 3, coming off performances of 28.68 and 22.2 DraftKings points to start the season. Palmer will probably fall back to the second or third tier of fantasy quarterbacks by the end of the year, but he should keep his excellent start going in Sunday's favorable home matchup with San Francisco. The 49ers still have a respectable front seven, but their slow-footed secondary will likely have a tough time against John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald, after Antonio Brown ate them alive last week.

Philip Rivers, SD (at MIN), $6400 – Yup, I'm recommending the same two quarterbacks I recommended last week, even though one of them (Rivers) is facing another tricky matchup on the road. It didn't work out for Rivers in Cincinnati last weekend, but the combination of talent, price and expected ownership rate makes him a perfect option for GPPs. If the Chargers end up passing 40+ times, a Rivers-Keenan Allen-Stevie Johnson stack could provide a massive return on just 35 percent of your budget. The trio combined for 79.72 DraftKings points in Week 1, even though Allen and Johnson had just one touchdown between them.

Other options:Aaron Rodgers, GB (vs. KC), $8000; Andrew Luck, IND (at TEN), $7900; Peyton Manning, DEN (at DET), $7400; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at STL), $7200; Matt Ryan, ATL (at DAL), $7100; Cam Newton, CAR (vs. NO), $6800; Tyrod Taylor, BUF (at MIA), $5800

Running Back

Carlos Hyde, SF (at ARI), $5400 – A massively popular option after his Week 1 breakout, Hyde managed just 10.1 DraftKings points while dealing with a leg contusion in a Week 2 blowout loss to the Steelers. His Week 3 matchup admittedly also has some blowout potential, but with Reggie Bush (knee) likely out again, Hyde might still salvage his day through the air. And, there's some chance Hyde will keep the game close by running all over the Cardinals' quietly-shaky front seven.

Devonta Freeman, ATL (at DAL), $4600 – With starter Tevin Coleman (ribs) out for at least one game, Freeman could dominate Atlanta's backfield snaps, as undrafted rookie Terron Ward will be the top backup. The Dallas defense has looked surprisingly good, and Freeman isn't a particularly talented runner, but the workload alone should make it hard for him to fall short of double-digit points. If you'd rather spend up at running back, I'm also a big fan of Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell this week.

Other options:Adrian Peterson, MIN (vs. SD), $7500; Le'Veon Bell, PIT (at STL), $7500; Jamaal Charles, KC (at GB), $7400; LeSean McCoy, BUF (at MIA), $6100; T.J. Yeldon, JAX (at NE), $4400; Chris Johnson, ARI (vs. SF), $4000

Wide Receiver

Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (at DET), $7600 – Hard as it may be to argue against the upside of Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and Julio Jones, it does seem that the consistently high ownership rates on the dominant trio has left many of the second and third-tier receivers underowned. The gap between the top guys and the other stars isn't quite as wide as the perception, and it's already reflected in the prices on DraftKings. Sanders may not be attached to the best version of Peyton Manning, but Denver's offense still seems perfectly competent in the short and intermediate passing games, which should play right into Sanders' hands this season. I'm also a fan of guys like Demaryius Thomas ($8000), DeAndre Hopkins ($7400) and A.J. Green ($7200) as high-priced alternatives to Brown and Jones.

Jarvis Landry, MIA (vs. BUF), $6400 – Already prone to abandon their running game, the Dolphins are a decent bet to lead the league in Week 3 pass attempts, with a banged-up Lamar Miller (ankle) facing the stout Buffalo front seven. Ryan Tannehill won't carve up the Bills the way Tom Brady did last week, but Landry could still turn in an Edelman-like performance. Despite all the offseason changes they made, the Dolphins still throw a ton of short passes to Landry.

John Brown, ARI (vs. SF), $5100 – It's not that I don't like Larry Fitzgerald at $5800, but rather that I prefer a much lesser-owned John Brown along with the extra $700, at least in GPPs. I still expect the two receivers to produce at a somewhat similar level this season, and there's no question the crowd will be all over Fitzgerald in the wake of last week's 8-118-3 performance. Brown's top-notch speed should be a nightmare for the slow 49ers secondary.

Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (at DAL), $9000; Antonio Brown, PIT (at STL), $8900; A.J. Green, CIN (at BAL), $7200; Keenan Allen, SD (at MIN), $6800; T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. TEN), $6700; Steve Smith, BAL (vs. CIN), $6300; Brandon Marshall, NYJ (at PHI), $6200; Michael Crabtree, OAK (at CLE), $4600; Stevie Johnson, SD (at MIN), $4300; Allen Hurns, JAX (at NE), $3700

Tight End

Coby Fleener, IND (at TEN), $3000 – Although I usually try to pick players who I hold in high regard, there are a bunch of cheap, appealing options at tight end for Week 3, as some questionable real-life players figure to see a bunch of targets. Fleener is chief among those, with fellow Colts tight end Dwayne Allen (ankle) ruled out for Sunday's favorable matchup in Tennessee. Fleener doesn't have the requisite toughness or hands to ever be a top player, but he is one of the league's most impressive athletes at his position, more than capable of ripping off big plays. Two of Fleener's three best DraftKings performances last season occurred during the three games Allen missed.

Other options:Greg Olsen, CAR (vs. NO), $4800; Tyler Eifert, CIN (at BAL), $4800; Eric Ebron, DET (vs. DEN), $3300; Vernon Davis, SF (at ARI), $3200; Jared Cook, STL (vs. PIT), $2800

Team Defense/Special Teams

Houston Texans (vs. TB), $3200 – While I can't argue against the Seahawks ($3400) facing the Jimmy Clausen-led Bears, there are some similarly attractive options that will likely have lower ownership rates (and price tags). The Texans may actually have the week's best matchup, with the Bucs sporting an incredibly young offense that features a rookie quarterback behind a very shaky offensive line. Don't be fooled by Tampa Bay's performance last week – the New Orleans defense is simply hideous.

Other options: Seattle Seahawks (vs. CHI), $3400; New England Patriots (vs. JAX), $3100; Denver Broncos (at DET), $3000; New York Jets (vs.. PHI), $3000; Cleveland Browns (vs. OAK), $2900; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at HOU), $2500

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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