DraftKings NFL: Week 6 Value Plays

DraftKings NFL: Week 6 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The Week 6 schedule must have been made with the enjoyment of fantasy players in mind, as all three primetime matchups – ATL-NO, NE-IND, NYG-PHI – pair high-profile teams in potential shootouts. All three games also have significant injury concerns, which is essentially the norm from here on out.

Before we get into specific player recommendations and discussion of the Thursday game, let's take a look at some of Week 6's more important unsettled injury situations:

Andrew Luck (shoulder) is the obvious one, with his Colts hosting the Patriots for a Sunday night shootout. His availability impacts players on both sides, as the Colts are more likely to lose in a blowout with Matt Hasselbeck under center. That concern isn't enough to steer me away from Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but I'll feel better about using the prolific duo if Luck is around to keep pace with them. A Luck-T.Y. Hilton-Gronkowski stack also looks mighty attractive, especially with Hilton's price down to $6,500. Let's hope Luck plays.

Despite his tough matchup against the Cincinnati defense, Buffalo's Karlos Williams (concussion) will be a decent option at $5,300, if he's able to play and LeSean McCoy (hamstring) isn't. Should both miss the game, Boobie Dixon and Daniel Herron still won't be worth considering.

Jacksonville's T.J. Yeldon (groin) gets to face a disappointing Houston defense and still carries a favorable price tag at just $4,800. However, his value is largely rooted in the expectation of big-time volume, so any limitations would make him a no-go. If he sits, I'll let someone else take a chance with Toby Gerhart or Denard Robinson (knee).

Following back-to-back 100-yard performances on the ground, Baltimore's Justin Forsett (ankle) appears questionable for Sunday's game in San Francisco. With Lorenzo Taliaferro (knee) recently placed on injured reserve, rookie Javorius Allen ($4,300) may be thrust into a three-down role in a favorable matchup. The Ravens have no shortage of flaws, but the offensive line is finally approaching the level it played at for all of last season.

The Ravens may also be without Steve Smith (back), who is unlikely to be near 100 percent, even if he's able to play through the pain. Kamar Aiken ($4,300) is a decent option against the dreadful 49ers secondary, and he should get overshadowed by some of the other similarly priced wide receivers.

With Odell Beckham (hamstring) and Rueben Randle (hamstring) both nicked up, Dwayne Harris ($3,100) may somehow be the Giants' No. 1 or 2 wideout in what should be a very fast-paced MNF game in Philadelphia. I don't like any of these guys as real-life players, but based on target expectations alone, it's worth giving a look to Harris, running back Shane Vereen ($4,200) and tight end Larry Donnell ($2,800). There's no doubt the Giants will have some excellent DFS options, but they don't play until Monday and the viable players span three positions and three salary ranges.

If Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) and Eddie Royal (ankle) both miss another game, Marquess Wilson ($4,000), Martellus Bennett ($4,800) and Matt Forte ($7,100) will hog the targets against a soft Detroit defense. Should he ever actually play, Jeffery's reduced price tag ($6,400) would be hard to ignore in GPPs.

Assuming Davante Adams (ankle) misses another game, Ty Montgomery ($3,500) provides an excellent way to get a piece of the Green Bay offense on the cheap. The rookie should see a lot of coverage from Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers, who has been surprisingly terrible through the first five weeks of the season.

Now, let's get to the top plays for Week 6:

Quarterback

Tom Brady, NE (at IND), $8,100 – The Patriots may have relied on their power rushing attack in recent meetings with Indianapolis, but there's little reason to think they'll take the same approach this time around unless they're nursing a multi-score lead late in the game. The New England offense has been unstoppable with Dion Lewis on the field, and the offensive line no longer has a significant advantage over Indy's defensive front. Even with the expectation of high ownership rates, Brady will be a strong tournament option any time the Patriots face an opponent that's decent enough to make a game of it. I might avoid him against the Denver defense, but that's about it.

Matthew Stafford, DET (vs. CHI), $5,300 – You'll obviously want to look elsewhere for cash games or 50/50s, but it's hard to ignore Stafford's upside relative to his price tag in big tournaments. Neither he nor the Detroit offensive line inspires any real faith, but the same can be said of Chicago's defense, and Stafford still has Calvin Johnson on his side. More than anything, this is about the expectation of big volume, as the Lions are completely unable to run the ball. I wouldn't want Stafford as my favorite team's quarterback, but I'll happily take a chance on him for one weekend on DraftKings.

Other options:Aaron Rodgers, GB (vs. SD), $7,700; Carson Palmer, ARI (at PIT), $6,600; Sam Bradford, PHI (vs. NYG), $6,000; Colin Kaepernick, SF (vs. BAL), $5,000

Running Back

Arian Foster, HOU (at JAX), $7,000 – Foster missed part of last week's game to be evaluated for a concussion, but he otherwise did his usual thing as a three-down workhorse for the Texans. His combination of floor and ceiling can only be matched by a few other running backs, namely Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman and Matt Forte. Foster should find plenty of room to run this week, facing a Jacksonville defense that was just shredded by Doug Martin.

Carlos Hyde, SF (vs. BAL), $4,600 – With Reggie Bush (calf) aggravating his injury and likely to miss another game, Hyde should take on a three-down role in Week 6, albeit against a Baltimore defense that primarily gives up fantasy points to wide receivers. It isn't a top matchup, but the 49ers should be able to score some points, and Hyde's combination of talent and expected snap count is unmatched among sub-$6,000 running backs.

Other options: Le'Veon Bell, PIT (vs. ARI), $8,500; Matt Forte, CHI (at DET), $7,100; Dion Lewis, NE (at IND), $5,800; Chris Ivory, NYJ (vs. WAS), $5,100; Lamar Miller, MIA (at TEN), $4,300

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson, DET (vs. CHI), $7,300 – Though not quite the beast he once was, Megatron is still one of the league's 10 or 15 best wide receivers, and he's a far better player than any of the Chicago cornerbacks. The production hasn't been there in a struggling Detroit offense, but with 54 targets through five games, Johnson is at least still getting high-end No. 1 wide receiver volume. This should be the week in which it translates to fantasy production, with the Lions home against the Bears.

Jordan Matthews, PHI (vs. NYG), $6,200 – Coming off three straight games with fewer than 11 DraftKings points, Matthews will likely carry a modest ownership rate this weekend, even with a reduced price in a juicy matchup. The Giants and Eagles both like to play at a fast pace, and Big Blue is much easier to beat through the air than on the ground. If Matthews can't take advantage of this matchup, it will officially be time to give up on him as a 2015 DFS option.

Anquan Boldin, SF (vs. BAL), $4,400 – I try to avoid players that just had a big game amidst an otherwise disappointing/mediocre season, as there's usually a one-week spike in ownership rate that's mostly unwarranted. In Boldin's case, I'm willing to accept the increased ownership thanks to his matchup against an injury-marred Baltimore secondary that wasn't particularly good to begin with. Somebody on the 49ers is going to have a huge day, and all of the key guys cost $5,000 or less. Boldin, the possession receiver, actually has a higher ceiling than Torrey Smith, the oft-disappearing deep threat, in PPR formats.

Other options:DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (at JAX), $7,700; Julian Edelman, IND (at IND), $7,600; Randal Cobb, GB (vs. SD), $7,300; Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (at PIT), $7,000; T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. NE), $6,500; Jeremy Maclin, KC (at MIN), $6,500; Marquess Wilson, CHI (at DET), $4,000; Ty Montgomery, GB (vs. SD), $3,500

Tight End

Travis Kelce, KC (at MIN), $5,000 – For those seeking an alternative to Rob Gronkowski, Baby Gronk should offer the perfect mix of upside and low ownership. The Minnesota defense isn't one that I'd normally target, but with Jamaal Charles (knee) out for the season, there are a ton of touches to be accounted for in the Kansas City offense. Many of those will go to Charles' replacements at running back, but Kelce and Jeremy Maclin should also benefit from extra attention. With the Chiefs an underdog and Charles absent, this is probably the first time I'll be able to roster Kelce without having significant concerns about his workload. Of course, Rob Gronkowski is still my favorite option this week – there just isn't any reason to discuss him anymore.

Other options:Rob Gronkowski, NE (at IND), $7,600; Greg Olsen, CAR (at SEA), $5,500; Tyler Eifert, CIN (at BUF), $4,900; Martellus Bennett, CHI (at DET), $4,800; Julius Thomas, JAC (vs. HOU), $4,000; Richard Rodgers, GB (vs. SD), $3,100; Jordan Cameron, MIA (at TEN), $3,000

Team Defense/Special Teams

Tennessee Titans (vs. MIA), $2,900 – Despite struggling against the run and allowing some big plays in the passing game, the Tennessee defense has quietly been pretty decent, thanks in large part to a surprisingly strong pass rush that's netted 13 sacks in four games. The sample size is still pretty small, but with Derrick Morgan, Brian Orakpo and especially Jurrell Casey all playing at a high level, the Titans should continue to put pressure on opposing passers. The matchup couldn't work out any better, as the Dolphins rarely connect on big pass plays and have a lousy offensive line. The Minnesota defense is probably a safer option at the same price, but the Titans offer a nice combination of upside and expected low ownership.

Other options: New York Jets (vs. WAS), $3,100; Cincinnati Bengals (at BUF), $3,000; Minnesota Vikings (vs. KC), $2,900; Detroit Lions (vs. CHI), $2,500

Thursday Night Game

Willie Snead ($3,300) should be in every lineup in every kind of contest, ownership percentage be damned. His price is way, way too low and the Saints probably won't have Marques Colston (shoulder).

I also like Drew Brees ($7,000) at his current price tag, just not quite enough to compensate for the typical Thursday ownership spike. With so many strong quarterback options available Sunday and Monday, there's no need to use Brees or Matt Ryan.

A nicked-up Julio Jones (hamstring) isn't worth $9,200, but even with the expectation of high ownership, the red-hot Devonta Freeman ($7,000) remains a strong option. We're going to see a lot of lineups with both Freeman and Snead, and while I'd usually find a reason to stray from the crowd, I really can't come up with anything here.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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