DraftKings NFL: Week 8 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 8 slate includes 13 games and somehow none have a total higher than 47 points. With lower totals across the board, game stacks become less appealing. That said, the Brown and Colts just combined for 77 points last week, proving that anything is possible in the NFL. I'm most likely to stick to skinny stacks in my GPP lineups, meaning the QB paired with one of his pass-catchers and one player from the opposing team. 

On the other hand, I imagine that's what most will do, which makes double stacks appealing for their leverage possibilities. If you have a strong feeling that one of these games is going to shoot out, don't be afraid to stack it with four or five players. Week in and week out we see those who are willing to take the biggest risks reap the biggest rewards. Large-field GPPs are most often won by finding unique ways to differentiate from the pack. Try to embrace the variance and good luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games 

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Breece Hall at NYG ($5,900)

Hall is the top projected RB in terms of value, and it's easy to see why. He's an elite player with a plus matchup against the lowly Giants and he's cheap. There really isn't much else to say other than as of Friday morning, he's the first RB in my cash-game lineup. I plan on pairing him with either Tony Pollard ($7,500) or Alvin Kamara ($7,300), but unfortunately it isn't clear which is the better option. You might also have a tough time deciding between Isiah Pacheco ($6,100) and Bijan Robinson ($6,000). In that case I prefer Pacheco because he has more touchdown equity. 

• WR Adam Thielen vs. HOU ($6,600)

Thielen has arguably been the story of the fantasy season. Written off as old and washed up, he's had 11 reception in three of his last four games and he's put up 30-plus fantasy points in each. The Panthers are coming off a bye and have a nice matchup at home against the Texans. If you're looking for cheaper value at the position, consider Zay Flowers ($5,600), who gets a prime matchup against the Cardinals.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts at WAS ($8,200)

QB Dak Prescott vs. LAR ($6,100)

QB Joe Burrow at SF ($6,000)

QB Brock Purdy vs. CIN ($5,600)

QB Russell Wilson vs. KC ($5,300)

QB Sam Darnold vs. CIN ($4,300), if Purdy is out

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. CIN ($9,200)

RB Tony Pollard vs. LAR ($7,500)

RB Alvin Kamara at IND ($7,300)

RB Jonathan Taylor vs. NO ($6,200)

RB Isiah Pacheco at DEN ($6,100)

RB Bijan Robinson at TEN ($6,000)

RB Breece Hall at NYG ($5,900)

WR Tyreek Hill vs. NE ($9,500)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at SF ($8,100)

WR Adam Thielen vs. HOU ($6,600)

WR Christian Kirk at PIT ($5,900)

WR Zay Flowers at ARI ($5,600)

WR Diontae Johnson vs. JAX ($5,000)

WR Tank Dell at CAR ($4,900)

WR Kendrick Bourne at MIA ($4,700)

TE Evan Engram [LOGO[ at PIT ($4,500)

TE Jake Ferguson vs. LAR ($3,600)

TE Trey McBride vs. BAL ($2,800)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons at TEN ($2,900)

D/ST Jacksonville at PIT ($2,800)

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals at SF ($2,200)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Houston Texans (23.25) at Carolina Panthers (20.25)

TEXANS

There are a few reasons to like Houston in this spot. The Texans rank third in situation-neutral pace over the last month and their games average the third-most combined snaps this season. They also have a matchup against a Carolina defense that allows the league's highest explosive play rate. C.J. Stroud ($6,300) will be out to prove that the Panthers made a mistake when they passed on him in the draft. You could argue that he's already proved it based on his impressive start, but that might be harsh on Bryce Young. We've seen Stroud reach 25 fantasy points a couple  times already and he has pass-catchers who are cheap, which makes the stack appealing. Nico Collins ($5,500) has shown a massive ceiling, topping 30 fantasy points twice in six games. Tank Dell ($4,900) is back after sitting out a week in concussion protocol. We saw him put up back-to-back 20-plus fantasy point games before the injury. Dalton Schultz ($3,900) has caught 11 of 17 targets his last two games and has a TD in three straight. All three come with some extra appeal as they aren't likely to be popular. 

PANTHERS

There's some added intrigue in this matchup as it features the league's first two draft picks facing off for the first time. I wasn't planning to highlight it but somehow none of the 13 matchups stand out as great targets. When that's the case, it becomes more advantageous to look for spots that won't be as popular because there isn't as much opportunity cost in the way of becoming optimal. I should also mention that both of these teams are coming off byes, which can only be helpful considering they have rookie QBs at the helm. Bryce Young ($5,100) continues to improve, tossing three TDs two weeks ago against the Lions. He's also priced cheaper than he has been all season. If people are happy to take a chance on Sam Darnold ($4,300) this week then surely Young must be viable. Adam Thielen ($6,600) has set the fantasy world on fire through six games. Incredibly, he has 11 catches in three of his last four and he's topped 30 fantasy points in all. His salary continues to creep up, which will keep his popularity in check. DJ Chark ($3,800) and Jonathan Mingo ($3,400) are cheap enough to be considered in double stacks. Both have big-play ability and each has drawn at least six targets in three of the last four games. 

• Favorite Texans Stack: QB Stroud + WR Collins or WR Dell + WR Thielen +/- TE Schultz
• Favorite Panthers Stack: QB Young + WR Thielen + WR Collins or WR Dell

Cincinnati Bengals (19.5) at San Francisco 49ers (24)

BENGALS

We just saw Kirk Cousins tear up this 49ers' defense for 378 yards Monday night. I don't anticipate Joe Mixon having much success on the ground, which means it will be on Joe Burrow ($6,000) and the passing game to move the ball and put up points. The Bengals are coming off a bye and all of their key players are underpriced. Burrow's salary has fallen to its cheapest point in two years despite the fact that he's shaken off the calf injury and returned to form. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100) is the only one who will be relatively popular. I highlighted him in the "High-Priced Heroes" section because he deserves to be priced closer to Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp. Tee Higgins ($5,900) stands out as one of the better leverage options on the slate. There are WRs priced above and below who will be popular while Higgins goes overlooked. He's no longer carrying a rib injury and you'd figure it's only a matter of time before we see a ceiling game. 

49ERS

I'm writing this Thursday night without much clarity on the QB situation. Brock Purdy ($5,600) is in concussion protocol after developing symptoms on flight home after Monday's game in Minnesota. Sam Darnold ($4,300) is preparing to start in Purdy's absence and we're going to assume that's the case. I'm not going to try to sell anyone on Darnold, but he's never played on a team this good and certainly hasn't had the elite weapons on offense that the 49ers do. He projects as the top value at QB because his salary is so low and he doesn't need to put up a massive score to pay it off. You're going to need to spend down somewhere if you plan on rostering Christian McCaffrey ($9,200). He's been nothing short of incredible this season and coming off two more TDs against the Vikings, taking his total to 11 through seven games. I expect the steep price tag to temper his popularity and add some leverage to his value. Deebo Samuel remains out, which means more opportunity for Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000) and George Kittle ($5,400). Aiyuk seems too expensive with Darnold under center but that means almost no one will roster him. I have more interest in Kittle, who's priced cheap enough relative to his ceiling.

• Favorite Bengals Stack 1: QB Burrow + WR Chase and/or WR Higgins + TE Kittle
• Favorite Bengals Stack 2: QB Burrow + RB McCaffrey + WR Higgins
• Favorite 49ers Stack: QB Darnold/Purdy +/- RB McCaffrey + WR Higgins/WR Chase + TE Kittle 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown/WR DeVonta Smith + WR Terry McLaurin +/- TE Dallas Goedert

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers + TE Trey McBride

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Marquise Brown + TE Mark Andrews

QB Tua Tagovailoa + WR Tyreek Hill or WR Jaylen Waddle + WR Kendrick Bourne

QB Dak Prescott + WR CeeDee Lamb + WR Cooper Kupp or WR Puka Nacua +/- TE Jake Ferguson

QB Gardner Minshew + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Michael Pittman or WR Josh Downs

QB Kenny Pickett + WR George Pickens/WR Diontae Johnson + WR Christian Kirk/WR Calvin Ridley

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase at SF ($8,100)

All of the Bengals are underpriced because on paper they have a tough matchup in San Francisco. However, we just saw Kirk Cousins torch that defense for 378 yards Monday night. Jordan Addison had a massive game in the process and I think we could see similar from Chase. I doubt Cincinnati will have much success on the ground so the onus will be on Joe Burrow and his WRs to put up yards and score points. Their chances of scoring may also be helped if the 49ers end up starting Sam Darnold, in which case it's hard to see their offense keeping the Bengals off the field. 

• WR A.J. Brown at WAS ($8,000)

You could argue that Brown has been the most impressive WR in the league this season. He's currently on a streak five consecutive games with 125-plus receiving yards. He destroyed this Washington defense in Week 4 with nine catches for 175 yards and two scores. Another big selling point is that he will be less popular than Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase, which makes him a strong leverage option. 

Honorable Mentions: TE Travis Kelce ($8,400); WR Tyreek Hill ($9,500)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. CIN ($9,200)

I'm assuming that Sam Darnold will start in place of Brock Purdy (concussion), which will lower McCaffrey's ceiling. Twenty fantasy points won't be good enough when the opportunity cost includes the likes of Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase and A.J. Brown. It also includes Tony Pollard and Alvin Kamara, who I'd consider at least similar options to McCaffrey and are significantly cheaper. That said, I'd still have some interest in McCaffrey if I were stacking that game. He makes sense paired with Darnold or on the opposite side of Joe Burrow stacks. 

***UPDATE***

With the news that Purdy is trending towards playing, I don't feel as comfortable recommending to fade McCaffrey. I still think it's fine based on price but his ceiling is definitely higher with Purdy under center. I wanted to add a couple of other candidates to fade. Tyreek Hill ($9,500) makes sense because he's the most expensive player on a slate that doesn't offer much for cheap value at RB and WR. Bijan Robinson ($6,000) would also make sense because he's going to be popular after seeing his salary slashed. We know the range of outcomes is wide for Robinson but the matchup against the Titans seems rather favorable with Tannehill ruled out. I haven't decided what I'm going to do yet but I wanted to add a couple of other ideas. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Zay Flowers at ARI ($5,700)

Here's a stat I like to target: Arizona's defense has given up the most yards in the league to WRs. Flowers has looked the part after being drafted in the first round, but he only has one touchdown through seven games. The Ravens offense is coming off its best game of the season and this is spot where Flowers could break a long TD while topping 100 yards for the first time in his young career. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Breece Hall ($5,900); TE Mark Andrews ($6,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Bryce Young vs. HOU ($5,100)

QB Kenny Pickett vs. JAX ($4,900)

QB Sam Darnold vs. CIN ($4,300)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson at MIA ($5,400)

RB Darrell Henderson at DAL ($4,800)

RB Emari Demercado vs. BAL ($4,800)

WR Diontae Johnson vs. JAX ($5,000)

WR Tank Dell at CAR ($4,900)

WR Josh Downs vs. NO ($4,800)

WR Kendrick Bourne at MIA ($4,700)

WR Brandin Cooks vs. LAR ($4,600)

WR Elijah Moore at SEA ($4,100)

WR Rashid Shaheed at IND ($3,900)

WR DJ Chark vs. HOU ($3,800)

WR Michael Gallup vs. LAR ($3,400)

TE Trey McBride vs. BAL ($2,800)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Brock Purdy vs. CIN

Purdy remains in concussion protocol after developing symptoms Monday night. It would seem that there isn't enough time for him to be cleared, but you never know in the NFL. Sam Darnold ($4,300) is preparing to start and would be a relatively popular option considering the cheap price and that the 49ers' offense under Kyle Shanahan is one of the smoothest that a backup could step into. 

• QB Ryan Tannehill vs. ATL

Tannehill has been ruled and coach Mike Vrabel has said that both Malik Willis and Will Levis will take snaps Sunday. Neither is any good at this point in their young careers and with the Titans expected to struggle on offense, that should boost the chances of Falcons players succeeding. 

Weather

• The windiest spot of the week is in Miami where there's expected to be sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts up to 2 5mph. Nothing crazy but if I were on that game, I'd check the forecast Sunday morning.