DraftKings NFL: Wild-Card Picks

Welcome to Wild Card Weekend! The matchups are not really ideal on paper for close or high-scoring games, but luckily with DFS, every game becomes interesting. The highest over/under on the slate is the Dolphins at Steelers at 46 and, on the low end, we have the Raiders at Texans at an extremely ugly 36.5 total. The big decision to make when setting up your squad this weekend is whether or not to play Le'Veon Bell at his very high price tag of $10,300. With only four games on the slate, there a lot of fewer, cheaper options to pick through so taking Bell or not determines how the rest of your team gets built. On such a short slate, there is very little room for error, but it can also be a lot of fun as you will likely have at least a little action in each of the four games.

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. MIA ($7,600) – Big Ben will probably be the highest percentage QB this weekend (maybe close with Aaron Rodgers). With only eight guys taking snaps this weekend (and one of them being Connor Cook!), it is imperative to hit on the right guy. He has an elite wide receiver in Antonio Brown and is also scheduled to get Ladarius Green back, which adds to his weapons. He has had an extreme home/road split this year with 20 TDs in six games at home against only nine TDs in eight games on the road. Ben and Rodgers are the two top-end guys this week and at these prices, I like Roethlisberger at home more than Rodgers (also at home) getting a tough Giants defense. The Dolphins pass defense has allowed three passing touchdowns in each of the last two weeks and if you throw out the Bryce Petty game (how can you not?), they have allowed an average of three passing TDs per game over the last six games. As long as the weather cooperates, I like Ben to go quite large this week.

Cheapie stab:

No one stands out to me here, but if you really wanted to save cap at this spot, I would probably hold my breath and play Matt Moore at $5,100 with the hope that they are trailing the Steelers and he has to chuck it the whole second half.

Running Back

This spot really comes down to whether or not you want to play Bell at $10,300. He is clearly fantastic and easily the best RB playing this weekend, but the price is steep. As a result, I looked for other guys to either pair with him or play instead of him.

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. OAK ($6,100) – After missing the final two games of the season with an ankle injury, Miller is scheduled to be ready to go for this week against the Raiders. Miller was highly drafted this year after moving to the Texans and while he has been a disappointment for the draft price, Miller still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards, catch 31 passes and score six times. In his matchup against the Raiders in Week 11, Miller had a really nice game, toting the rock 24 times for 103 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders allowed a combined 147 yards last week to Devontae Booker and Justin Forsett and the Texans should lean on Miller heavily this week in order to not put too much on Brock Osweiler.

Cheapie stab:

Zach Zenner, DET at SEA ($4,500) – If you are looking to save cash at running back, I think I lean to Zenner over the slightly higher priced Latavius Murray and the slightly lower priced Paul Perkins. Zenner has been effective over the last two weeks as the Lions' primary ball carrier, running for 136 yards and scoring three touchdowns while also catching six balls. Facing the Seahawks in Seattle in a playoff game is never going to be easy, and while he is not likely to run for a lot of yards, Seattle has allowed five rushing TDs in the last two weeks and Zenner has taken control of the Detroit running back volume yet is still very cheap

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG at GB ($9,100) – While the Giants defense is very good, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to score points at home which should lead to a very nice game flow opportunity for OBJ. The Packers secondary has been getting roasted over the past three weeks, including an insane 12-202-2 line from Adam Thielen in Week 16. Wide receivers have amassed seven TD catches over the last three weeks against the Packers and six different receivers have had games with over 75 yards in that stretch. Beckham only had five catches for 56 yards when the teams matched up in Week 5, but did see 12 targets and scored. He is high-priced and is tough to play if you use LeVeon Bell, but I love Beckham this week (obviously check the weather Sunday AM as it is scheduled to be really cold in Green Bay) and am willing to pay the tag to get what I think will be a very large game. It is very difficult to get both him and Antonio Brown in this week and since I have to pick, I'm taking Beckham.

Jarvis Landry, MIA at PIT ($5,100) – I like Landry this week because of his deflated price on a tough slate, plus what I think will be a nice game flow situation with the Dolphins trailing in the second half. Landry has been hot lately with at least 75 yards in three of his last four games with two touchdowns in that stretch. In his first matchup with the Steelers in Week 6, Landry had a nice game, catching seven balls for 91 yards. The Steelers have given up production to starting wide receivers in the past three weeks, allowing 94 yards to Terrelle Pryor, 79 yards (and a TD) to Steve Smith, and 91 yards to Brandon LaFell. I think Landry gets heavy volume in this game, especially in the second half, and at only $5,100 in a week where finding value is tough; that is a price I am not passing up.

Cheapie stab:

Eli Rogers, PIT vs. MIA ($4,000) – If you want a cheap piece of the Steelers' passing game, Rogers could be a nice way to get some production for very little money. Rogers has come on a bit as of late with 17 targets over the last three weeks of the season, although one of those was Week 17 when Antonio Brown did not play. However, in Week 15 and 16 combined with the starters playing, Rogers did catch nine balls for 159 yards and a touchdown. Rogers could be peaking in the offense at the right time with the price tag not reflecting it yet.

Tight End

C.J. Fiedorowicz, HOU vs. OAK ($4,200) – Jimmy Graham will be the top-rated tight end this week on every list you look at, but in a week where finding cap will be tough, I prefer to save the money and go with Fiedorowicz. He has quietly been a target monster over his last six games (he did miss Week 15) averaging 7.7 targets per game in that stretch. In Week 11 against these same Raiders, he had a really nice week with 82 yards on six receptions. For me, it comes down to C.J. or Ladarius Green this week, but at the price and with PPR scoring, I prefer the target floor that Fiedorowicz brings.

Cheapie stab:

Will Tye, NYG at GB ($2,800) - I think Fiedorowicz is cheap enough to not need a cheapie stab, but if you need to save even more cap at tight end, I would go with Tye. The Giants will likely have to throw the ball in Green Bay and Tye has 17 targets over the past three weeks. He may not have a lot of yards, but in PPR scoring, he should catch enough balls to provide value at his near-minimum price.

Defense

Oakland, at HOU ($3,000) – This is a tough week to find a defense I really want to play. Houston at home facing Connor Cook will likely be the most popular play, and they make sense, but they are also priced at $3,800 and I think the Raiders will run the ball a lot and try to be conservative to keep Cook out of bad situations. Seattle at home is always a solid play, but they are also priced at $3,700. I am going to drop down and save cap and take a stab with the Raiders against Brock Osweiler. The Texans have surrendered four sacks in each of the last two weeks and I think the Raiders get after Osweiler a little bit and force him into a couple of mistakes. The Raiders D knows they have to come up huge to have a chance to win this weekend and at a very low price, I am willing to bet they do.