This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Game Wagers
Bills +3.5, Packers -3.5
I like both the Bills and Packers this week to win and I think Green Bay covers the 3.5-point spread. Earlier this week the Bills were +2.5 points and I preferred taking the money line at that point at +118. However, the line as of Saturday morning moved to +3.5 and the money line was all the way up to +155. This is likely due to Patrick Mahomes being out of the concussion protocol days ahead of the game. The 3.5 points are something of a safety blanket for the Bills and I'd now favor taking that over the money line.
Packers -150 First Quarter
Tampa came out very slow last week and I think the combination of the weather and the Packers at home favors Green Bay. Taking this line eliminates any "tie" action so if it ends up being even after the first quarter but I expect Rodgers and the Packers to get off to a quick start.
Bills/Chiefs Over 54
I really thought this number would be more towards 60 and it wouldn't' surprise me if this ends up over 70 points. You can find the alternative line of over 66.5 at +400 which is worth sprinkling a little on. Weather isn't supposed to be an issue and there's an easy game flow to imagine with both teams marching up and down the field at will.
Player Props
Rob Gronkowski OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
This is the wager I like the best this week as Gronk had five targets last week but missed hitting this over. He's still Tom Brady's safety blanket and without Antonio Brown, Brady could lean on him a bit more in the red zone. Don't be surprised if this one is over by halftime.
Mike Evans Under 63.5 Receiving Yards
Evans isn't 100 percent since suffering a knee injury Week 17 and should be shadowed by Jaire Alexander. This is a great spot for Alexander to have a coming-out party as he's been one of the more underrated cornerbacks in the league. Oddly, Evans has three games this season with three receiving yards or less. In those three games combined, however, he has a 4-7-4 receiving line.
Cole Beasley Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
Beasley has been the forgotten man over the last few weeks with only 74 receiving yards in his last three games. He had a goose egg last week receiving only two targets and the law of averages suggests he'll be more active this week. He lost his injury designation this week and should find more room to operate this week against the Chiefs. I like his +275 anytime touchdown odds as well.
Josh Allen Over 305.5 Passing Yards
Again, I think this game will turn into a shootout and I think both quarterbacks easily go over 300 passing yards. Allen has all of his weapons healthy and has nine games this season hitting the over here. The Chiefs are ranked 25th in fantasy points against opposing quarterbacks.
Player Touchdowns
Robert Tonyan +150
Tonyan has turned into one of Aaron Rodgers favorite targets in the red zone and he's coming off a mediocre game albeit against the league's best defense. Before last week Tonyan had touchdowns in six of his previous seven games receiving five targets inside of the 10. Look for him to find the end zone against the Bucs this weekend.
Scotty Miller +400, Tyler Johnson +600
Bruce Arians was kind to use this week letting us know Friday that Antonio Brown is already ruled out this week. This means Miller and Johnson should see an uptick in usage occupying the third wide receiver spot. I like taking both here to hedge as it seems as if you only take one of them, the other will score. There's also the upside here that both of them score which would make for a nice payday.
Josh Allen +135
The Bills don't really have a goal line back and there's a good argument that Allen has had the role over the last two years. There's a good chance Brian Daboll dials up Allen's number if the Bills get the ball inside the five and Allen is capable of running it in from a distance as well.
Sammy Watkins +325
This may be a moot point as Watkins isn't guaranteed to suit up Sunday dealing with a calf injury. However, if he's out there, never underestimate the power of the revenge factor. Seriously though, Watkins will likely be an afterthought for the Bills defense with them being keyed in on stopping Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. This is the perfect spot to target the Chiefs second wide receiver provided he's on the field Sunday.
