This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.
I've written a few dynasty articles throughout July, mostly focusing on rebuilds. First, I walked through the process of blowing up a team and optimizing to tank, using one of my own squads as an example after I traded away Cooper Kupp, Austin Ekeler, Darren Waller and Tom Brady. After that, I looked at some veterans that fit well on rebuilding teams (e.g. Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf), and then named some others who belong on win-now squads (e.g. Brady, Allen Lazard).
This week we're going in another direction, focusing on potential trade targets for teams that are somewhere between all-in for 2022 and all-in for a rebuild. My personal preference is to bite the bullet and trade veterans for picks when I have a mid-table roster, but it's not a set rule by any means, and there's sometimes a good enough case to try making moves in the other direction.
What you won't ever find me doing is trading away first-round picks and talented rookies for older players when I feel stuck in the middle of a league. There are exceptions, to be fair, like when another owner offers a stupid trade that's a clear W for one side (us) and a clear L for them. Unfortunately, though, that's a rarity, and not something we can really count on unless it's a family league or something along those lines.
The better approach in this situation is to angle for a high-risk, high-reward roster, without trading away first-round picks or prime young talents like Chris Olave or DeVonta Smith. The idea is to increase our odds of making the playoffs, even if we simultaneously increase our odds of sliding from middle of the pack to the bottom.
One way to do this is by targeting potential breakout players, i.e. guys who aren't early round picks but have upside to produce that way if things break right. Another option is to find correlations, a.k.a. stacks, betting on a single offense to outperform expectations. We'll explore both routes below, focusing on players that can be acquired without dealing away a first-rounder.
Stacks/Correlations
QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Allen Lazard
Personally, I'm low on the Green Bay offense this year, relative to ADP/expectations. But I'm also prepared to be wrong when it comes to one of the five best QBs in football history, backed by a good coach and a good offensive line. The problem is a lack of receiving talent, and potential shift toward more run plays. But there's still room for Rodgers to have a big season, either due to incredible efficiency on an excellent team or unexpected volume on a disappointing squad. Any of these scenarios plays out better for the 38-year-old if Lazard takes advantage of his obvious breakout opportunity post-Davante Adams.
QB Daniel Jones + WR Kadarius Toney OR WR Kenny Golladay (SF/2QB)
I'm part of a twitter chat where someone recently mentioned trading a second-round pick for Jones. Which sounds gross, at first glance, but it's actually a pretty good move for his 14-team, superflex league. While he won't ever be a star, Jones might be a competent lower-range starter -- and one who adds rushing stats (26.3 ypg career) to compensate for inconsistent passing. He's seen the universe conspire against him year after year, between injuries, awful coaching and injuries to teammates.
Nobody wants Danny Dimes as their QB1, but he should be a functional QB2 if he can just stay healthy, and his range of outcomes also includes high-end QB2 territory in the event Brian Daboll and Co. prove themselves a sizable upgrade over the old, pitiful coaching staff. A step forward with Jones' passing could contribute to a Toney breakout or a Golladay bounceback. I especially like the Giants stack for anyone that's already relying on Saquon Barkley; his chances of a huge year are much better if the offense can improve from awful to mediocre.
QB Marcus Mariota + RB Cordarrelle Patterson (SF/2QB)
This one makes more sense if you already have Drake London and/or Kyle Pitts. While he'll never be better than average as a passer, Mariota runs enough to put up QB2-worthy points for as long as he keeps the starting job. The guys behind him are rookie third-round pick Desmond Ridder and 2021 UDFA Feleipe Franks.
Others to Consider
QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Christian Kirk
QB Derek Carr + WR Hunter Renfrow
QB Kirk Cousins + WR Adam Thielen
Individual Players
QB Kirk Cousins
Cousins was right on the QB1/2 borderline the past two seasons, and while he isn't quite good enough as a passer to reach Top 5 status without rushing stats, he could jump up a few spots if he gets more volume under new coach Kevin O'Connell. QB-needy teams counting on Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen or Irv Smith should consider trading for Cousins to double-up on the bet.
RB James Conner
Conner scored 18 TDs last season, highlighted by a five-week stretch with 572 total yards, 24 catches and eight TDs while Chase Edmonds dealt with an ankle injury. Edmonds is now gone to Miami, replaced by plodder Darrel Williams and sixth-round rookie Keaontay Ingram. Conner is still the team's best option for both early and late downs, having caught 37 of 39 targets (94.9 percent) last year in Arizona after catching 124 of 153 (81 percent) with the Steelers. Plus, Conner's injury risk is oft-overstated — he's played 80.7 percent of available games in his career, and finished each of the last four seasons with at least six total TDs and 70 yards per game.
RB Josh Jacobs
The Raiders' decision to decline a fifth-year option may have been the headline of Jacobs' offseason, but there were also some positive developments for his value, including the team's modest additions to the backfield (fourth-round rookie Zamir White and passing-down specialists Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah). Even if he falls shy of last year's 54 catches, Jacobs can reach 1,200-plus total yards and seven-plus TDs for a fourth straight season with the help of improved yardage efficiency stats in an upgraded offense. That's where offseason additions Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams come in, potentially giving Jacobs more room to run and more goal-line visits.
LOGO] RB Rashaad Penny
Penny won't stay healthy all year, but he doesn't need to in order to be a win at his current cost. His redraft ADP lingers around 100, and you'll have a hard time finding dynasty rankings that place him among the top 30 RBs. Rookie teammate Kenneth Walker often cracks the Top 20, which is reasonable, but Seattle beat writers like Bob Condotta expect Penny to be the lead guy this year for as long as he stays healthy. Patterson is probably the only RB cheaper than Penny that can be reasonably started as an RB2 in Week 1.
TE Dallas Goedert
Goedert lost a bit of his luster after the A.J. Brown trade, but perhaps not as much as ADP results and trade markets suggest. If not for a couple minor ailments and the Eagles' switch to a run-heavy offense in the second half of last season, Goedert might've broken out in the second half of last season. He averaged 6.1 targets and 65.2 yards in his nine full games after the Zach Ertz trade, with a 25.9 percent target share in those contests. In other words, Goedert has room to lose some target share to Brown if the Eagles just throw the ball more often overall in Jalen Hurts' third NFL season.
TE Albert Okwuegbunam OR 
TE David Njoku
Neither of these guys has enjoyed a big season in the NFL yet, but both are on the breakout radar for 2021 after their teams upgraded at QB and got rid of competition at TE. While Okwuegbunam's price may have dropped with rookie TE Greg Dulcich the subject of summer hype coming out of Denver, it's too early to write off the third-year pro's chances of earning a three-down role. The same goes for Njoku, who now has Harrrison Bryant as his main competition for snaps after Austin Hooper was released in the offseason.
Others to Consider
QB Derek Carr
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB Devin Singletary
RB James Robinson
WR Michael Thomas
WR Robert Woods
WR Rondale Moore
WR Will Fuller
