Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit

It's been a while since I used my favorite home league to send a message, but as has been the case in the past, some misfortune that has occurred to my brother's Stonecutters squad in our Simpsons-themed keeper league offers a good message to any owner out there suffering.

He just got crushed in large part because his wide receiver led team lost not one, not two, NOT THREE, but four running backs in the same week. Yes, only two were in his starting lineup, but still, getting a combined 1.0 point from Sony Michel and Matt Breida when they were injured while losing fumbles was a brutal hit.

Due to bye weeks, he was also forced to start Frank Gore (a lovely 3.3-point contribution) because of the Carlos Hyde trade (the third RB he lost). So, 4.3 points from three tailbacks, an ugly defeat and Bilal Powell vanishing from his bench leaves him scrambling big time for help with Julio Jones and Derrick Henry (yes, his RB situation is THAT bad) on bye.

The message here is simple. We've seen starting running backs disappear this year like Avengers after Thanos got the last Infinity Stone, or like Raiders Pro Bowlers after they hired Jon Gruden.

With Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Joe Mixon and Marlon Mack having all missed multiple games, others have thrived in their place. It's the "next man up" mentality of sports, and it must be the same for fantasy owners. There's always talent in the free-agency pool and if utilized adeptly, a team can get through tough injury stretches. Sometimes they can even find a league-winning gem. So, go get those backup RBs and keep fighting. The Stonecutters will put their faith in Raheem Mostert in hopes he can be the next replacement to cash in a big week. Spoiler alert: This column thinks he can.

In the thick of bye-week doldrums and injury headaches, don't stop fighting for those W's. Whether you're 1-6 or 6-1, there's still time to stack wins and either take over your league or at least give yourself a puncher's chance. Keep trying to improve your roster with the available talent pool. As this column always suggests, take advantage of the timely matchups. Win the week. Then win the next. Then win the season. It's football, and it's ALWAYS "next man up."

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier -- or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Can you say "bounce back"? After a dreadful performance completing barely half of his passes against a welcoming Kansas City secondary, Dalton couldn't dream up a friendlier opponent to which he can come home. The Buccaneers have allowed at least 334 yards or multiple touchdowns to all six quarterbacks they've faced, with four of those signal callers going for over 350 yards and at least three scores. With A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon out of the backfield, the Bengals offense will get on track against a Tampa Bay defense that's allowed a league-high 32.7 points per game AND just lost its heart-and-soul middle linebacker Kwon Alexander to a torn ACL.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. NYJ

Ride. The. Hot. Hand. What Trubisky is doing right now rivals Patrick Mahomes' production. At least 315 yards passing, 45 yards rushing and three total scores in three straight has Trubisky approaching weekly must-start territory. The Bears defense is only going to be as ferocious as Khalil Mack allows them, and with their All-Pro defender playing through an ankle injury, they're going to continue giving up points (69 the last two games). If the Jets can even put up a fight, Trubisky is going to need to keep making plays.

Russell Wilson, SEA at DET

If Brock Osweiler can throw for just shy of 240 yards and two scores on the Lions with Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills getting injured AND already having DeVante Parker sidelined, it feels safe to assume Wilson can at minimum match that production coming out of his bye week. Heck, even Dak Prescott notched 255 yards and two scores through the air against a Detroit defense that only employs Darius Slay as a noteworthy pass defender in the secondary. After heating up in a big way before the bye week with six passing scores on only 44 attempts, Wilson should continue to thrive, especially if the score is back-and-forth for these two 3-3 teams desperately fighting for a win.

Baker Mayfield, CLE at PIT

There will likely be turnovers, but Mayfield is otherwise trustworthy for a nice floor in two-quarterback and superflex formats. The Steelers have improved their pass defense since getting sliced and diced Week 2 by Patrick Mahomes, and they're coming off their week, but they've still allowed multiple touchdowns to every QB they've faced except Matt Ryan -- and at least he netted 285 yards in a blowout loss. This will be Mayfield's first divisional road game, so although it won't always be pretty, one thing's for sure: He'll be fighting his guts out to put points on the board and get the Browns a much-needed W.

RB
Phillip Lindsay, DEN at KC

Before surprisingly shutting down Joe Mixon and basically the entire Bengals offense, the Chiefs had allowed a score to an opposing tailback in every game including one to each of the Broncos' rookie rushers less than a month ago. All told, before facing Mixon, 10 different tailbacks had tallied at least 90 scrimmage yards or a score against Kansas City. Lindsay himself went for 79 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting, and with Royce Freeman now dealing with an ankle injury, Lindsay stands to improve on those numbers with a bigger workload expected -- and he would rank as an RB1 in many games if Freeman sits altogether. The Broncos could lump Devontae Booker in for more work, as well, in that setting, especially if Denver has to play catchup – as many teams have – against KC, but using him is a strategy best left for desperation PPR flex spots.

Rashaad Penny, SEA at DET

After giving up a 54-yard scoring jaunt to Kenyan Drake the Lions remain the worst defense at slowing down tailbacks on a per-carry basis (6.0 YPC allowed on 136 attempts). In fact, Detroit has also allowed the fourth most total rushing yards to running backs despite being one of just two teams among the top 10 in this category to have already played its bye week. Speaking of bye weeks, Penny is coming off his and should see a bigger chunk of the backfield workload after registering 119 yards on his last 20 touches before the weeklong hiatus. If the Seahawks want to make a playoff push in their final 10 games, they'll need Penny's first-round talent to start making a larger impact on the field. Count on them beginning that process this Sunday with a more evenly shared touch distribution with starter Chris Carson.

Kenjon Barner, NE at BUF

Three words: Garbage. Time. Touches. When New England has an insurmountable lead over the Bills by halftime, Barner could see upwards of 15 carries in the second half alone. He saw 10 carries versus the Bears after Sony Michel (knee) went down in a competitive game, so it stands to reason that workload could double in a blowout. Barner managed just 36 yards against Chicago, but facing a Bills defense that allowed Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins to slice them up for a combined 93 yards at 8.5 YPC after Marlon Mack consistently gouged them, Barner and his 4.4 40 speed figures to return greater results on the Monday Night Football stage.

Raheem Mostert, SF at ARZ

Mostert is seemingly a thing now. With Matt Breida aggravating his ankle early in a blowout loss to the Rams, Mostert took advantage and carved up a Rams defense among the top 10 in total yards allowed for chunk gains. A week after slicing through the Packers for 87 yards on 12 carries (7.3 YPC), the lightning-quick slashing back slipped his way to 78 scrimmage yards on 11 touches. Whether Breida sits out in the 49ers' visit to the desert, Mostert has earned another shot at double-digit touches. A great fit for the Kyle Shanahan zone-blocking scheme, the speedy, one-cut runner is poised to shred a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most scrimmage yards and touchdowns to opposing tailbacks.

Doug Martin & Jalen Richard, OAK vs. IND

Game flow will likely dictate which of this pair gets the bigger workload and delivers a useful fantasy day, but at least in the early going, each will be involved. With Marshawn Lynch (groin) on injured reserve, Martin gets something like his 11th shot at redemption following his inevitable departure from an up-and-down Tampa Bay tenure. Facing a middle-of-the-pack Indianapolis run defense that just gave up 106 scrimmage yards to Chris Ivory, perhaps Martin cashes in one of his annual turn-back-the-clock performances (even in a dreadful 2017 season, he registered at least 75 scrimmage yards or a score in each of his first four games). In the event this contest gets out of hand for the Raiders, however, Richard will be there to take dumpoff after dumpoff from Derek Carr to provide a flex-worthy amount of catches and total yards (potential PPR gold if you're in a pinch).

WR
Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ vs. SF

Fitzgerald has been bothered by nagging back and hamstring issues in recent weeks, but that's not been the real problem for one of the all-time greats. That problem – tofu-bland play caller Mike McCoy – has finally been extricated from the desert. While rookie quarterback Josh Rosen has been a mixed bag thus far, one thing feels awfully safe as the Cardinals move on to interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich: Guys that take over play calling midseason tend to lean on their top talents. Even at 35 years old, Fitzgerald is the best receiver Arizona has, and the Leftwich's contemporary should see a heavy workload after finally finding the end zone in last week's blowout loss. With a divisional opponent coming to town as one of just six defenses to have allowed at least 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns to wide receivers, Fitzgerald could be due for his biggest performance of the season.

Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. TB

Boyd may have struggled in two of his last three after an especially hot stretch of play, but it's safe to ignore that slump for at least one week. A.J. Green was the only Bengals player to show up last Sunday versus Kansas City, but a Buccaneers defense that is one of two to have allowed at least 100 catches, 1,100 yards and double-digit scores to opposing wideouts will cure what ails Boyd and the Bengals' O.

DeSean Jackson & Chris Godwin, TB at CIN

In their last four games, the Bengals have allowed seven different wide receivers to post at least 74 yards or a touchdown, with four different 100-yard performances. Five of those seven receivers were the second or third options on their team. Meanwhile, Jackson has at least 84 scrimmage yards or a score in all but one outing, and Godwin has hit paydirt in four games. While the Cincinnati secondary is primarily focused on the whereabouts of Mike Evans, expect these two to continue their success for the pass-heavy Bucs.

Tre'Quan Smith, NO at MIN

The Vikings have allowed just one rushing touchdown and 26 catches to opposing tailbacks. Meanwhile, their normally stalwart secondary has been getting burned by injuries in recent weeks. First, their top draft pick, Mike Hughes, tore his ACL two weeks ago. Then last Sunday, their best corner, Xavier Rhodes, needed to be carted off the field with an injury. They do still have former first-round picks Trae Waynes and Harrison Smith patrolling the secondary, but while they are preoccupied with shadowing Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, respectively, Smith can take major advantage of his matchups. The third-round rookie selection has blossomed recently with Ted Ginn out of the lineup (knee/IR) and after seeing six targets to Cameron Meredith's zero versus Baltimore, Sean Payton and Drew Brees clearly think highly of the 6-foot-2 Smith.

Donte Moncrief, JAX vs. PHI (in London)

If injuries or bye weeks have you looking for a dart throw, there could be far worse than Moncrief, who has emerged over the past four weeks as the Jaguars' top receiving threat. Sure, he's not without risk (he has a goose egg in that stretch), but facing an Eagles defense that's allowed the second-most catches (113) and yards (1,410) in the league to wide receivers, Moncrief should be far closer to his output in the other three games during this run. In those three, he's posted at least five catches and 76 yards in each.

TE
C.J. Uzomah, CIN vs. TB

After notching his second score of the season last week, Uzomah remains useful with the league's most generous pass defense coming to town. As if stopping the pass were not already tough enough for a Buccaneers group that's allowed the most aerial yards per game (327.5) and touchdowns (18), losing star middle linebacker Kwon Alexander to a torn ACL is only going to make defending tight ends and running backs that much more difficult. Uzomah, who's posted a solid 43 yards or a score in five of his last six contests, gets to be the first beneficiary.

Ben Watson, NO at MIN

The Vikings have been tormented by tight ends all season. At first, it was just the best of the best doing damage against them: George Kittle, Jimmy Graham and Zach Ertz each put up at least 90 yards versus Harrison Smith and Co – but the last two weeks, anyone who plays the position has had the opportunity to make noise. First, Ricky Seals-Jones turned in a season-best 69 yards. Then rookie Chris Herndon went 4/42/1 on them. Coming off a nearly identical stat line himself, Watson figures to stay involved as a plus-matchup advantage for a Saints offense known to make the most of them.

DOWNGRADE

It's awfully hard to sit a guy who's had four straight games with at least 278 yards and multiple scores passing, but it's the right move in the case of Wentz. His receiving weapons are simply too limited, and if the Jaguars can hold Patrick Mahomes to zero touchdown passes, they can shut anyone out of the end zone. Simply put, it's easy to find more palatable options than Wentz this week.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. BAL

After an embarrassing first half in Week 2, the Ravens defense has been absolutely stifling since and has particularly traveled well. During a three-game road stretch they allowed just two touchdown passes and one 300-yard passer, and for the latter it took an overtime period to boost Baker Mayfield's numbers. Bottom line: They limited the two best passers they've faced – Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees – to a combined 486 yards at a pedestrian 6.3 YPA. Newton, who has one game above 275 yards through the air, is nowhere near these two as a passer of those two, nor does he have the benefit of elite weapons surrounding him. Unless this is a vintage game for him using his legs, the Panthers' franchise player is going to struggle.

Jared Goff, LAR vs. GB

Just because C.J. Beathard tossed two scores and nearly 250 yards against the Packers doesn't mean it's time to pencil Goff in for a huge game. In fact, if the 49ers game revealed anything, the path to beating Aaron Rodgers and Co. is to run, run and run some more. San Francisco tailbacks gouged the Green Bay defense for 148 yards and a score on 26 carries, and the Rams would be wise to take that a step further by feeding Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown over 40 combined times, especially with chain-moving wideout Cooper Kupp (knee) sidelined. That's essentially the issue with trusting Goff: There's no volume. He's attempted more than 33 passes just once and, in part because of that, has produced three games with one or no touchdowns. Unless the roulette wheel lands on an ultra-efficient outing or he finally racks up some attempts, the production could be modest for the fourth straight week.

RB
Latavius Murray, MIN vs. NO

It seems all but certain that Dalvin Cook will miss his fifth game of the season, leaving Murray to continue in a bellcow role. That role has left Murray owners with a mixed bag: 87 total scrimmage yards in Cook's first two absences, 241 and three scores in the last two. After running hot the last two weeks (5.7 YPC), the veteran workhorse is going to run into a cooler Sunday night. The Saints have been the best run defense in football by a wide margin (72.3 yards allowed per game, 3.1 YPC) and have held top-10 rushers Saquon Barkley and Adrian Peterson to a combined 50 yards rushing within the last month. Unless Murray – who's averaged 12.0 receiving yards per game in his career – suddenly becomes a dynamic dual threat, he's likely to leave owners sorely disappointed this week.

Isaiah Crowell, NYJ at CHI

It can only stand to benefit Crowell that Bilal Powell has landed on injured reserve with an unfortunate neck injury. The league's sixth-leading rusher was barely leading his own team in carries in a timeshare that was almost exactly even (90 touches for Crowell, 91 for Powell). Unfortunately, however, this is not the week for Crowell to take full advantage of the extra work. The Bears are the only defense that's yet to allow a rushing touchdown, and Chicago has given up the fourth-fewest ground yards (87.5 per contest). Moreover, if the Jets get into any kind of hole, rookie satellite back Trenton Cannon, who hauled in four passes for 69 yards in his debut last week, figures to eat into the veteran power back's workload.

T.J. Yeldon, JAX vs. PHI (in London)

Just because it's obvious does not mean it should not be acknowledged -- and seriously considered. With at least 68 scrimmage yards in every contest, 590 on the season and five scores -- including four in the last four games -- Yeldon has been an ideal flex option. That will end in London, however. The addition of Carlos Hyde to steal from his already limited ground work (more than 12 carries once since Week 1), and a meeting with Philadelphia's second-ranked run defense (85.7 yards allowed per contest) is a bad equation for the fourth-year tailback.

WR
Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. JAX (in London)

As badly as the Jaguars seem to be playing right now after three consecutive ugly losses, it's important to note that they're still awfully stingy to receivers, in particular those who line up on the outside. They've given up just five touchdowns to the position this season, and two of those came to Cole Beasley working out of the slot. Since Jeffery leaves the slot work to Nelson Agholor, expect him to fail at finding the end zone for just the second time this year.

Kenny Golladay & Marvin Jones, DET vs. SEA

Since struggling to limit Broncos wide receivers in Week 1, the Seahawks have been among the best at slowing down wideouts. In five outings, they've allowed only 123.8 yards per game to the position and given up three touchdowns. Only stud slot receiver Cooper Kupp and the versatile Robert Woods produced more than double figures in standard-scoring formats against them, and for Woods, that required a somewhat fluky 56-yard run. Although the Lions figure to have to throw it more than they did in a comfortable win versus the Dolphins -- considering a Super Bowl-winning quarterback is coming to town off his bye week -- it's hard to feel great about Golladay or Jones when the second- and third-most-targeted Detroit receivers (respectively) have averaged five or fewer targets in their last three contests, with each seeing just four looks in two of those outings.

Devin Funchess, CAR vs. BAL

Funchess has 77 yards or a score in four of his last five games, but he'll be hard-pressed to make it five of six. The Ravens have given up seven touchdowns to wide receivers, and five of those were snagged by A.J. Green, Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas and none of that trio reached the 70-yard plateau. Since Funchess is not in the same stratosphere as those elite No. 1 targets, expect him to struggle versus a stingy secondary led by Eric Weddle, Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey.