This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.
Week 4 Recap:
Week 4 was a very low scoring fantasy week, especially compared to Week 3's offensive explosion. There were many disappointing efforts from highly-owned studs, such as Julio Jones and Aaron Rodgers, while Devonta Freeman owners enjoyed their Sunday, as the second-year running back scored three touchdowns for the second consecutive week. There were very few players that scored multiple touchdowns, which shows just how much player performances can change from week to week in the NFL. Drew Brees, Jay Cutler and DeMarco Murray returned to their respective starting lineups, while there were oddly very few notable injuries.
Analyzing Vegas lines and projected game totals (Over/Under):
Another useful tool in helping us analyze the upcoming week's games is looking at the Vegas betting lines and projected game totals. Las Vegas odds makers are incredibly good at what they do, so take advantage of their knowledge and projections and use them to help us predict outcomes and game flow. If a team is a heavy favorite according to Vegas (favored by at least seven points) then that team will likely run the ball in the second half of their game to protect whatever lead they may have. On the other hand, if a team is a heavy underdog, then they will likely be losing in the second half and will be passing the ball often, especially in garbage time. Garbage time can be very productive for quarterbacks and wide receivers occasionally, as the defense with the big lead usually plays very conservatively.
Projected game totals is another useful guide in helping us project which teams and players may have big weeks. If a game total is at least 50 points then there will be players in that game that might score multiple touchdowns. If a game is projected to be low scoring, on the other hand, then that might be a game where we want to target a defense and avoid skill-position players.
Week 5 Vegas lines and projected game totals:
Jaguars at Buccaneers (Buccaneers -3, total points = 42)
Bills at Titans (Bills -2.5, total points = 42)
Browns at Ravens (Ravens -6.5, total points = 43.5)
Redskins at Falcons (Falcons -7.5, total points = 48)
Bears at Chiefs (Chiefs -9.5, total points = 45)
Saints at Eagles (Eagles -4.5, total points = 49)
Rams at Packers (Packers -9, total points = 46.5)
Seahawks at Bengals (Bengals -3, total points = 43)
Cardinals at Lions (Cardinals -2.4, total points = 44)
Patriots at Cowboys (Patriots -9, total points = 49.5)
Broncos at Raiders (Broncos -5.5, total points = 43.5)
49ers at Giants (Giants -7, total points = 43)
Steelers at Chargers (Chargers -3, total points = 45.5)
Analysis:
The three games with the highest projected totals are Redskins at Falcons, Saints at Eagles, and Patriots at Cowboys. Selecting players from those teams is a good idea, but the Falcons and Patriots are both heavy favorites, so they may not pass the ball much in the second half of their respective games if they have a large lead. The Packers are projected to score nearly 28 points at home against the Rams, so look for Aaron Rodgers to bounce back with another big game at Lambeau Field. The Chiefs are heavy favorites at home against the Bears, so consider Jamaal Charles at running back, as he has had some huge fantasy games in the past against weak opponents. Finally, there are a few projected low-scoring affairs, so consider the Giants defense and the Buccaneers defense, as they are both playing at home against weak opponents who are projected to score under 20 points each.
Thursday Night Football Preview:
The Colts travel to Houston to take on the Texans in an AFC South battle. The big question is the availability of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who claims he is ready to go after missing last week's game against the Jaguars. If Luck plays then the Colts' offense is in a good spot against the struggling Texans defense, which got embarrassed by the Falcons in their last game. Despite his struggles last weekend, Ryan Mallett will get the start ahead of Brian Hoyer. Arian Foster returned to the lineup in Week 4 and should be in line for more work after only eight carries in his season debut. He has a nice matchup against the Colts' defense, which has been poor so far this season, particularly against the run.
