FanDuel NFL: Week 13 Breakdown

FanDuel NFL: Week 13 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

We've reached the main slate of Week 13, which features 10 games with six teams on bye. That leaves us with fewer options than usual to work with, but there are still some interesting angles to attack. As a broad overview, it's a weak pool of running backs, but there are a few interesting stacking options to make up for it. With that, let's take a deeper look at the Week 13 player pool.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

Over/UnderRoad TeamRoad Implied TotalHome TeamHome Implied Total
40.5Chargers23Patriots17.5
47Lions25.75Saints21.25
33.5Falcons17.5Jets16
41.5Cardinals18Steelers23.5
42.5Colts22Titans20
49.5Dolphins29.5Commanders20
47.5Broncos22Texans25.5
36.5Panthers15.5Buccaneers21
47.549ers25Eagles22.5
40.5Browns18.5Rams22
  • The teams with the highest implied team totals are the Dolphins, Texans, Lions and 49ers.
  • The most stackable games based on game totals include the Dolphins vs. Commanders, Broncos vs. Texans, 49ers vs. Eagles and Lions vs. Saints.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Zack Moss at TEN ($5,600)

Moss is the free square of the week following the news of Jonathan Taylor's (thumb) absence emerged after prices were set. Moss served as the lead back early this season while Taylor was sidelined, and he delivered performances of 18.7, 21.5, 32.5 and 14.9 FD points. The volume combined with price point can't be beat, even if he is going to be the most popular player of the entire slate.

Amari Cooper at LAR ($6,700)

The Browns' offense isn't exactly one to target, but the switch to Joe Flacco should be beneficial to Cooper at the very least. Flacco has the reputation of targeting the top receiving in his team's offense, and in his starts with the Jets last year, Garrett Wilson had 11.4 targets per game. If Cooper sees that same volume, he'll be a key value at the position this week.  

Other Value Options

QB Derek Carr vs. DET ($7,000)
QB Gardner Minshew at TEN ($6,800)
RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. LAC ($7,300)
RB Najee Harris vs. ARI ($7,200)
RB Javonte Williams at HOU ($6,600)
RB Jaylen Warren vs. ARI ($6,500)
WR Garrett Wilson vs. ARL ($6,900)
WR Josh Downs at TEN ($6,100)
WR Greg Dortch at PIT ($5,200)
TE Logan Thomas vs. MIA ($5,200)
TE Cade Otton vs. CAR ($5,100)
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. IND ($4,800)
DEF Rams vs. CLE ($3,700)
DEF Texans vs. DEN ($3,500)
 

Stacks to Consider

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will almost certainly be the most popular team to roster this week, and for good reason. The Commanders allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the second most to  wide receivers. Meanwhile, the explosive play of both Tua Tagovailoa ($8,400) and Tyreek Hill ($10,000) are well established at this point. That's about as straightforward as it can get.

There are a few other choices still to be made, however. The first is Jaylen Waddle ($7,800). Despite the state of the Miami offense, Waddle has topped 14 FD points only three times this season. Nevertheless, there's a case to be made for him this week beyond simply the matchup. In two games since the team's Week 10 bye, Waddle has run 35 and 27 routes. In his first eight games of the season, he ran more than 35 routes just once and topped 27 routes only three times. Waddle spoke openly about the bye week allowing him to get healthy, and his usage since suggests that he was telling the truth.

The final decision will come down to a Washington bringback. Based on usage, Terry McLaurin ($6,700) is the obvious choice, but he's been limited to single-digit FD points in four consecutive games. Curtis Samuel ($6,200) has had a few spike weeks, but a lot of minimal production in between. Logan Thomas ($5,200) is a key part of the offense but has been extremely inefficient (1.15 YPRR) and is used in the short areas of the field (6.3 aDOT). This isn't a spot to force a bringback.

49ers at Eagles 

For those who look for the best game environments to stack (rather than individual teams), this is the best spot of the week. Philadelphia is the premier pass funnel defense in the league (most points allowed to WR, least to RB), and the 49ers' offense has the skill-position players to take advantage. Brandon Aiyuk ($8,000) has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, but that has masked the fact that he has only 13 combined targets in that span. He's gone from the clear top pass catcher to more of a big-play threat. Deebo Samuel ($7,300) is part of the reason for that, as he saw nine targets on Thanksgiving and has 17 opportunities in the same three-game span. George Kittle ($7,400) is typically touchdown reliant, though 10 of his 61 targets this season have come inside the 20. It's a terrible matchup on paper, but never count out Christian McCaffrey ($9,800). Of course, we also need to talk about Brock Purdy ($7,800), who is one of the more appealing quarterbacks thanks to the matchup and because the 49ers are likely going to have to keep throwing to keep a lead over the Philadelphia offense.

A unique way to build through this game would be to overstack the San Francisco offense and fade the Philly offense. While the most likely outcome is that a player in the Philly offense at least meets expectations, there is a reasonable case to be made to fade them all. The first is the 49ers' defense, as they've allowed only 4.3, 11.34 and 8.3 fantasy points to quarterbacks in the last three weeks. Given his status as the highest-priced quarterback, that puts Jalen Hurts ($9,000) in a tough spot. A.J. Brown ($8,400) was on a historic run of production but has shown that he has a minimal floor, posting 1.3 and 12.2 FD points in his last two games. DeVonta Smith ($7,700) has stepped up in Brown's struggles but doesn't come at much of a discount. Dallas Goedert ($5,500) (forearm) isn't likely to play.

The case for the Eagles is fairly obvious, as both Hurts and Brown have elite ceilings. This just may not be the spot they reach it.    

Chargers

We can be a bit briefer with the Chargers. The Patriots aren't a matchup to target, but the offense is extremely concentrated between Keenan Allen ($9,000) (quad) and Austin Ekeler ($8,000). If the Chargers can muster three touchdowns, they're likely to come through that duo.

High-Priced Heroes

Chris Olave vs. DET ($7,500)

It's something of a surprise that Olave is projected to play given that he suffered a concussion in Week 12. However, he practiced in full Friday, suggesting he'll clear protocol and be in the lineup. That sets him up for a great matchup against the Lions, who have been torched by quarterbacks and wide receivers this season. Olave has maintained an elite target share in a league-average offense, which should be enough to deliver in this spot.

Tank Dell vs. DEN ($8,200)

Dell is yet another player questionable with an injury heading into Sunday's game, though his practice pattern suggests he'll play. Even in a potentially crowded Texans' receiver corps, Dell has carved out enough of a role to produce high-end results. We've seen that in recent weeks, as he's delivered 26.6 and 24.9 FD points in two of his last four games. The Broncos matchup isn't great, but if the Texans near their implied team total, Dell will likely have a significant role in the team doing so.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Josh Downs at TEN ($6,100)

It wasn't reflected in his stat line last week, but Downs had 13 targets. That's significant because it came immediately after the team's bye, prior to which, Downs had been hampered by a knee injury. He hasn't been on the injury report since and should now remain in line for a prolific share of the targets in Indianapolis. Game script could work against him this week, but he's likely to see his price rise in the coming weeks.  

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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