FanDuel NFL: Week 15 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

The Week 15 main slate features 10 games thanks to Saturday games and the traditional primetime slots. There are several high total games, though most are projected to be relatively lopsided, meaning this isn't an obvious time for game stacks. There are still plenty of interesting angles to consider, which we'll cover in the breakdown below.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• The 49ers, Rams, Bills and Cowboys all have implied team totals of more than 24.
• The Commanders-Rams and Cowboys-Bills stand out as the most stackable games when looking at the sides and totals.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Antonio Gibson vs. LAR ($5,600) and Chris Rodriguez vs. LAR ($4,700)

Brian Robinson (hamstring) isn't ready to return after Washington's bye, setting up some value in the Washington backfield. Neither Gibson nor Rodriguez is likely to serve as a true workhorse, but they should have defined enough roles to still return value at cost. Rodriguez is the definition of a between-the-tackles runner as 93.8 percent of his rush attempts this season have gone up the middle. We can project him to have a two-down role, while Gibson likely will mix in for traditional running situations while handling the passing-down and hurry-up situations. The Rams are a pretty tough matchup for running backs, and they've given up the fewest receiving yards to the position this season. Given that, I'd have slightly more interest in Rodriguez, particularly because he should have the goal-line role.

Ezekiel Elliott vs. KC ($6,500)

With Zack Moss on the Saturday slate, Elliott takes over as the back with a ton of projectable volume paired with questionable efficiency. His involvement as a receiver should salvage that inefficiency, however, as he has 13 targets and 11 catches across his last two games. The Chiefs were just shredded by James Cook as a pass catcher in Week 14, and they've recently given up more than 30 receiving yards to Jeff Wilson and D'Andre Swift. That should give Elliott a safe floor, and if he happens to fall into the end zone, it should be a big game.

Other Value Options

QB Matthew Stafford at WAS ($7,200)
QB Will Levis vs. HOU ($6,800)
RB Devin Singletary at TEN ($6,000)
RB Jerick McKinnon at NE ($5,500)
WR Demarcus Robinson at WAS ($5,600)
WR Wan'Dale Robinson at NO ($5,300)
TE Darren Waller at NO ($5,500)
TE Tyler Conklin at MIA ($5,000)
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. HOU ($5,000)
TE Tucker Kraft vs. TB ($4,700)

Stacks to Consider

This isn't a great week for game stacks. One game stands out, but otherwise, skinny stacks or stacking single teams makes the most sense on this slate.

Cowboys at Bills

This is the obvious game stack in Week 15, and the only one I'd be eager to utilize. The reasons are pretty straightforward. Josh Allen ($9,000) and Dak Prescott ($8,600) are the top-scoring quarterbacks on the slate and have clear top targets. Stefon Diggs ($8,500) has been in a slump the last several weeks, but he's still drawn 11 targets in his last two matchups and remains the focal point of Buffalo's passing attack. The narrative will be that Dalton Kincaid's ($5,600) role slipped due to the return of Dawson Knox, but he still saw eight targets and topped 40 routes run for only the third time this season last week against the Chiefs. He should be on the radar. The other bet is that none of the Bills' pass catchers will have big games (a viable bet lately) and instead bet on Allen and James Cook ($7,200) to account for the offense.

CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) is the obvious place to start in Dallas. He's really taken off across his last seven games, during which he's topped 30 points twice and 25 points three times. He's posted no fewer than 13.5 points in that span, giving him an impressive floor and ceiling combination. Brandin Cooks ($6,300) is the other notable wide receiver in the offense, but he's reliant upon big plays and touchdowns to reach viable scores. Jake Ferguson ($5,900) has an inconsistent role in the offense, but the only player in the league with more targets inside the 10-yard line is Tyreek Hill. Tony Pollard ($7,000) has raised his floor in recent weeks, but he hasn't posted a 20-point score since Week 1.

49ers

The 49ers should be in consideration every week, but that's particularly true when there aren't other obvious standout options available. They have been close to a lock to score four touchdowns per week and the matchup/implied total suggest we shouldn't expect that to change. Deebo Samuel ($8,400) has been the hero the last two games, but Brandon Aiyuk ($7,800) and George Kittle ($6,800) are also capable of posting big performances. Of course, playing Christian McCaffrey ($10,300) is an option any week. For those who can find enough value to roster him, pairing McCaffrey with one of the other trio of offensive playmakers on rosters makes a lot of sense.

Rams

Cooper Kupp ($8,200) looks to be healthy again and earned double-digit targets in Week 14 for the first time since Week 8. His reemergence has dented the consistency of Puka Nacua ($8,000), but he still has some ceiling in his profile, reaching 16.2 and 21.9 FD points in two of his last four games. Of course, the reemergence of Matthew Stafford ($7,200) and the standout workload for Kyren Williams ($9,600) are also key parts of the offense. The matchup against Washington should allow multiple skill-position players to pay off this week, as the Commanders allow the eighth-most FD points to running backs and the second most to wide receivers.

Skinny Stacks to Consider

Jayden Reed ($6,100) and Mike Evans ($8,300)
Jaylen Waddle ($7,000) (if Tyreek Hill is out) and Garrett Wilson ($6,900)

High-Priced Heroes

Derrick Henry ($8,300) and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) vs. HOU

Tennessee could be the low-owned stack to deliver this week. The offense isn't all that explosive, but touches are heavily concentrated between Henry and Hopkins. Henry has had big scores in three consecutive games, but that's due to him scoring two touchdowns on each occasion. However, he also 59 touches in that span, and he'll now face a banged-up Texans' linebacker corps.

The Titans' passing attack is hardly explosive, but Hopkins has had 12 targets in consecutive games. That's contributed to the team's offensive success, so we shouldn't expect it to change. This is the ultimate revenge game for him as well, so for those interested in narrative, there's another factor in Hopkins' favor.

Bijan Robinson vs. CAR ($8,600)

We know the Falcons want to run the ball, and everything in Sunday's game suggests they should be able to. The Panthers' secondary is the strength of their defense, but they are crushed by rushing attacks. The Falcons should play from ahead due to Carolina's pathetic offense. Even if Robinson splits carries with Tyler Allgeier, there should be plenty of volume to go around.  

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Jayden Reed vs. TB ($6,100)

The Packers'  second-half surge was halted by the Giants on Monday night, but they should be in a great spot to rebound. The Bucs are almost certain to be missing half of their starting secondary, and quite possibly three-quarters of the group. Christian Watson (hamstring) is also likely to be sidelined, so Reed is going to get touches against a vulnerable secondary. Reed has at least 16 FD points in three of his last five games, easily out-pacing Romeo Doubs ($6,400), and he could be in position to turn in his first 20-point performance of the season.