FanDuel NFL: Week 15 Saturday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

We get our first Saturday slate of the NFL season as the college slate winds down (though there are several bowl games). The lineup is interesting from an NFL standings perspective, as it will have a huge impact on the AFC playoff picture. From a DFS perspective, the small slate allows us to take some different angles than a full main slate. Given the way the player pool and matchups fall, tight end could be the key factor to success in Saturday's contests.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• The Lions are in a tier of their own in terms of implied points. Similarly, the Lions-Broncos matchup is best game to target as measured by the game total.

Quarterback

There aren't many standouts available at quarterback, with Jared Goff ($7,900) leading the way in salary. However, Russell Wilson ($7,800) sets up well on the opposite side of the game. The Broncos typically want to run their offense through the ground game, but if they scheme to their opponent, they'll be more aggressive with the pass game in this matchup. The strength of the Lions' defense is against the ground game, but they struggle to defend the pass. Wilson has a pretty safe range of production between 15 and 18 points, but he's topped 20 on two occasions this season. Week 15 could be the third occasion. 

There are a few potential value options at the position. Mitch Trubisky ($7,000) is the most expensive of the group. It's easy to dismiss him due to his lack of on-field success for the Steelers, but even in the team's embarrassing loss to the Patriots in Week 14, he managed to put up 21.6 FD points. The Colts force a lot of turnovers, but they've also allowed an average of 17.6 FD points to quarterbacks this season.

Nick Mullens ($6,500) is interesting as the cheapest available starting option. It's his first start with the Vikings, so we don't have a sample with which to work. What we do know is that he'll have a great group of skill-position players to distribute the ball to in a mediocre matchup.

Running Back

Public perception of Joe Mixon ($8,200) probably doesn't match his recent level of production or workload. He has at least 20 touches in three of four games since Jake Browning took over under center and has managed at least 18.5 FD points in each of those three games. Unfortunately, his price reflects that, and he draws a tough matchup against a Minnesota defense that hasn't allowed an individual back to surpass 11 FD points since Week 7 (Christian McCaffrey).

The Broncos aren't the same excellent matchup they were to begin the season, but the clear way to attack them is still on the ground. That aligns with Detroit's preferred way to run its offense. That combined with projected game script points to David Montgomery ($7,600) as a good option.

Moving another tier down, Zack Moss ($6,600) has burned the DFS community the last few weeks after retaking the workhorse role in Indianapolis with Jonathan Taylor (thumb) sidelined. However, his volume remains strong when considering cost (21 and 17 the last two weeks). The Steelers are a neutral matchup, so it's another good spot to hope Moss returns to early season form.

The reliable value option is Ty Chandler ($6,000), as Alexander Mattison (ankle) is out. Coach Kevin O'Connell said Chandler will serve as the lead back, and Cincinnati is another positive to neutral matchup.

Any back cheaper than Chandler runs into some volume concern, but Chase Brown ($5,200) and Kene Nwangwu ($4,700) are both punt plays that could pay off. Brown is the better of those two options.  

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver is a tough position Saturday, because the top receivers aren't in great spots. However, there aren't many value options that jump out either. Justin Jefferson ($8,800) expects to play and has a decent matchup, but there has to be some question about the quarterback situation as well as Jefferson's own health status. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100) faces a tough matchup and has topped 16 FD points only five times this season. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,000) can go off in any given game, but his four-game sample with Browning is uninspiring.

Just slightly below that group is Michael Pittman ($7,900), who has produced similarly to St. Brown and draws a more favorable matchup this week. Courtland Sutton ($7,300) is touchdown or bust, but the Lions have surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season.

After those five receivers, we move out of the range of players with reliable volume or production profiles, but we'll highlight some of the best options. Diontae Johnson ($6,700) has strong splits with Trubisky under center. Since Trubisky joined the Steelers in 2022, Johnson has 10.46 half-PPR points per game with Trubisky and only 7.32 with Kenny Pickett. The Colts secondary has been up and down, but if there is going to be any passing attack for Pittsburgh, it's likely to run through Johnson.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,600) has admittedly had a miserable season, but coach Sean Payton went out of his way after Week 14 to point out that Jeudy had gotten wide open on several occasions and been missed. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the team prioritize him this week.

Two players are priced below Jeudy who could be week winners but could just as easily post zero fantasy points. Alec Pierce ($5,000) showed his upside in Week 13 with the first 100-yard receiving performance of his career on his way to a 17.5 point-performance. At his price, that would be an excellent return. Similarly, Jameson Williams ($5,100) doesn't have a consistent role in the Detroit offense, but he only needs one touch to find the end zone. Pierce has the better matchup, but Williams has been the better player as measured by targets per route run and yards per route run.

Tight End

This may be the simplest position of all. Pay all the way up for T.J. Hockenson ($7,000) or Sam LaPorta ($6,800), or pay down for Tanner Hudson ($5,000). The Bengals allow the most fantasy-points per game to tight ends, so that's a strong case for Hockenson. The Broncos allow the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, so LaPorta is also in play. Hudson has at least four receptions in three of four games with Browning and can be penciled in for five to nine points.

Hockenson or LaPorta could be the key to this slate, because if one goes off, they'll provide a massive advantage at the position. The gap in production isn't likely to be as wide between the elite and mid-tier options at other positions.

Defense and Special Teams

The Broncos ($3,500) are the cheapest option but are actually a solid play. They lead the league in takeaways, while the Lions aren't particularly strong at protecting the ball. The field is likely to see that, and this will be a spot where a lot of lineups pay down.

The Colts ($4,400) are the pay-up option I'm interested in. They are above average at forcing turnovers and are second in the league in sacks per game. Trubisky is a turnover machine, so that lines up well for Indy.