FanDuel NFL: Week 7 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

Injuries and bye weeks have set in, which means smaller slates and fewer appealing options to roster. In Week 7, six teams are on bye and at least three backup quarterbacks will start (more likely five). It might not be the most inspiring week of offense we've seen in the NFL.

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• Scoring is down across the league, and that's reflected in the implied totals we've had for both Weeks 6 and 7. Only two games have a total of 45 or higher: Green Bay at Denver and Los Angeles Chargers at the Chiefs.
• Buffalo, Green Bay, Baltimore and the Rams are additional teams with significant implied totals.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis, but it can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Jahmyr Gibbs at BAL ($6,200)

There's been significant movement in the Detroit backfield this week. After missing the last two games, Gibbs will enter Sunday's matchup without an injury designation. He should be in line for a significant workload, as David Montgomery (ribs) is out. We saw Gibbs take over the backfield in Week 3, when he racked up 17 carries but only two targets. For him to pay off, he'll need to find the end zone, or at minimum, increase his usage as a receiver. The Ravens have allowed only two total touchdowns to backs but have given up the eighth-most receiving yards. At his price, he's worth considering, especially when considering the rest of the options at the position.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. BUF ($6,600)

The case for Stevenson is a bit flimsy on the surface, as New England has one of the worst offenses in the league, and that's reflected in their implied team total. Simultaneously, he's had at least 15 touches in five of six games this season while ranking 12th at the position in targets and 16th in carries. The caveat is that, even more so than Gibbs, Stevenson likely needs to find the end zone to pay off on his price. Once again, we have to consider the alternatives. For example, Brian Robinson, projects to be extremely popular and checks in $700 more expensive than Stevenson, yet has a remarkably similar profile.

Other Value Options

QB Sam Howell at NYG ($7,400)
QB Russell Wilson vs.GB ($7,200)
QB Geno Smith vs. ARI ($7,000)
QB Matthew Stafford vs. PIT ($6,700)
RB Zach Evans vs. PIT ($4,800)
WR Amari Cooper vs. IND ($6,800) (if Deshaun Watson plays)
WR Marquise Brown at SEA ($6,700) 
WR Curtis Samuel at NYG ($6,400)
WR Romeo Doubs at DEN ($6,200)
WR Diontae Johnson at LAR ($6,000)
TE Michael Mayer at CHI ($4,900)
TE Trey McBride at SEA ($4,600)

Stack to Consider

This is a bad weekend for stacks, so we'll focus on one game and then include some notes on several other games to consider rather than write up a full game.

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

This game is likely to go under-rostered considering it has the second-highest implied total of the slate. That's because it has a wide range of outcomes. Tying the outcome of lineups to Russell Wilson ($7,200) and Jordan Love ($7,800) is uncomfortable, but this game also has shootout potential. The Broncos have allowed 33.3 points per game, and while that's inflated by the 70 points they allowed to Miami, Denver has allowed opponents to score 30 or more points in four of six matchups. Even better, the Packers distribution of targets has become fairly clear. Since the return of Christian Watson ($6,600), Jayden Reed ($5,300) has only seven targets across two games and 31 total receiving yards. Romeo Doubs ($6,200) has remained consistent, albeit without much ceiling. If he weren't mentioned in this section, Watson would be in the "Smash Spot" section.

Don't sleep on the Broncos side of this. The Packers are at best a league-average defense and will remain without De'Vondre Campbell and potentially Quay Walker and Darnell Savage. Courtland Sutton ($6,600) has been Wilson's top and most efficient target.

Don't be afraid to skinny stack this game (Watson-Sutton) and look for quarterback elsewhere.

Other Stacks to Consider

• Seattle - Geno Smith ($7,000)-Tyler Lockett ($6,800), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,880 (assuming DK Metcalf is out). Seattle has the highest implied team total, but have been a letdown offense this season. They have the chance to snap that, as Arizona is consistently one of the better matchups.
• Buffalo – Josh Allen ($9,000)-Stefon Diggs ($9,000). On a slate that seems to offer limited offense, pairing two players that can put up 25 points apiece is always a good play.
• Kansas City – Patrick Mahomes ($9,200)-Travis Kelce ($8,500)-Rashee Rice ($5,600). Same as the Buffalo note.
• Los Angeles Rams – Matthew Stafford ($6,700)-Cooper Kupp ($9,700). Perhaps the most potent combination of all, but the concern is the offensive line against Pittsburgh's pass rush.

High-Priced Hero

Kenneth Walker vs. ARI ($8,800)

Touchdowns are king on FD and few players have been better at finding their way to the end zone this season than Walker. He's accounted for 76 percent of Seattle's carries inside the red zone and leads the league with 12 carries inside the five. Walker has also accounted for 69 rushing yards per game and has three gains of more than 20 yards. In a week where his team has the highest implied total, he's one of the few running backs worth paying all the way up for.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary)

Drake London at TB ($6,900)

It seems as if Atlanta has finally figured out how to get the ball to their elite pass catchers. Since Week 2, London has seen no fewer than six targets and has 21 combined across his last two games. With the exception of their matchup against the Saints, Tampa Bay has surrendered solid performances to the top wide receivers this season (Justin Jefferson - 19.5 FD points, DJ Moore - 13.4 FD points, A.J. Brown – 17.6 FD points, Amon-Ra St. Brown – 24.4 FD points).

Isiah Pacheco vs. LAC ($7,400)

Rather than trying to throw a dart to find the right wide receiver in K.C., it makes sense to pay for guaranteed touches in what will be one of the more popular games of the week. Pacheco has quietly been one of the most reliable backs from a volume perspective this season, while the Chargers have allowed 21.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. Stack Pacheco with Kelce if you think this is the week the Chiefs; offense gets on track.