I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Brock Purdy (at IND) — 50% started
Start Over — Baker Mayfield (at CAR), Justin Herbert (at DAL), Jordan Love (at CHI)
Indianapolis did a great job of limiting Seattle to field goals last week, but CB Sauce Gardner re-injured his calf along the way, likely leaving the Colts without their top three defensive players for Week 16 (DT DeForest Buckner and CB Charvarius Ward are on IR). San Francisco's offense, on the other hand, was the healthiest it's been all season the past two weeks. There's some question about WR Ricky Pearsall (knee/ankle) again, but the 49ers should otherwise have all their starters available.
- Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at WAS), Jared Goff (vs. PIT), Aaron Rodgers (at DET), Tyler Shough (vs. NYJ), Quinn Ewers (vs. CIN), Gardner Minshew (at TEN)
Running Backs 👍
Omarion Hampton (at DAL) — 59% started
Start Over — Jaylen Warren (at DET), Tony Pollard (vs. KC), Kenneth Walker (vs. LAR)
Kimani Vidal still played more snaps than Hampton last week, but the rookie took over the lead in terms of rush attempts (15 to 12) while posting more fantasy points and better efficiency stats for a second straight week. It won't come as any surprise if Hampton's role continues to grow, but even if it doesn't, he'd still be in line for double-digit touches against one of the worst defenses in the league. He's arguably worth starting over a lot of guys that have been lineup regulars this year, including a pair of slumping mega-talents in terrible situations (see below).
Audric Estime (vs. NYJ) — 1% started
Start Over — Chris Rodriguez (vs. PHI), Tyler Allgeier (vs. ARZ), Tyjae Spears (vs. KC)
I have no real level of belief in Estime's ability, which gives him something in common with the defense he'll face this week. He and Evan Hull appear to be the last men standing with both Alvin Kamara (knee) and Devin Neal (hamstring) not practicing this week, though the Saints haven't officially ruled Kamara out. If they do, Estime and Hull figure to split playing time, as was the case after Neal's early departure last week. Estime got just one carry to Hull's three after Neal left, but Estime took 49% of the snaps and had a 3-0 advantage in targets (while producing 39 yards on three catches).
It was a surprising outcome, given that Hull is closer to the archetype of a pass-catching back while Estime checks in at 227 pounds. I'm guessing Estime takes over more of the rushing workload with a full week to prepare, which could mean 15-plus touches if the Saints (favored by 5.5) indeed take care of business against the Jets and their no-name defense. That's enough to make Estime a bottom-end RB2 or FLEX play in 12-team leagues, and Hull is also startable in deep formats or desperate situations.
- Other Good Matchups: Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (vs. ARZ), Saquon Barkley (at WAS), Michael Carter (vs. ATL), Aaron Jones & Jordan Mason (at NYG), Nick Chubb (vs. LV)
Wide Receivers 👍
DK Metcalf (at DET) — 79% started
Start Over — Zay Flowers (vs. NE), Jaylen Waddle (vs. CIN), Ladd McConkey (at DAL)
Metcalf got a season-high 12 targets in Week 14 before dropping to a season-low of three targets last week. An incredible catch-and-run TD allowed Metcalf to post a solid fantasy score despite the volume nose-dive, and his targets should now bounce back against a Detroit defense that's allowing the second-most PPR points (38.8 per game) to wide receivers. The Lions like to load the box and play man coverage more than most teams, making them vulnerable to big plays through the air even when things are going relatively well. Lately, things aren't going so well, in part because safeties Brian Branch (IR - Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee) haven't been around to support a shaky CB group. It doesn't help that backup safety Thomas Harper is in concussion protocol while cornerback Amik Robertson plays with a club on his broken hand. Metcalf should get plenty of favorable looks come Sunday, with the added benefit of playing in a dome.
Xavier Worthy (at TEN) — 44% started
Start Over — Michael Pittman (vs. SF), Khalil Shakir (at CLE), Stefon Diggs (at BAL)
Patrick Mahomes is out of the picture, but so is Rashee Rice (concussion) in all likelihood, at least for Week 16. What's left is a passing-game core of Gardner Minshew, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce, which isn't too bad, though it would've sounded better 4-5 years ago (apart from Worthy being a child). The matchup couldn't be better, with the Chiefs getting mild weather by December standards while facing arguably the worst CB group in the league.
Since Tennessee's Week 10 bye, four different No. 1 receivers have posted their season highs for PPR points when facing the Titans (Nico Collins - 24.2, JSN - 37.1, Jakobi Meyers - 21.3, Jauan Jennings - 18.7). Two other wideouts, Ricky Pearsall and Jerry Jeudy, posted their second-best scores of the year during that same stretch. Long story short, Worthy is really fast, and the Titans can't cover.
- Other Good Matchups: A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (at WAS), Chris Olave (vs. NYJ), Michael Wilson (vs. ATL), Jauan Jennings (at IND), Ladd McConkey (at DAL), Hollywood Brown (at TEN), DJ Moore & Olamide Zaccheaus (vs. GB)
Tough league-wide environment for WR scoring recently, but really like some of the matchups this week, including Olave, Metcalf, X Worthy, Jennings.
Also see some widely available guys with decent volume projections, namely Mack Hollins, but also Metchie and a few others.
— Jerry Donabedian (@FootballMammal) December 18, 2025
Tight Ends 👍
Dallas Goedert (at WAS) — 56% started
Start Over — Tyler Warren (vs. SF), Mark Andrews (vs. NE), Jake Ferguson (vs. LAC)
Goedert went a month without scoring double-digit PPR points before putting up 15.8 and 25.0 the past two weeks. He's now one TD away from doubling his previous career high, heading into a matchup with arguably the worst defense in the NFL. No team has allowed more yards per pass attempt (8.4), and only three teams have allowed more PPR points to tight ends (16.0 per game). My only concern is a possible lack of volume for the tight end if A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are repeatedly getting open with ease.
- Other Good Matchups: Kyle Pitts (at ARZ), Travis Kelce (at TEN), Darren Waller (at CIN), Oronde Gadsden (at DAL), Colston Loveland (vs. GB)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Jaxson Dart (vs. MIN) — 29% started
Start Instead — Trevor Lawrence (at DEN), Jacoby Brissett (vs. ATL), Brock Purdy (at IND)
Dart has somehow gone under-appreciated in fantasy this year, often left on benches despite scoring multiple TDs in eight of nine starts. One concern here is that seven of those starts came under Brian Daboll back in Weeks 4-10, when Dart took 24 designed carries (most among all QBs in that span), including six for TDs (four more than any other QB) and 10 inside the red zone (seven more than any other QB).
He also spent a lot of time getting checked for concussions, which explains why Dart now has just three designed carries* (and no rushing TDs) through two starts under Mike Kafka. The rookie is still scrambling plenty, but the combination of a tough matchup and lost rushing usage means his Week 16 projection falls far short of his impressive scoring average through nine starts.
*Dart got a carry from the 1-yard line last week, but it looked like a pass play gone wrong, and he briefly left to be checked for an injury after getting tackled behind the line of scrimmage.
Currently looking at Jaxson Dart's stats on designed rushes in Weeks 4-10 (under Daboll). Basically tripled the volume and production of any other QB in that span. Cam Newton scenes
— Jerry Donabedian (@FootballMammal) December 18, 2025
- Other Tough Matchups: Trevor Lawrence (at DEN), Matthew Stafford (at SEA), Sam Darnold (vs. LAR), Marcus Mariota (vs. PHI) Geno Smith (at HOU), Shedeur Sanders (vs. BUF)
Running Backs 👎
Ashton Jeanty (at HOU) — 84% started
Start Instead — Kenneth Walker (vs. LAR), Omarion Hampton (at DAL), Kenneth Gainwell (at DET)
Dump-off reception have kept Jeanty alive as a fantasy starter, but it wasn't enough the past two weeks as he recorded his fourth and fifth games of the season with single-digit PPR points. He's finished with fewer than 50 total yards six times, plagued by arguably the worst blocking and scheming in the league. Jeanty still accounts for an enormous share of the touches, but most of those are stopped for minimal/no gain, within an offense that ranks dead last in play volume (55.7 per game). The Raiders are also dead last for points and yards, while Houston's defense is the league leader in both categories*.
*I can't imagine this has happened many times in the post-merger NFL after the first few weeks of a season.
Whatever you do. DO NOT LOOK AT THE RAIDERS IMPLIED TOTAL FOR WEEK 16.
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) December 15, 2025
Breece Hall (at NO) — 79% started
Start Instead — D'Andre Swift (vs. GB), RJ Harvey (vs. JAX), Tyrone Tracy (vs. MIN), whoever starts for HOU
The Saints have been surprisingly competent on defense since a Week 9 pantsing at Los Angeles, while the Jets offense is approaching its worst form of the year after getting a temporary boost from Tyrod Taylor (groin). My first concern here is that the Jets are 5.5-point underdogs with Brady Cook under center, but I also worry about potential slippage for Hall's dominance of Gang Green's backfield workload. In Weeks 10-14, he topped 70 percent snap share in every game, including a lot of playing in catch-up mode (and even garbage time).
Last week, Hall got an earlier hook, finishing with a 54% snap share after Isaiah Davis got most of the playing time in the second half (and broke off a long TD run). Hall still has the big ceiling if he gets hot early and the game stays close, but don't expect to see him piling up catches during garbage time in the third-to-last game of his rookie contract. It makes sense for both player and team to give Davis more work down the stretch, especially if/when a game starts to get out of hand.
- Other Tough Matchups: Jaylen Warren (at DET), Chris Rodriguez & Jacory Croskey-Merritt (at PHI), Zach Charbonnet (vs. LAR), Blake Corum (at SEA)
Wide Receivers 👎
Emeka Egbuka (at CAR) — 62% started
Start Instead — Chris Godwin (at CAR), Jayden Reed (at CHI), Jakobi Meyers (at DEN)
Cornerback play is probably the strongest point of Carolina's otherwise middling defense, but my bigger concern here is volume now that the Buccaneers have gone from zero-to-sixty in terms of WR health. That'll help Egbuka's per-target production, but there's more risk of a volume crash than one might think if simply looking at the Week 15 box score (4-63-0 on seven targets). With Mike Evans back in action, Chris Godwin led the team in snap and route share (both above 90%) while Egbuka dropped to the 60s for both numbers.
That's bad enough already, and Egbuka could lose even more snaps now that Evans and Jalen McMillan (51% route share, two targets) are up to speed. For me, Egbuka is more WR4 than WR3 to close out the season, unless his playing time and/or production unexpectedly spike this weekend.
Stefon Diggs (at BAL) — 52% started
Start Instead — Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. MIN), Xavier Worthy (vs. TEN), Jauan Jennings (at IND)
This is an average matchup more so than a bad one, but Diggs is kind of on the fringe as a fantasy asset in the first place, coming off three straight games with four or fewer targets and less than six PPR points. He should fare a bit better Sunday night in Baltimore, though perhaps not much, as his slump coincides with a drop in playing time since Kayshon Boutte returned from a hamstring injury.
If you're a regular here, you know that I mistakenly thought Diggs' playing time would increase for a pivotal matchup with Buffalo last week. It didn't, with Boutte and Mack Hollins both comfortably topping Diggs' 62% route share. There's still potential for Diggs to pop off, especially in negative game script, but the floor is awfully low given his recent failure to sustain the elite efficiency that allowed him to put up WR2/3 fantasy production on route shares around 60% in the first half of the season.
- Other Tough Matchups: George Pickens (vs. LAC), Zay Flowers (vs. NE), Brian Thomas (at DEN), Tre Tucker & Jack Bech (at HOU)
Tight Ends 👎
- Juwan Johnson (vs. NYJ) — 41% started
Start Instead — Theo Johnson (vs. MIN), Colby Parkinson (at SEA), Hunter Henry (at BAL)
The Jets are obviously a favorable matchup in terms of efficiency, but less so for pass-catcher volume, facing the 11th-fewest TE targets (6.9 per game) and eighth-fewest WR targets (16.4). This matters for Johnson more than other tight ends, because his production has largely occurred in catch-up mode this season, with his playing time and target volume typically dropping when the Saints are competitive.
Johnson has exactly four targets in each of the team's four wins so far, and the three recent victories (Weeks 10, 13, 14) coincide with his three lowest snap shares of the season (50%, 53%, 61%). I could kind of live with that when Johnson's lone playing-time concern was losing work in heavy formations, but last week we also saw Foster Moreau steal a lot of the TE snaps in 11 personnel.
- Other Tough Matchups: Brock Bowers (at HOU), Jake Ferguson (vs. LAC), Dalton Kincaid (at CLE)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB C.J. Stroud (vs. LV)
QB J.J. McCarthy (at NYG)
RB Michael Carter (vs. ATL)
RB Nick Chubb (vs. LV)
RB Audric Estime (vs. NYJ)
WR Jayden Reed (at CHI)
WR Darius Slayton (vs. MIN)
TE Darren Waller (vs. CIN)
TE Oronde Gadsden (at DAL)
TE Theo Johnson (vs. MIN)
K Evan McPherson (at MIA)
D/ST Saints (vs. NYJ)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyler Shough (vs. NYJ)
QB Gardner Minshew (at TEN)
RB Chris Rodriguez (vs. PHI)
RB Emanuel Wilson (at CHI)
WR Parker Washington (at DEN)
WR Hollywood Brown (at TEN)
WR Jalen Coker (vs. TB)
TE Colby Parkinson (at SEA)
TE AJ Barner (vs. LAR)
K Eddy Pineiro (at IND)
D/ST Cowboys (vs. LAC)
For Deep Leagues (Under 10 Percent Rostered)
QB Quinn Ewers (vs. CIN)
RB Emari Demercado (vs. ATL)
RB Evan Hull (vs. NYJ)
RB Samaje Perine (at MIA)
RB Malik Davis (vs. LAC)
WR Mack Hollins (at BAL)
WR John Metchie (at NO)
WR Ryan Flournoy (vs. LAC)
WR Pat Bryant (vs. JAX)
TE Mike Gesicki (at MIA)
K Riley Patterson (vs. CIN)
K Chad Ryland (vs. ATL)
D/ST Bengals (at MIA)
