FantasyAces Football: Week 7 Picks

FantasyAces Football: Week 7 Picks

This article is part of our FantasyAces Football series.

Daily fantasy football is back in full swing, and FantasyAces is ready to continue the momentum from a huge first few weeks. Not sure how to play at Fantasy Aces? We're here to help. Each week, RotoWire will offer advice on which cheap value players to target to give you that extra edge. These players are considered tournament plays unless otherwise noted, as all are listed as salary cap saving value plays.

QUARTERBACK

Jameis Winston, $5,650 vs. WAS

While anecdotal evidence, a player always tends to go lower owned after a bye week because of recency bias. This makes Winston a solid tournament play given his matchup and price. Winston faces the Washington Redskins in Week 7. The Redskins have allowed two or more touchdown passes in three of the last four games. In addition, with Winston throwing the ball more than 30 times per game on average, he has a good chance to reach value. He has eight TDs in five games, and, given his price of just $5,650, two touchdowns would exceed value at his price.

Landry Jones, $5,300 vs. KC

With Michael Vick (hamstring) likely out and Ben Roethlisberger (knee) unlikely at this point in the week, Jones becomes the Steelers' starting quarterback. Jones will be very low owned on FantasyAces simply because he hasn't been successful in his NFL career to this point, but he does have a good matchup and a stable of weapons at his disposal. The Steelers face the Chiefs on Sunday, which allows Landry to face an opposing defense that has given up 1,700 yards and 14 touchdowns through the air in just six games this season. With Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and the rest of the Steelers' weapons, Jones is a cheap option that could pay dividends on FantasyAces.

RUNNING BACK

Dion Lewis, $4,600 vs. NYJ

Welcome back to this week's edition of the Patriots' running back guessing game. Each week it seems that either Blount or Lewis could be in play, but some seem to think it's a random guess. While no one can guess what Bill Belichick is thinking, some trends seem to show that Week 7 will be a Lewis game. The Patriots face the Jets, who have one of the better rushing defenses in the NFL. The Jets gave up only 299 rushing yards to running backs this season. The Jets defense is very similar to the Bills defense, which the Patriots have already played this season. In that game, Lewis was targeted nine times through the air and caught six passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. Last week was a LeGarrette Blount week against a bad rushing defense, so this week is shaping up to be the opposite.

WIDE RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs, $4,000 vs. DET

Diggs has played in only two games this season and enters the lineup for an injured Charles Johnson. In one of those games, Diggs caught six passes on nine targets for 87 yards against the top defense in the NFL: the Broncos. In the most recent game, Diggs caught seven of nine targets for 129 yards in a good matchup against the Chiefs. In Week 7, Diggs faces a Lions secondary that has allowed 88 catches for 1,200 yards and six touchdowns to wide receivers on just 112 targets this season. With Diggs' good target-to-catch conversion rate and his matchup against a secondary that struggles with exactly that, he makes for a top value play at just $4,000 on FantasyAces.

Golden Tate, $4,500 vs. MIN

Tate gets the benefit of a less than ideal matchup in Week 7, simply because of potential volume. With top cornerback Xavier Rhodes expected to be on Calvin Johnson, Tate is likely to see single coverage and a lot of targets. This season, the Lions have faced four cornerbacks who reportedly shadow an opponent's top wide receivers. In those games, Tate has 10, seven, 18, and nine targets. One of those games was against Minnesota, during which he saw 10 targets and caught six passes for 80 yards against the Vikings' secondary cornerback. With Rhodes on Johnson again in Week 7, expect a lot of targets for Tate. At just $4,500, his volume alone can pay for the price tag.

TIGHT END

Ben Watson, $3,900 vs. IND

In the last two weeks Watson has been one of the top values at any position, let alone tight end. In Week 5 against the Eagles, he caught a touchdown pass as well as three passes on five targets. In Week 6, Watson was targeted a whopping 12 times, catching 10 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. Before these two games, Watson's opponents were ranked among the league's best defenses in defending the tight end, so he has proven to be successful (in a small sample) in what would normally be poor matchups. In Week 7, the Saints face a Colts defense that has allowed a combined 24 catches for 283 yards and a touchdown against the only three offenses that use tight ends against them: the Titans, Jaguars and Patriots. If Marques Colston is out again, expect Drew Brees to continue to look in Watson's direction, making him a value play in tournaments at just $3,900 on FantasyAces.

DEFENSE

Carolina Panthers, $2,850 vs. PHI

The Panthers are priced as a top five defense on FantasyAces, which seems odd for a value pick. But with Aces' pricing algorithm separating the most expensive and cheapest defense by only $700, it makes sense to pay for one in a good matchup. The Panthers' defense has been excellent so far this season, but they will be lesser owned against the Eagles because of the yardage the Eagles offense has posted in the last few weeks. Fantasy points are awarded for sacks and turnovers, to which the Eagles are very susceptible. Sam Bradford has nine interceptions and has been sacked eight times in the last four games. With the Panthers forcing 11 turnovers in five games and sacking the quarterback 13 times, they make for an excellent play against an offense that is prone to turnovers.

Don't forget to keep an eye on the NFL inactive list. With the injury report changing all the time, a lot could happen before Sunday.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Josh Collacchi
Josh is a manager at Gambling.com Group and has spent over a decade in the fantasy sports, daily fantasy sports, and legal sports betting industry.
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