This article is part of our Four-Down Duel series.
50/50 or Heads Up
In 50/50 or Heads-Up contests, always aim for a lineup that has a higher floor over a higher ceiling. In 50/50 contests, the top half of all entries finish in the money, meaning you don't have to pick a high-ceiling lineup that shoots for the moon. Build these lineups with the players that are essential to winning regardless of their price.
Mark Sanchez, $7,500 – It's surprising that Sanchez ends up in this spot, but the results thus far speak the truth. He's thrown for over 300 yards with two touchdowns in each of his first two starts. The Chip Kelly offense seems to agree with Sanchez and he's averaging over 40 pass attempts per game. This week he'll be at home with a good matchup against the Titans. Expecting another performance in line with the last two weeks is reasonable, making Sanchez a nice value for a mid-priced quarterback.
Tre Mason, $5,600 – Mason has finally taken over the Rams' backfield, getting 30 touches last week against the Broncos. He has posted back-to-back weeks of 10-plus fantasy points and has a nice matchup waiting for him in San Diego. The Chargers rank 17th against the run and the sudden emergence of Kenny Britt should help keep San Diego's defense honest. At this point, there's no reason to think Mason won't get the goal line work as well.
Trent Richardson, $5,700 – The injury to Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) should open the opportunity for Richardson to get as many touches as he can handle. Richardson's value here lies in the volume and goal line work he will receive, as his efficiency numbers have been less than stellar. Still, Richardson should see plenty of action, and unlike last week, his touches will be with the Colts playing with a lead.
Jordan Matthews, $7,700 – Matthews has established a nice floor with Sanchez, recording two straight games with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. There's clearly a good rapport between Matthews and Sanchez, with nine and eight targets each of the last two games as evidence. Again, the Eagles shouldn't have any trouble putting up points against a Tennessee defense working on a short week.
Josh Gordon, $7,800 – Everyone seems hesitant about using Gordon this week and it's a little puzzling why. The leading receiver in the NFL from a season ago has no injuries (that we're aware of), he has fresh legs, and he's going against the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Falcons have given up a league-worst 8.2 yards per attempt, and Gordon is priced modestly as the 17th most expensive option at wide receiver. Don't believe any reports out of Cleveland that they'll ease him into the offense; this is a team that went from first to last in a one week – the Browns will unleash Gordon immediately.
Julio Jones, $8,000 – Like Gordon, Jones is another receiver who should be considered a top-5 player at his position, but he isn't priced that way due to his recent production. Jones has looked better over the last few weeks health-wise, and the Falcons passing game is always much better at home, which is the case this weekend. Don't be surprised if Jones ends up as the top fantasy receiver this week.
Rob Gronkowski, $7,900 – It seems like Gronk lands in this spot each week, which is appropriate as he hasn't disappointed yet. Julius Thomas (ankle) may not play and he'll be less than 100 percent if he does suit up. Jimmy Graham has a tough matchup at home against Baltimore, and he will likely see heavier coverage with Brandin Cooks (thumb) out. Over the past three weeks, Gronk has scored 15.1, 21 and 37.4 points on FanDuel, showing both the high ceiling and nice floor he provides.
Cody Parkey, $5,000 – Kickers always seem to perform better at home and in a game with a big over/under number. Parkey has been fantastic this season, and he has racked up nine, 10, 10, 15 and 12 points over his first five games this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,800 – This was the lowest-priced defense that seemed to make sense. The Bucs are coming off a solid game against Washington where they totaled 22 fantasy points. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler seems like he's due for at least one turnover a game, which makes the odds better here that something happens for the defense.
Tournaments
For tournament lineups, you have to look at upside and use some "outside-the-box" picks if you want to cash. Don't use this lineup completely, as there is a lower floor here with a lot of players. Instead, use a mix of studs with a few of the cheaper options listed below, which could net the top overall prize.
Matt Ryan, $7,600 – As mentioned earlier about Jones, this could be one of the higher scoring games of the week. Ryan has historically been much better at home, and he gets a Cleveland defense that isn't as good as advertised. The Browns should be able to put up points against the Falcons and there isn't a strong running game in Atlanta. Like everyone else in this section, Ryan will be widely under-owned in GPPs this weekend.
Shane Vereen, $6,500 – Everyone will be in love with Jonas Gray after his big performance last Sunday night, which means no one will think of using Vereen this weekend. Last week, it was a typical Belichick move on the Patriots part to expose the Colts' defense and that game plan will likely change going against one of the best run defenses in the Lions. It's easy to forget that Vereen has had fantasy games of 15.2 and 25.9 points in two of the last four weeks.
Kenny Stills, $5,900 – Stills should still be extremely under-owned this week ,even with everyone knowing Brandin Cooks is out for the season. Drew Brees has always played better at home, and the Saints quarterback has thrown touchdown passes to Stills in two of their last five games. Stills has the ability to get behind defenses and the Ravens have had a rash of injuries to their secondary.
