This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins Betting Preview and Expert Picks
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The Packers (6-8) head to South Florida for a Christmas Day matchup against the Dolphins (8-6) at Hard Rock Stadium. The Week 16 contest is vital for both teams' playoff hopes as the regular season nears its end.
The Packers hope to string together their third straight win after battering the Rams, 24-12, on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Dolphins come into this game after three straight losses, the latest a 32-29 defeat at the hands of the Bills on Saturday night in Week 15.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins for Week 16
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Packers +160 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Dolphins -180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Packers +3.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Dolphins -3.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Total: Over 49.5 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Under 50 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Dolphins opened up as four-point favorites but moved as high as 6.5 earlier in the week before stabilizing. As gameday approaches, Miami has stayed in the 3.5-to-4-point range.
While the spread has enjoyed some stability, the total has drastically changed from where it once was. Oddsmakers had the original total at 46.5 and it rose as high as 51 before stabilizing at 49.5.
Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Picks This Week
The Packers appeared to have turned a new page as they enter this game with back-to-back solid performances. After an inconsistent season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers still find themselves with a realistic shot of squeezing into the playoffs as a wild card.
While Rodgers has not put up his typical numbers, the running back tandem of AJ Dillion and Aaron Jones have done their part in the last two victories. Jones led the way during Monday's victory with 17 carries for 90 yards while tacking on four receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown through the air.
Despite the recent success on the ground, Romeo Doubs and the rest of Green Bay's receivers could be in for a larger role due to the recent struggles in Miami's secondary. The Dolphins rank 31st in the league against the pass in its last three games, allowing 292 yards per game through the air. Quarterbacks are also putting up 44 pass attempts per contest against Miami in that sample, the second most in the league during that span
Miami's offense will look to return to form after a highly inconsistent last three games. In that span, the Dolphins are averaging just 310.7 yards per game, 59.7 yards less than they have all season. The fact Tua Tagovailoa sports a 49.5 percent completion rate during that span has played a large part in their struggles.
Despite Tagovailoa's recent struggles, Raheem Mostert has stepped up, finishing with 17 carries for 136 yards during Saturday's loss to the Bills with Jeff Wilson sidelined due to a hip injury. The Packers have allowed an NFL-high 196.7 rushing yards per game in the last three, giving Mostert and Wilson, if he suits up, a good shot of dominating once again.
As far as Tagovailoa, a Packers defense that's surrendered an NFL-low 18.1 completions per game this season certainly represents a tough matchup with which to try and right the ship. However, explosive playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have proven matchup-proof before, and Green Bay has given up nearly 57 passing yards per game more on the road than at home.
Ultimately, I see the Dolphins having just enough to snap their losing streak and respond with the urgency befitting the scenario in a game where both teams put up some points.
Packers vs. Dolphins Best Bet: Dolphins moneyline and Over 48.5 points (+175 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
Dolphins 28, Packers 23
Miami's offense looked the best it has over the last three games during Saturday's loss to the Bills. With a return to the balmy South Florida climate, Hill, Waddle, and Tagovailoa must all play up to their standards for the Dolphins to salvage their season. Rodgers won't quite have the same firepower to keep pace, leading to a close Miami win.