This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday Football, Week 12
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Week 12 brings an AFC West matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) and the Las Vegas Raiders (5-6). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Odds for Sunday Week 12 Football
Chiefs: Spread -8.5 (-110), -455 Moneyline; Projected Score 25.3 points
Raiders: Spread +8.5 (-110), +360 Moneyline; Projected Score 16.8 points
Game Total: 42.5 points
This line opened at Chiefs -5.0, and reopened last week at -9.5. It bumped up to 10.0, before dropping to -8.5 after the Chiefs lost to the Eagles on Monday Night Football, 21-17. Since firing head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders beat the Giants and Jets, but lost to the Dolphins, 20-13, as 14-point road dogs. If you look at the box score, the Dolphins should have easily covered the number. So we have two somewhat empty wins and a smokescreen cover that are pushing the number down, along with the Chiefs blowing the game on Monday night.
The total opened at 45.0 and has dropped three points to 42.5 in the last few days.
Totaling bets thus far, 58 percent of the money and 49 percent of the bets are on the Raiders. There is 83 percent of the money on the Chiefs' moneyline, which is 94 percent of the bets. There is 81 percent of the money and 44 percent of the bets on the UNDER.
Key injury situations to watch
Chiefs: WR Mecole Hardman, LB Nick Bolton (OUT); RB Jerick McKinnon (Questionable)
Raiders: DE Maxx Crosby (Questionable; DNP-Wednesday, Thursday)
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Picks This Week
Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -115) for 1 unit
I have been on this prop all season here in this article and otherwise. With the limited offensive weapons, Mahomes is running more and the numbers keep coming in around the same. The interesting thing about the 24.5 rushing prop is Mahomes' lowest output besides the Vikings game has been 20 yards and he has averaged 29.6 rushing yards per game.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Bet: Chiefs -5.5 1st Half (DraftKings -115) for 0.75 unit
I am not about to lay -8.5 on the Chiefs on the road in a divisional game, especially when the majority of both teams play to the UNDER. But the Chiefs should be able to jump out to an early lead in the first half as they are second in scoring offense (17.2) and third in scoring defense (7.6).
Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Bet: Isiah Pacheco OVER 66.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -114) for 0.5 unit
With Jerick McKinnon ruled out, I would expect Pacheco to get an increased workload and not Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has been phased out of the offense since Week 4. He has hit this prop number or at least come within 0.5 over the last two games. The Raiders rank 26th in fantasy points allowed against opposing running backs.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Bet: Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 43 (FanDuel -110) for 0.75 unit
The Raiders are 5-0 on the UNDER at home this season and the Chiefs have gone UNDER in their last six, including 8-2 in their last 10.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction
Chiefs - #3 overall DVOA, #7 DVOA offense, #4 DVOA defense
Raiders - #28 overall DVOA, #29 DVOA offense, #16 DVOA defense
The Chiefs are coming off a stunning loss to the Eagles at home on Monday Night Football, and need this divisional win to keep pace at the top of the AFC playoff hunt. The Raiders played the Dolphins tough in Miami, and could be in for a similar type of game against the Chiefs on Sunday.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 16
