This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football, Week 13
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Week 13 brings an AFC matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Bengals vs. Jaguars Betting Odds for Sunday Week 13 Football
Bengals: Spread +10.0 (-112), Moneyline +380; Projected Score 15.0 points
Jaguars: Spread -10.0 (-108), Moneyline -500; Projected Score 25.0 points
Game Total: 40.0 points
This line opened Bengals -1.0 before the season started, but the Joe Burrow injury, the Bengals' horrible defense, and the Jaguars' strong play had it reopen at Jaguars -6.5, which is about the touchdown that Burrow is worth. But it has not stopped moving up on Jacksonville as each couple of days the books have been making them a 0.5 to 1.0 additional favorite. The line is now at a full -10.0 for the Jags.
The Bengals have lost three in a row while the Jaguars have won seven out of their last eight.
The total opened at 41.0 and dropped three points to 38.0 before going back up to 40.0 in the last few days, which is reflective of the line moving in favor of the Jaguars.
Totaling bets thus far, 67 percent of the money and 75 percent of the bets are on the Jaguars. There is 87 percent of the money on the Jaguars' moneyline, which is 95 percent of the bets. There is 74 percent of the money and 89 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Bengals: QB Joe Burrow (OUT-IR)
Jaguars: RB Travis Etienne (Questionable)
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Bengals vs. Jaguars Betting Picks This Week
Bengals vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Joe Mixon UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -114) for 0.75 unit
The Bengals are dead last in rushing yards per game and Mixon's rushing totals the last four games have been 37, 46, 69 and 16. The Jaguars rushing defense is one of the best in the NFL, ranking fourth in yards allowed (87.4). They have allowed four opposing running backs to go over 49.5 yards (Isiah Pacheco, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamar, and Christian McCaffrey). That is a very strong list and Mixon just has not performed near them in 2023.
Bengals vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Evan Engram OVER 41.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -114) for 1.0 unit
Engram has hit this prop in eight out of 11 games and the Bengals rank 31st in fantasy points allowed by opposing tight ends. The good thing about Engram is his floor to allow this to hit OVER, as he has had at least five targets in every game.
Bengals vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Josh Allen OVER 0.75 sacks (DraftKings -125) for 0.5 unit
Josh Allen has averaged more than 1.0 sack per game, but he gets them in bunches as he has gone OVER 0.75 sacks only five times in 11 games. But he gets a juice matchup against Bengals OL Orlando Brown, who ranks as one of the worst offensive lineman in football. I would also expect Jake Browning to have to throw a ton in this game as the Jaguars should jump out to an early lead.
Bengals vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Bengals/Jaguars UNDER 40 (FanDuel -110) for 1.0 unit
I will continue to ride the wave that is prime-time games going under the total, especially with this Bengals offense that is one of the worst in football.
Bengals vs. Jaguars Prediction
Bengals - #16 overall DVOA, #14 DVOA offense, #26 DVOA defense
Jaguars - #8 overall DVOA, #17 DVOA offense, #5 DVOA defense
This is the first time the Jaguars have been on Monday Night football in 12 years, so there is a huge narrative there. They have won seven out of their past eight and 14 out of their last 18. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (75.8) and have a backup quarterback in Jake Browning. I am seeing a lot of people saying that laying double digits for the Jags is just too many points. I do not think it is enough, as this line should be closer to -14 in my opinion.
Jaguars 27, Bengals 9