Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Steelers vs. Bengals

We're treated to an AFC North battle Monday night, as the 11-2 Steelers are 14.5-point road favorites against the 2-10-1 Bengals in a game with a 40.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Cincinnati lost each of their past five games, scoring 10 or fewer points in four, including a 36-10 loss to the Steelers in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Steelers are in a rut too, losing back-to-back games after starting the season 11-0. However, a game against the Bengals is the perfect bounce-back spot before they finish the regular season against the Colts (home) and Browns (road). Given the huge spread, there are likely to be plenty of 5:1 and 4:2 Steelers:Bengals stacks, so differentiating will either focus on attempted-unique Steelers combinations or playing for a Bengals upset (not necessarily a win but that they keep it close and can score enough fantasy points at lower prices).

QUARTERBACKS

Let's get this out of the way early: Ryan Finley ($8,000 DK, $13,500 FD) will start for the injured Brandon Allen, and he's likely to be avoided by almost everyone despite it being a one-game slate. Finlay was Joe Burrow's backup for most of the season, but when Burrow suffered his season-ending knee injury the Bengals turned to Allen, who failed to throw for more than 220 yards in any of his three starts, including twice with fewer than 155. And now we have Finlay, who failed to throw for more than 200 yards in any of his three starts last season while filling in for the injured Andy Dalton. Making matters worse, he faces a Steelers defense that's allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, including zero 300-yard passers and only one with multiple touchdowns in the last six.

On the other side is Ben Roethlisberger ($11,800 DK, $16,000 FD), who had his best game of the season against the Bengals in Week 10 when he completed 27-of-46 passes for 333 yards and four touchdowns. While it was his second-worst completion percentage of the season, no one really cares when you throw for that many yards and touchdowns. The Bengals defense has been solid, allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, with Roethlisberger's game factoring into that. Even though it's not a fantastic matchup, Roethlisberger figures to be very popular as a captain/MVP because focusing on one of his pass catchers isn't that easy since he has three or four wide receivers who could have monster games at any time. And if two of them have big games together, well, Roethlisberger likely had one too.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Should we get the Bengals out of the way early again? It's kind of disappointing because they do have talented pass catchers, but it's just really tough to get excited about any of them with Finley under center, even if the Steelers are ranked 16th against wide receivers this season. Interestingly, only six teams have allowed fewer receptions to wideouts than the Steelers but only four have allowed more touchdowns.

Tyler Boyd ($8,400 DK, $12,500 FD) and Tee Higgins ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) are the top two options for Cincinnati in terms of actual production, though A.J. Green ($5,400 DK, $9,500 FD) can't be ignored since he leads the team in air yards (1,175) and aDOT (13.4). Boyd is the most expensive of the group because he leads them in targets (106), receptions (78) and receiving yards (840), but his four receiving touchdowns are one fewer than Higgins, who is second on the team in targets (92), receptions (58) and receiving yards (778). Given the expectation that the Bengals may have to throw a lot, sure, there is a path to one of their wide receivers being good options. The difficulty is that throwing a lot and actually completing a lot of passes is very different.

With so many people likely trying to figure out how to pay up for as many Steelers as possible, there should be consideration for the Bengals receivers further down the depth chart who might have some kind of chemistry with Finley because they worked together on the second unit in practice. If that's the case, Alex Erickson ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) and Mike Thomas ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) could be of some interest even though they combined for only four targets in the past two games. However, they are very cheap and allow you to fill out the rest of your lineup with Steelers.

Tight end Drew Sample ($4,200 DK, $6,500 FD) has been a popular option recently too, but it's tough to get excited about a tight end on a near two-touchdown underdog, especially with a high-impact receiver from the favorite in his price range.

The Steelers present a different problem in that there are multiple wide receivers and a tight end who could have very strong games. Diontae Johnson ($10,200 DK, $14,500 FD) leads the team in targets (113) and receiving yards (694), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($10,400 DK, $14,000 FD) leads them in receptions (79 on 101 targets) and Chase Claypool ($8,600 DK, $11,500 FD) leads in receiving touchdowns (eight, though he also has two rushing scores). Adding to the list, James Washington ($4,400 DK, $7,500) has a touchdown in each of the past two games on 10 targets, while tight end Eric Ebron ($6,400 DK, $8,500 FD) had 11 targets in back-to-back games before only getting five last week.

Johnson and Smith-Schuster are likely to be the most popular because of their production this season, and while Claypool has the touchdowns, Washington has been chipping away at his targets recently.

Washington's lower price could make him an attractive option because he's been producing recently, and consideration for Washington likely pushes fantasy players away from Claypool. Those who look for leverage possibilities will surely have to consider Claypool given he's had plenty of big games this season and could be mostly overlooked.

Washington's 11.8 aDOT is attractive, particularly with Johnson at 7.1, Ebron at 7.0 and Smith-Schuster at 5.5, but back to the potential leverage point, Claypool is still leading the team at 12.8, giving the indication that he doesn't need as many targets as Johnson and Smith-Schuster to potentially match their receiving-yard total. Of course, a PPR setting makes the volume of catches more impactful on DraftKings, but there's still plenty of upside if he can get into the end zone.

Any of the Steelers pass catchers seem like reasonable captain/MVP choices, with Johnson and Smith-Schuster likely the more popular, though Claypool offers decent salary savings with the multiplier on DraftKings. Washington obviously provides more, though it seems unlikely he'll be popular as captain/MVP unless you're making a lot of lineups.

RUNNING BACKS

The plethora of pass-catching options helps explain why the running backs aren't that expensive. Cincinnati's Joe Mixon ($8,800 DK, $5,000 FD) is the most expensive running back on DraftKings and he's been out since Week 6 and won't play Monday. Pittsburgh's James Conner ($6,600 DK, $11,000 FD) is the most expensive active running back on the slate, though he is questionable to play because of a quad injury. Conner managed only 18 yards on 10 rushing attempts last week against Buffalo, which came after he missed two games due to injury, so it's tough to be overly optimistic. Adding to that, Conner only rushed 13 times for 36 yards against Cincinnati in Week 10, tied for the most number of carries he's had in his last four games.

Conner's struggles last week allowed Jaylen Samuels ($800 DK, $7,000 FD) to play 17 of 20 snaps in the second half, but that still only meant he ended with four carries and four targets. Benny Snell ($6,200 DK, $9,500 FD) has had a fairly minimal role of late, rushing 11 times for 19 yards in the past two games combined. Add in that the Bengals have allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, including just seven rushing touchdowns, and it's tough to see many people targeting the Steelers' backfield. Conner is surely the one who will be the most popular of the group, and from a basic standpoint he makes perfect sense as the starting running back on a team that's more than a two-touchdown favorite. He also makes for a solid play if most people are focusing on which Steelers pass catchers to get given the available leverage.

There seems to be very little reason to target the Bengals' backfield, especially because it's basically a three-man committee. Here's Jerry Donabedian's breakdown of their loss to the Cowboys last week:

Bengals

	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Samaje Perine	39%	10	2	5.3%	10	0.25	10-32-0 — 2-9-0
Trayveon Williams	38%	12	3	7.9%	9	0.23	12-49-0 — 3-14-0
Giovani Bernard	24%	3	3	7.9%	11	0.28	3-8-0 — 3-15-0

• Bernard made a seventh straight start, having played 64% or more of snaps in five of his previous six starts. Gio lost a fumble on the opening drive, so Cincinnati turned to Williams for its second series. Williams had four touches for 22 yards to help bring the Bengals deep into Dallas territory, before he coughed up a fumble that Aldon Smith returned 78 yards for a touchdown. Perine then took carries on the third drive.
• Williams played 16 of 17 snaps in the second quarter, picking up 34 yards on seven touches. But he got only three snaps after halftime, while Bernard took 15 and Perine took 14. This could be a committee (or not) over the final three weeks, if Joe Mixon (foot) continues to miss games.
• Bernard, Williams and Perine each played four of 12 snaps on third-and-medium/long. Williams saw the most snaps on first downs (41%), though barely ahead of Perine (37%) and Bernard (22%).
• Williams played all three snaps inside the 5-yard line. Each of the three was a pass play.

Giovani Bernard ($5,600 DK, $8,000 FD) is the most expensive of the group, which probably makes most people ignore him if they can get either Samaje Perine ($1,400 DK, $7,000 FD) or Trayveon Williams ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD) for much less. But also, how much are you really getting out of Perine or Williams in a game they are such heavy underdogs in? Sure, the Bengals' backfield is probably the last place most people are going to go for fantasy points, but it's also so highly unlikely to pay off.

KICKERS

A low implied total will have fantasy players considering the kickers, though we have a bit of a weird situation in that the Steelers actually have a decent 27.3 implied points, which leaves the Bengals at a very low 12.8, even lower than the Jets' implied total against the Rams as 17.5-point underdogs. Given those situations, Chris Boswell ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) seems like a reasonable target because the Steelers are expected to put up plenty of points, which is why Austin Seibert ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD) probably won't be looked at by many.

With Washington priced similarly to the kickers on both DraftKings and FanDuel, it seems likely most people will just target the upside of a player with a touchdown in each of the past two games. Cash-game players usually consider the kickers, which they should again this week, but there just seems to be enough upside plays that they shouldn't be popular in GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Steelers ($7,200 DK) are the seventh-most expensive "player" on DraftKings, which is a pretty incredible price given they basically need a touchdown to justify that price. Then again, this is one of the best defenses in the NFL, one that scored 12.0 fantasy points against Cincinnati without a touchdown in Week 10, so there will be some people who play them. A captain/MVP seems unlikely, but that won't stop some people from trying it because it allows you to pay up for better flex players. With a terrible quarterback opposing them it makes sense. 

On the other hand, no one is going to play the Bengals ($2,200), which makes them a reasonable option for those who make a ton of lineups given the high variance of the position.