This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Monday Night Football Picks And Player Props for Week 11
This should be the best Monday Night game of the year with Philadelphia traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Each team has a legitimate argument why they're the best team in their respective conference and this game should have a lot of fireworks.
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Philadelphia Eagles Money Line +128 (FanDuel)
I really think the Eagles are the better of the two teams and are better on both sides of the ball. Outside of Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes doesn't have a consistent second option to count on and the Chiefs haven't had a deep threat since Tyreek Hill. I do worry that with the game being in Kansas City the refs could play a role in the outcome but that's me wearing my tin foil hat.
DeVonta Smith Over 57.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)
I'd grab this prop sooner than later considering it's 60.5 yards on another site or has -139 juice on 57.5 yards on another. There should be an increase in Smith's season-low three targets and 32 routes run from their last game and A.J. Brown should command a lot of attention. It's possible the loss of Dallas Goedert and his almost six targets per game gets dispersed to Smith and Brown so there's the possibility of that helping as well. Smith has also scored in four of nine games this season (and two straight) so I would also recommend sprinkling something on his anytime touchdown odds (+230 FanDuel, +220 DraftKings). Parlaying his over for yardage plus an anytime touchdown works out to be +345 on DraftKings (below +300 on other sites).
Isiah Pacheco Over 2.5 Receptions -138 (FanDuel)
I found this prop as high as -179 on another site so make sure you use FanDuel for this prop. We know how stout the Philadelphia run defense is and there's no doubt the Chiefs do, too. However, the Eagles defense is allowing over five receptions per game to opposing running backs and Pacheco easily has the lion's share of touches out of the Kansas City backfield. He's caught three or more passes in five out of nine games this season and there should be some correction this week to Pacheco's season-low one target last week against the Dolphins. Look for the Chiefs to call fewer running plays and increase Pacheco's targets Monday night.
Jack Stoll Anytime Touchdown +430 (FanDuel)
As of Monday morning, FanDuel seems like the only site brave enough to post odds on the Philadelphia tight end position and even they only listed anytime touchdown odds. Albert Okwuegbunam +1200 is also listed under anytime touchdown odds although neither player has anything listed under the receiving yardage props. Stoll should be under the radar and it wouldn't surprise me if there's some fake inside of the five that leads to a wide-open touchdown for Stoll.
Weekly Special: A.J. Brown + Travis Kelce 250+ Receiving Yards +850 FanDuel
This is just a fun prop and we all know about Brown's six-game streak of at least 127 receiving yards. It's extremely a simple way (and flawed) way of looking for evidence to back this prop, but if you add up their totals from Week 6 and Week 7, they would have hit the over here. That would make it two out of the possible eight times for that to have had the chance to happen this season. For what it's worth, three receivers Sunday had at least 146 receiving yards while four more surpassed the 100-yard mark. Each of these players is elite at their position so +850 odds seems like it might have some value.
