This article is part of our Run 'N' Shoot series.
What would the first round of a fantasy draft (0.5 PPR) look like today? Probably something like this: DeMarco Murray, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Demaryius Thomas, LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, Giovani Bernard, Jimmy Graham, Calvin Johnson. (I put 13 players because, of course, everyone plays in a 13-team league.) I won't quibble with you if you want to change the order of 6-13, but I'll go to the mat with you on the first five. Murray is a stud running behind the best run-blocking line in the league. Yes, there's always injury risk with Murray, but this is the NFL, so you can say that about anyone. He's the most valuable fantasy asset in our game today. Jordy and Julio are athletic freaks and option #1 on teams with top quarterbacks and bad defenses. Jamaal Charles is back, even if Knile Davis will steal a few touches. Marshawn Lynch is a beast (pun intended), and he's now through his bye. These are the five guys I most want to go to war with from this point forward.
It might seem crazy that the first round looks so different than it did a month ago, but consider this. Entering the Monday night game, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy combined to rush 153 times for 451 yards (2.95 YPC) with two TDs. Combined. Charles is fine (now), but I just cut Peterson in Stopa10K, a league with shallow benches, and I'm a big of a believer in "upside stash" as you'll find. The Packers broke out on Sunday, yet Lacy managed just 2.9 YPC. McCoy should be okay, though I am worried about the Eagles run-blocking with all of the injuries to their line. Score one for the #ZeroRB touts in 2014.
How dominant has DeMarco Murray been so far? He has 418 yards rushing on first down, the top total in the NFL. The next-highest is Alfred Morris with 191.
Sean Payton and Bill Belichick are widely seen as two of the best coaches in the NFL, and it's perhaps no coincidence they've typically been two of the most aggressive on fourth down. So why was Belichick punting on consecutive 4th and 2s in KC territory on Monday night, the second with the Patriots trailing 14-0? And what was Payton doing punting on 4th and 2 in Dallas territory trailing 7-0? I suppose it's good they punted or their respective teams might have really gotten blown out.
Not to be outdone, Rex Ryan punted on 4th and 2 down by 7 with 3:49 left and two timeouts. The Jets never saw the ball again.
Antonio Brown was put on planet Earth to remind fantasy analysts that not all receivers who score touchdowns are big. Unlike Randall Cobb, whose touchdowns feel like are mostly a byproduct of playing with Aaron Rodgers, Brown is an elite talent.
In Week 3, when the Steelers unexpectedly blew out the Panthers in Carolina, we didn't know if the Steelers were that good or the Panthers that bad. Well, after Carolina got blown out again in Week 4 and Pittsburgh lost to the Bucs, I think we have our answer. If only there was a similar explanation for the Titans beating the Chiefs in Week 1 (as the Titans haven't won since, while the Chiefs have killed the Dolphins and Patriots and lost by 7 in Denver).
Watching Travis Kelce on the same field as Rob Gronkowski on Monday night, I found myself wondering if Kelce is the better player. Pretty crazy considering Gronkowski might be the most talented tight end in NFL history (though, admittedly, Gronk is still rounding into form after injury). For our fake game, Kelce is a half-notch below the big three (Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Gronk), but he's in the next group for sure (Martellus Bennett, Larry Donnell, Zach Ertz, Greg Olsen).
Watching the Patriots get destroyed on Monday night, I set the O/U for their 2014 win total at 9.5 on Twitter and got pushback from Andy Behrens and Chris Liss, who argued it should be lower. They might be right. Look at the Patriots remaining games - the AFC East schedule helps, but other than that it's brutal: Cincy, Den, @Indy, @SD, @GB. If Kyle Orton can be a B- quarterback, the AFC East title might get decided in Week 17 when the Patriots travel to Buffalo.
It's hard not to see the top four fantasy quarterbacks as, in some order, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. But who's fifth? Matt Stafford? Nick Foles? Philip Rivers? Russell Wilson? Put me on the Matt Ryan bandwagon. The Falcons have no defense, no running game (why doesn't Antone Smith get more touches?), and top options in the passing game. Plus, with the Panthers, Saints and Bucs all struggling on defense, that NFC South schedule doesn't look nearly as tough any more.
I keep waiting for the Cowboys defense to start sucking like everyone - literally, everyone; it was unanimous - predicted after Sean Lee got hurt. I'm still waiting.
My favorite bench stashes at running back (the most important position to stash): Lance Dunbar (Murray injury-prone, Dallas o-line is awesome), Carlos Hyde (Gore is old, I still believe in the 49ers offensive line), Andre Williams (suddenly has more upside on a good Giants offense; Rashad Jennings has never done it for a full season), Mark Ingram (Saints haven't been right without him, I think he gets the job back when he returns), James Starks (something isn't quite right with Eddie Lacy, high upside in Green Bay),
The Chargers are averaging 2.4 yards per carry, while every other NFL team is at 3.1 or higher. Getting Ryan Mathews back will help (he shouldn't be on waivers), but if San Diego just can't run-block, Philip Rivers' fantasy owners won't mind.
Watching Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night brought me back to the Chiefs days of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson.
The Bengals allow an NFL-best 56.9 QB rating; every other team is above 73. Incredibly, seven teams (TB, Jax, NO, STL, Wash, NYJ, and Oak) are over 100, capped by the Bucs at 118.4. For some perspective, Aaron Rodgers career QB rating is 105.
My top 13 fantasy receivers as of right now: Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Jeremy Maclin, Keenan Allen, Kelvin Benjamin. Even in a weird offensive game for the Eagles, Maclin had 16 targets - he belongs.
How bad is the Jets secondary? Despite a dominant front-seven that has produced an NFL-high 14 sacks, they're one of just two teams without an interception, one of seven allowing over 100 QB rating, and one of four to have allowed nine passing touchdowns.
Remember when the Rams cut Michael Sam because they had so many dominant pass rushers? They have one sack; nobody else has fewer than three.
When a team lines up to receive a kickoff as if they're expecting an onside kick, why doesn't the kicking team squib it down to the 10 or 15 instead of blasting it through the end zone? I'm not talking about an end-game situation where the onside is required. I'm talking about when it's early in the fourth quarter and the kicking team is down two scores, so the receiving team is lined up expecting an onside kick. Why give them the ball at the 20? Why not squib it? You might recover, and even if you don't, you're not going to give them field position that's much better than the 20. Even if the receiving team winds up with the ball at the 30 or 35 - when you're down 2 scores, it's worth the risk if it means a chance of getting the ball!
Quick, who's the best team in the NFC East? The NFC South? Is the former really better than the latter? I think I'll save some of that analysis for Breakfast Table later this week. See you there.
