This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Pittsburgh Steelers 
at Cincinnati Bengals 
Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Week 12
The ESPN BET promo code ROTO is available to new ESPN BET users now that the new ESPN BET sports betting app and site have finally launched. They went live on Nov. 14.
Two AFC North rivals in the midst of significantly transitional intra-season weeks, the Steelers and Bengals meet for a pivotal Week 12 clash at Paycor Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are just a game apart in the standings, and each team could be headed for stretch runs markedly different than the first 10 games of their season.
The Steelers finally made a bold move to try and fix their long-ailing offense, firing coordinator Matt Canada in a move that marked their first such in-season coaching change since the 1940s. The Bengals didn't have a choice in the big change on their squad this past week, as they lost Joe Burrow for the season with a torn wrist ligament.
With Pittsburgh fielding what it hopes is an improved attack and Cincinnati trying to keep theirs as close as possible to the standard set by Burrow, this divisional matchup holds plenty of intrigue.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds for NFL Week 12
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Steelers -122 (FanDuel Sportsbook) / Bengals +114 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Steelers -1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook) / Bengals +2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 35.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Under 35.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Needless to say, there's been some significant movement on this spread since the number was first released in the summer before Burrow suffered the calf strain that ended up limiting him early in the season. At that point, the Bengals were 4.5-point favorites, and before Burrow's injury on Thursday night in Week 11, that figure had bumped up to -5. However, that development naturally served to knock Cincinnati all the way across to modest home underdog status.
The total was already going to be on the lower side even if Burrow had been healthy, but his absence really gives the figure quite the haircut. The number went down by a full touchdown (41 to 34) at one point this week, and it's only slightly risen to 35.5 since that point. Canada's firing may have actually helped in that regard, as the public likely sees Pittsburgh's offense as having nowhere to go but up at this point.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Picks This Week
The Steelers are about to collect some empirical evidence on Kenny Pickett, the likes of which may shape what they choose to do in April's quarterback-rich draft. There's been a school of thought that Canada's unimaginative schemes were the primary cause of Pickett's sophomore slump and the underwhelming seasons for essentially every Pittsburgh pass catcher, and this game will be the first opportunity to begin either corroborating or disproving that theory.
The duo of Eddie Faulkner and Mike Sullivan will split up the play designs and play calling for the rest of the season, and the Bengals are an interesting first test. Cincinnati has allowed the third-most total yards per game (386.4) overall and has actually been at its most vulnerable at home, where the Bengals have conceded 390.4 yards per contest at a co-NFL-high 6.1 yards per play.
However, the Bengals have been far from a cakewalk for quarterbacks, allowing just a 12:12 TD:INT and collecting a respectable 26 sacks. Yet, running backs have had a far easier time. Cincinnati is giving up 138.3 rushing yards per game and an extremely elevated 1.58 yards before first contact per carry. That makes them an especially tantalizing matchup for a Steelers offensive line helping generate a solid 1.30 yards before first contact per carry and a Pittsburgh ground attack with an increasingly effective duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Cincy's Joe Mixon, along with Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, will be counted on heavily to support Jake Browning in his first start in Burrow's stead. Mixon will have a solid matchup in his own right versus a Pittsburgh defense surprisingly giving up 127.7 rushing yards per carry. However, Mixon has struggled for efficiency in essentially every matchup this season, and the Steelers have actually defended the run much better on the road (109.8 RYPG allowed).
The Bengals' run game also doesn't go much deeper than Mixon, and Browning will have to deal with an aggressive Pittsburgh defense that will likely be emboldened by facing an inexperienced quarterback. Therefore, with Pittsburgh likely to enjoy a bit more balance and the offense sure to include some new wrinkles the Bengals defense hasn't seen, I'm in the camp of a Steelers win outright as my main pick.
However, for those looking to juice up the odds a good bit, a same-game parlay that also banks on the explosive players on either side helping the Over hit is also a way to go as a higher-risk "lean" to consider.
Bengals vs. Steelers Best Bets:
The Pick: Steelers moneyline (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Lean: Same-Game Parlay- Steelers moneyline and Over 35.5 points (+219 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
Steelers 21, Bengals 17
As discussed, this game shapes up as a real puzzle from a betting perspective, but I ultimately have to side with the more aggressive defense against a first-time starter over the Bengals' home-field setting. I think both Pickett and Browning will have their moments while managing their respective modified situations, but with the former having more regular-season seasoning and a likely more effective ground attack to support him, I'll back Pittsburgh squeaking out a close win that also sees the Over just manage to hit.
