This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 6 Recap
The biggest win in Week 6 was earned by the New York Jets, who shockingly upset the then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Jets' Tony Adams picked off Jalen Hurts just inside of two minutes and the Eagles elected to allow them to score on the next play to ensure that they would have an opportunity to score a touchdown having 1:48 seconds left in the game.
After the game, the Eagles coaches stated it was the analytics that supported a 'let them score' decision. So, with a 14-12 lead, in a low-scoring physical game, with one of the best defensive front sevens in the game, the analytics said to give up an easy touchdown instead of playing tough defense and at minimum force a game-winning field goal attempt. I was on the Jets, who have one of the best if not the best defenses in the NFL, which made the Eagle's decision all the more puzzling – and I am a numbers guy too.
In Week 6 action in the NFL, home teams went 10-4 straight-up, 9-5 against-the-spread (ATS), and 11-2-1 Under for 85% winning bets. For the season, home teams have gone 46-44 SU record, 40-45-5 ATS mark for 47% winning bets, and the Under has been a big money-maker going 53-36-1 for 60%.
The Under results are an extension from last year when the Under went 112-74-2 for 60% through the first six weeks and ended the season with a 310-248-10 Under record for 56% winning bets. Notice that the win percentage decreased after Week 6 reflecting the fact that the Over bets did better but were still losing money. From Week 7 on out, the Over went 174-198-8 for 47% last season.
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NFL Week 7 Best Bet
My Best Bet this week is on the Los Angeles Rams minus 3 points as offered at DraftKings when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers at SoFi Stadium scheduled to kickoff at 4:05 PM EST and will be televised by Fox Sports.
Situational Betting Algorithms
This betting algorithm has produced an 82-48 SU record for 63% wins and an 84-39-7 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 1989 and a rock-solid 14-7 SU record for 67% wins and 15-6 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that is facing a winning record team that is coming off an upset home win over a divisional foe.
If we take a moment to drill down further into the data and add the fact that the foe pressured the opposing quarterback on 25% or fewer of the plays in their upset win, our team, the Rams, have gone 12-4 SU for 75% and 13-3 ATS for a highly profitable 81% winning bets over the past five seasons.
What About the Total?
If you like the Over in this game, then you will love this betting algorithm that has gone 54-31-1 for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet the Over in a game in which both teams saw their previous game play Under by at least three points and with the difference between the opening total line and the closing total line moving no more than three points lower and with the total between 43.5 and 47.5 points.
The NFL Trends and Angles You Need to Know
· Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 10-24 ATS following three consecutive games in which those played Under the posted total.
· Steelers are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS when traveling to the West Coast in a non-conference matchup.
· The Rams are 14-5 SU and ATS when hosting an Eastern time zone team in a non-conference matchup and priced as the favorite.
· The Rams are 27-8 SU and 23-12-4 ATS when priced as a favorite and coming off a win in which they covered the spread by 11 or more points and had between 30 and 70 penalty yards.
The Live Betting Strategy for the NFL Best Bet
There have been 472 lead changes through the first six weeks of the regular season and games in which the Chargers were one of the teams involved have seen the most with 25 lead changes. The Patriots rank last in this category having seen just seven lead changes. The Rams rank 4th-most with 20 lead changes or four lead changes per game. So, take advantage of this scoring volatility by betting 70% of your bet size preflop ($70 for the $100 bettor) and then look for the Steelers to score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. Another option is to bet 30% if the in-game line prices the Rams at pick-em during the first half of action.
