The idea here is to do a deep dive on some of the key developments from Box Score Breakdown, my weekly recap article with advanced stats, injury reports and usage metrics for every player/team. Below you'll find the most important usage trends to be aware of each week, including some that indicate changing/fluctuating depth charts or major shifts in our weekly projections.
1. RB Chuba Hubbard took 58% of snaps and 19 touches in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 59% Route Share – 124 Total Yards + TD – 19 of 40 RB Opportunities (48%)
There were signs of trouble in Rico's paradise before Week 13, namely in Week 12 when he slipped to 65% snap share and 10 touches (compared to Hubbard's seven) in a 20-9 loss at San Francisco. That came after three straight games with at least 21 touches and a 72 percent snap share in Weeks 9-11.
What we saw in Week 13 was a much bigger step back toward Chuba Hubbard, who didn't get the start but ended up taking 59% of snaps and piling up 19 touches for 143 yards and a touchdown. Dowdle finished with one more carry (and one more touch) after handling the final drive, but it essentially looked like a 50/50 split on early downs.
Hubbard's snap share was larger because he took eight of 10 snaps on 3rd-and-3+, which is work that he's often ceded even when clearly the lead back. We can't necessarily count on that sticking, especially with Dowdle being a decent pass catcher, but it does seem that this is back to being a fluid situation / hot-hand backfield rather than Dowdle clearly working ahead of Hubbard. Does that open the door for Hubbard to re-take his starting job and lead role down the stretch?
2. RB Bucky Irving took 73% of Tampa Bay's RB opportunities in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 54% Snap Share – 33% Route Share – 17-61-1 Rushing – 2-20-0 Receiving
The snap and route shares weren't great, but Irving took 17 carries in a game where Rachaad White (37% snaps, 40% routes) and Sean Tucker (14% snaps, 10% routes) got just two carries apiece. White still had his role on passing downs, but Tucker was barely involved despite his solid performances in recent weeks.
It was basically a best-case scenario for Bucky Irving's fantasy managers, considering Sunday's game marked his first appearance in two months. His usage Sunday wasn't much different from what we saw in September, and it might've resulted in 20-plus points for fantasy if his one-yard TD run hadn't been wiped out by a penalty.
In addition to Irving's long-awaited return, WR Chris Godwin made a big impact Sunday in his second game back from injury, catching three of five targets for 78 yards while handling a 63% snap share and 63% route share (about double his rates from the week before). The Buccaneers are getting healthier and won't face many tough matchups down the stretch, potentially setting up a strong finish for the offense after a prolonged mid-season swoon.
3. RB Devin Neal played 81% of snaps in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 55% Route Share – 17 of 22 RB opportunities (77%) – 69 Total Yards
With Alvin Kamara (knee) inactive, Neal stepped into a near-every-down role, ceding just 19% of snaps and five touches (all carries) to Evan Hull. It didn't lead to much production, but Neal looked pretty good and was on the field a ton in a game where the Saints mostly trailed by multiple scores before nearly tying it up at the very end.
While the raw numbers may not look great, Neal's workload shares compare favorably to Kamara's top single-game usage rates. That may say more about the Saints' remaining RBs than it does about Neal, but there's also a chance the situation persists for a few more weeks, perhaps allowing Neal to squeeze out a stretch of RB2 utility and make his case for big role next year.
4. RB Samaje Perine played 41% of snaps and took 16 touches in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 16 of 38 RB Opportunities (42%) – 54 Total Yards
Perine's return from a high-ankle sprain put an immediate end to Chase Brown's every-down role. Brown still finished with 22 touches and 113 yards, with the Bengals surprisingly piling up 80 offensive plays and holding a lead throughout the second half.
It was probably one of those situations where a huge amount of cumulative RB volume meant that the starter's percentage of the snaps/touches was lower than it would've been otherwise, but that was only a small part of the equation. Perine was in the game for long stretches, including a bunch of run plays on early downs in the first half.
Even if we don't count the final drive, Brown dropped to around 65% of snaps and 60% of the RB touches, after posting rates of 80+ percent during Perine's absence. Joe Burrow is the rising tide that lifts all boats in Cincinnati, but Brown's workload splits when Perine is healthy hint at mere RB2 fantasy status down the stretch. Had Brown maintained the Week 10-12 workload shares while also getting Burrow back, we would've been looking at RB1 value. Instead, it appears Perine may take around 30-40% of the touches, just as he did earlier this season.
5. WR Jakobi Meyers had more snaps, routes and targets than Brian Thomas in Week 13.
- Key Stats: 91% Snap Share – 93% Route Share – 6-90-1 (six targets) – 24% Target Share
Meyers accounted for six of Jacksonville's 25 targets, while Thomas got just three despite handling a 83% route share. Both likely would've played a bit less if not for the absence of Parker Washington, who suffered a hip injury in the second quarter and didn't play after halftime.
Any missed time beyond Week 13 would help both Meyers and Thomas in terms of target-share projections, but it looks like Meyers may have value (more than Thomas, in the short term?) even when Jacksonville's receiving corps is at/near full strength.
6. WR Michael Wilson got just three targets before the fourth quarter in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 93% Snap Share – 3-36-0 Receiving – 18% Target Share
The Wilson saga took two more turns during Sunday's 20-17 loss at Tampa Bay. First, he looked like an afterthought in Marvin Harrison's return from an appendectomy, drawing just three targets through three quarters despite playing 90-plus percent of snaps. Harrison had seven targets and 69 yards over the same stretch, with TE Trey McBride drawing six targets (and then adding three more in the final quarter).
Harrison played just two snaps in the fourth quarter due to a heel injury, which helped Wilson draw four targets during the frame. He didn't do much with them, and Sunday's performance doesn't help the argument for long-term value, but Wilson still needs to be taken seriously in the short run now that Harrison could miss time or be limited again.
7. WR Jameson Williams had a career-high 37% target share in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 97% Route Share – 43% Air-Yard Share – 7-144-1 (10 targets)
Fellow Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an ankle sprain in the first quarter, leaving Williams and Isaac TeSlaa (2-35-1 on two targets) in every-down roles while Tom Kennedy handled a 73% route share and four targets (4-36-0) as the No. 3 receiver. The Lions were already missing their top two TEs and WR Kalif Raymond (ankle), leaving Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs with a tremendous portion of the offensive burden once St. Brown left.
I don't think Williams can sustain target shares in the 30s, even with ARSB out, but something in the low-to-mid 20s should lead to plenty of fantasy value. We could also see the likes of TeSlaa, Kennedy or No. 3 TE Ross Dweley (60% route share, 3 targets) have a splash week in the absence of both St. Brown and LaPorta. It does sound like St. Brown will be back within a few weeks, whereas LaPorta may be out until/through the playoffs.
8. WR Adonai Mitchell has 27 targets and 457 air yards over the past three games.
- Key W13 Stats: 97% Route Share – 8-102-1 Receiving Line (12 Targets) – 182 Air Yards
Mitchell's third straight week of impressive usage finally led to a big stat line, thanks in part to Falcons CB Mike Hughes, who was lined up across from Mitchell for all but one of his receptions. Mitchell actually looked like he deserved all his volume, finally, after catching just three of 13 targets in his previous two games as a full-time player for the Jets.
John Metchie is still slightly ahead of Mitchell for cumulative fantasy production in their three-game stretch as starters together, but Mitchell has accounted for 30% of the team's targets and 61% of the air yards, compare to 21% and 14%, respectively, for Metchie. The Jets do actually have Metchie running some downfield routes, but nearly all of his targets have come on quick throws or shallow crossers. Mitchell's role likely will feature a lot of incompletion most weeks, but another big game or two along the way wouldn't surprise, especially if he actually plays well again.
9. WR Devaughn Vele has 15 targets (20% share) over the past two games.
- Key W13 Stats: 88% Route Share – 8-93-1 Receiving (8 Targets) – 93 Air Yards
Vele elevated to a full-time role Week 12 and didn't do much with it initially, but he came on strong after halftime in Week 13 with eight catches to fuel a near-comeback at Miami. The type of efficiency we saw Sunday was a one-off, but Vele does have a real chance to sustain a target share around 15-20% down the stretch, or something like 5-7 looks per game. That's enough to potentially have fantasy value even with subpar efficiency.
10. WR Pat Bryant got more routes and targets than Troy Franklin in Week 13.
- Key W13 Stats: 70% Snap Share – 76% Route Share – 3-42-0 (7 Targets, 73 Air Yards)
Bryant got the post-bye rookie bump, taking on more snaps and routes than Franklin for the first time. Franklin was still involved, handling a 52% snap share and 65% route share, but Bryant saw four more targets (7-3) and had a team-high 73 air yards. The results weren't great, but Franklin's haven't been either, with two big games accounting for a huge share of his not-that-impressive production (despite the volume being fairly steady before Week 13).
I've learned not to count on Sean Payton deploying his players the same way from one week to the next, but this did seem like a concerted effort to give Bryant more playing time at Franklin's expense for at least one week.
