NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 7 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 7 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 7 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 10 games. The Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Texans and Titans are on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Jaguars-Saints), Sunday Night Football (Dolphins-Eagles) and Monday Night Football (49ers-Vikings) participants all play outside the main slate in Week 7. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 7, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $175,000 to the top 2,252 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 10,300 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $175k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Despite the absence of numerous top producers from the main slate, there are still plenty of intriguing options to choose from in Week 7, including a RB hoping to return from injury against a vulnerable defense, an against-the-grain WR who could see heavy volume, and a star TE poised to outplay his lofty valuation in a high-scoring game.

QUARTERBACK

Geno Smith, SEA vs. ARI ($28): Smith has thrown multiple TDs only once through five games after doing so in 12 of 17 games during last year's breakout season, but he has a nice chance to get back on track with the Cardinals coming to town. Coming off his second performance north of 320 yards in 2023, Smith will be facing an Arizona team that has a minus-36 point differential in its last two road games and has allowed three of six opponents overall to top 30 points. Smith has no shortage of playmakers to throw to, and he could also get some opportunities to make plays with his legs against a Cardinals defense that's allowed three rushing TDs to QBs -- tied for most in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. LAC ($39); Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. DET ($31); Sam Howell, WAS at NYG ($26)

Against the Grainers:

Josh Allen, BUF at NE ($38); Jared Goff, DET at BAL ($27); Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS ($22)

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. WAS ($28): The Giants' offense has looked passable when Barkley plays and dreadful without him. Any hopes of turning this season around after a 1-5 start would be almost completely sunk if New York loses at home to the NFC East rival Commanders, against whom the Giants are 6-2-1 in their last nine meetings. Given that context, Barkley should get all the touches he can handle, regardless of game flow. In seven previous meetings with Washington, Barkley has racked up 634 rushing yards and 272 receiving yards for an average of 129.4 scrimmage yards per game, to go with five scrimmage TDs. The focal point of Big Blue's offense should add to that success against a Commanders defense that ranks among the 10 most generous on the ground, with 129.0 rushing yards allowed per game.

Aaron Jones, GB at DEN ($23): Jones hit the ground running with 127 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on just 11 touches in Green Bay's season opener, but he also hurt his hamstring in that game and hasn't been right since while appearing in only one subsequent game. If Green Bay's Week 6 bye finally provided the explosive running back the requisite time to heal, then the sky's the limit for Jones against a Denver defense that has allowed 890 rushing yards (most in the NFL), eight rushing TDs (second-most after idle Carolina), 321 receiving yards (second-most after Chicago) and four receiving TDs (tied for most with Arizona and Chicago) to running backs. Jones' elusiveness on the ground and fluidity as a receiver can allow him to exploit Denver's defense far better than the plodding AJ Dillon.

Honorable Mentions:

Kenneth Walker, SEA vs. ARI ($29); Brian Robinson, WAS at NYG ($21); Zach Evans, LAR vs. PIT ($10)

Against the Grainers:

Josh Jacobs, LV at CHI ($25); Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. BUF ($17); Keaontay Ingram, ARI at SEA ($13)

WIDE RECEIVER

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at BAL ($27): The Ravens have a stout secondary, but St. Brown has some against-the-grain appeal here given the heavy volume he can expect with running back David Montgomery (ribs) looking unlikely to play. Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) may join Montgomery on the sidelines, which could force Detroit into a more pass-heavy game plan against a Ravens defense that's faced 140 pass attempts to WRs -- second-most after Philadelphia's 157. St. Brown has proven to be just about matchup-proof, topping 100 receiving yards in three of five appearances this season while logging at least six receptions in 22 of his last 27 games, dating back to Week 13 of his rookie season.

DK Metcalf, SEA vs. ARI ($20): Both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett ($19) are appealing options -- especially if you're also locking in Smith at QB -- against an Arizona secondary that's allowed 1,195 yards to wide receivers, just seven yards shy of Washington's league-worst mark. Metcalf missed practice Wednesday due to rib and hip injuries while Lockett was limited by a hamstring injury, but neither receiver seems to be in danger of sitting come Sunday, especially since Wednesday DNPs have become part of Metcalf's weekly routine. Despite the nagging injuries, Metcalf leads Seattle with 337 receiving yards through five games, and his two TDs give him 37 in 71 career NFL appearances, so the 6-foot-4 WR is always a threat to get into the end zone.

Drake London, ATL at TB ($19): Atlanta's passing game hasn't looked pretty, but London has quietly displayed some of the potential that prompted the Falcons to select him eighth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, shortly before Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. London set season highs in Week 5 with nine targets and 78 receiving yards, then immediately eclipsed those marks with 125 yards on 12 targets in Week 6. He already has two TDs through six games after scoring only four in 17 games as a rookie, and Atlanta may have no choice but to air it out against a Buccaneers defense that's allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game and the seventh-fewest rushing yards.

Honorable Mentions:

Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. PIT ($34); Amari Cooper, CLE at IND ($21); Marquise Brown, ARI at SEA ($19)

Against the Grainers: 

Keenan Allen, LAC at KC ($31); Kadarius Toney, KC vs. LAC ($16); Darius Slayton, NYG vs. WAS ($12)

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAC ($32): After catching all nine of his targets for 124 yards and subsequently spending the weekend with new flame Taylor Swift, Kelce will be trouble, trouble, trouble for a Chargers defense that's allowing a league-high 289.0 passing yards per game. Other teams have done most of their damage against the Chargers with WRs, but Kansas City has gotten lackluster play from its receiving corps all season and should continue to utilize Kelce as the team's top option through the air. This game is expected to feature some offensive fireworks, with a slate-high over/under of 48.0 points, and Kelce racked up 115 yards and three TDs the last time these AFC West rivals met in Week 11 of last season.

Honorable Mentions:

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. DET ($23); Pat Freiermuth, PIT at LAR ($16); Darren Waller, NYG vs. WAS ($15)

Against the Grainers: 

Sam LaPorta, DET at BAL ($19); Kyle Pitts, ATL at TB ($16); Michael Mayer, LV at CHI ($12)

DEFENSE

Cleveland Browns at IND ($14): Cleveland's defense has been phenomenal, allowing by far the fewest scrimmage yards per game (200.4), as well as just 15.4 PPG (fifth-fewest). Fresh off handing Brock Purdy his first career regular-season loss, this unit should keep rolling against Gardner Minshew, who's set to start under center for the Colts the rest of the way with Anthony Richardson scheduled to get season-ending shoulder surgery. Cleveland's Myles Garrett-led pass rush has produced multiple sacks in every game this season, and at least three in each of the last three games, while the Colts have scored more than 23 points only once this season.

Honorable Mentions:

Buffalo Bills at NE ($23); Washington Commanders at NYG ($14); Los Angeles Rams vs. PIT ($11)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Giants vs. WAS ($12); Denver Broncos vs. GB ($12); Chicago Bears vs. LV ($11)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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