NFL Game Previews: Conference Championship Matchups

SUNDAY

Washington (+6) at Philadelphia, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 3 p.m. EST

And we officially have a Cinderella. The Commanders' win over the Lions last week was as much about Detroit's injuries and what they did wrong, but Washington still had to do an awful lot right to be in position to take advantage. Jayden Daniels' has already had a rookie season for the ages, but his playoff numbers — 69.7 percent completion rate, 8.6 YPA, 4:0 TD:INT — would be excellent for a 10-year veteran. The kid has the best postseason QB rating (116.2) of the four signal-callers still standing, and the emergence of Dyami Brown as a second downfield threat alongside Terry McLaurin has forced defenses to make some difficult decisions. Brown's got an 11-187-1 line on 13 targets against the Bucs and Lions, while McLaurin's racked up an 11-176-2 line on 16 targets. The big development last week was the fact that Dan Quinn's defense actually played like a Dan Quinn defense. Five takeaways wasn't just a season high for the Commanders, it was more than any three-game stretch during the regular season. Quinn's units in Dallas were ball-hawking machines, and while his current roster doesn't have the same base of talent — there's no Micah Parsons or Trevon Diggs here — veterans like Jeremy Chinn and Bobby Wagner still have some juice, and 2024 second-round pick Mike Sainristil nabbed two of those INTs in the divisional round. If the Commanders' defense is gelling at the right time, you can make a legit argument that they are the most balanced team left, even if they don't have the resume to back up that claim.

If there was any confusion over the what the Eagles' game plan was, last week they became the first playoff team in the modern era with multiple rushing touchdowns of 40 yards or more when Saquon Barkley busted out a 62-yard score late in the first quarter, following a 44-yard Jalen Hurts TD dash. Just to really drive the point home, Barkley then added a 78-yard touchdown in the fourth. It's been a long time since anyone had a ground game this dominant, or perhaps the better way to phrase it would be, it's been a while since a top offense was this run-dominant. (Those classic Greg Roman Raven units generally had more rushing yards than passing yards but still had more passing TDs than rushing TDs, for instance.) OC Kellen Moore deserves a fair amount of credit for the way he's schemed to his talent, and there may be no bigger indictment of the way Jerry Jones is running the Cowboys into the ground than the fact that Dallas' former OC and DC from just two years ago are meeting in the NFC championship with other organizations. Moore's job gets tougher here, though, as Hurts came out of the win over the Rams with a balky knee after he got folded up on a sack. His mobility seemed impaired the rest of the game, and while the odds of him not playing Sunday are very low, if he isn't able to scramble — or, even worse, take part in Brotherly Shoves — it removes a crucial element from Philly's offense. Hurts is certainly capable of winning games with his arm, but it's been a couple months since he actually did, as he's thrown for less than 200 yards in six of his last seven appearances, and the one exception was a Week 15 loss to the Steelers. These two NFC East rivals split the season series, but the Eagles' loss came in Week 16, when Hurts played only 12 snaps before exiting due to a concussion. On the one hand, Philly won the meeting in which Hurts was healthy, 26-18 in Week 11. On the other hand, Hurts might come into this one at less than 100 percent healthy ...

Key Info

WAS injuries: WR Olamide Zaccheaus (questionable, hip), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, ribs), LB Bobby Wagner (questionable, ankle)
PHI injuries: QB Jalen Hurts (questionable, knee), WR A.J. Brown (questionable, knee), TE Dallas Goedert (questionable, ankle), EDGE Josh Sweat (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: Austin Ekeler, Dyami Brown, Zach Ertz
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Brian Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Ekeler adds 50. Daniels throws for 320 yards and runs for 60 more, tossing two TDs to McLaurin (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jamison Crowder. Barkley thunders for 150 yards and two scores. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and two touchdowns, finding Brown and Goedert. Eagles 34-31

Buffalo (+2) at Kansas City, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST

The Bills rode Josh Allen's legs to a win over the Ravens last week, as the battle of MVP candidates with Lamar Jackson lived up to its billing. Allen's been clutch down the stretch, producing multiple touchdowns in three consecutive full games (four passing, three rushing in total) without committing a turnover. In fact, he has only one giveaway, a Week 16 pick against the Pats, over his last seven full games with 21 totals TDs (12 passing, nine rushing). The Bills have lost twice during that stretch — that 44-42 barn-burner against the Rams when the defense no-showed, and Week 18 against New England when the starters were rested — but for the most part they've looked like a juggernaut, with their average margin of victory being about two touchdowns since their Week 12 bye. Allen's gotten some help this postseason, as James Cook has 202 scrimmage yards and a TD in two games while Khalil Shakir has a 12-128-0 line on 13 targets, but for the most part, Buffalo's offense is a one-man show. The Bills will also have a bit extra confidence after winning the regular-season meeting between these teams, a 30-21 victory in Week 11, but that was the regular season. Under Allen and Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 0-3 against Kansas City in the playoffs.

Kansas City continues to do exactly as much as it needs to do to win, and not a speck more. The Texans moved the ball better last week, winning the yardage battle 336-212, but Patrick Mahomes capitalized on his red-zone chances and C.J. Stroud didn't, and that was that. Mahomes hasn't committed a turnover since the loss to Buffalo, posting a 12:0 TD:INT in his last seven games, and while I wouldn't say he's become a bus driver, his role in Andy Reid's game plan is essentially an elevated version of that. The two-time defending champs don't make mistakes on offense and rely on their defense to force a few, and DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit has been more than holding up its end of that bargin. The last four games in which Kansas City has played its starters, the defense has 20 sacks and 10 takeaways. The question is what happens when the defense can't hand extra possessions and short fields to Mahomes? The Bills committed the fewest turnovers and gave up the fewest sacks in the league during the regular season.

Key Info

BUF injuries: LB Matt Milano (questionable, hamstring), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, hip)
KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Hollywood Brown

BUF DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Kansas City DST

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Cook gains 90s yards and a TD. Allen throws for 270 yards and runs for 50, tossing touchdowns to Shakir and Dawson Knox while running one in himself. Kareem Hunt leads the KC backfield with 60 yards. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and a score to Brown, but four Harrison Butker field goals aren't enough. Bills 31-19

Last week's record: 3-1, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 o/u
2024 playoff record: 6-4, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 o/u
2024 regular-season record:183-89, 141-28-3 ATS, 144-126-2 o/u