NFL Game Previews: Week 1 Matchups, Picks & Fantasy Tips

EARLY SUNDAY

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+2.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Buccaneers roll into 2025 having won four consecutive NFC South titles, the third-longest active streak in the NFL behind Kansas City and Buffalo. Unlike those AFC powerhouses, though, Tampa Bay's done it with different head coaches (Bruce Arians started the streak), different QBs, different strengths ... really, the only constants during that stretch of success on the offensive side of the ball have been the wideout duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwi, and an offensive line anchored by Tristan Wirfs. Two of those guys probably won't be in the lineup Sunday, but the team always seems to muddle by regardless of how things change. Todd Bowles' defense, with Lavonte David at the center of it, has been the real foundation of the Bucs' run. At some point the 35-year-old linebacker is going to reach the end of the line on what could be a Hall of Fame career — he's top 10 all-time in tackles and will finish the year in eighth if he racks up triple digits again, at which point four of the seven guys ahead of him have gold jackets, with Bobby Wagner (who's about to pass Junior Seau for third place) still active as well. The loss of OC Liam Coen to the Jaguars could hurt — the team will be on its fourth OC in five years — but Josh Grizzard was promoted from within to take the job, and rookie WR Emeka Egbuka will inject some youth into the passing game and begin the transition to life without Evans and Godwin.

During that same four-season stretch, the Falcons have been the picture of mediocrity. Three straight seven-win campaigns gave way to a jump all the way to eight wins in Raheem Morris' first year in charge. The turnover's been even more chaotic — Atlanta's had five starting QBs in the last three seasons, since Matt Ryan left after the 2021 campaign — but the pieces seem to be in place on offense to build something interesting, with Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson and Drake London forming a very intriguing set of triplets, all taken with the eighth overall pick in three consecutive drafts. Penix still has a lot to prove, though, after being thrust into the starting role late last season, while Morris' defense is still trying to find the right pieces. A pass-rush heavy 2025 draft could eventually solve the Falcons' biggest weakness, but expecting Jalon Walker and James Pearce to immediately improve the fortunes of a unit that's finished in the bottom two in sacks three of the last four years, and hasn't even finished in the top half of the league since 2017 (a heady 14th, and they did that well only because of a ridiculous six-sack game from Adrian Clayborn) is probably asking too much. That 2017 season was also the last time Atlanta made the playoffs or even finished above .500, and if the team's going to break that streak, it'll probably be on the offense's shoulders.

Key Info

TB injury report: WR Chris Godwin (doubtful, ankle), WR Jalen McMillan (IR, neck), LT Tristan Wirfs (questionable, knee)
ATL injury report: WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, shoulder), RT Kaleb McGary (IR, knee)

STRONG lean: QB Baker Mayfield (ATL 27th in passing DVOA, 29th in QB rating against in 2024)
Slight lean: TE Kyle Pitts (TB 27th in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)

Slight fade: WR Emeka Egbuka (ATL second in yards/game allowed to WR2 in 2024) 
Slight fade: WR Darnell Mooney (TB sixth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)

NFL weather report: indoors

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 TB, average score 29-25 TB, average margin of victory nine points. ATL has won four of the last five meetings, including a 2024 sweep, but the last four games have been decided by a single score.

The Scoop: Bucky Irving pops for 130 scrimmage yards and two scores. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Evans (who tops 100 yards) and Sterling Shepard. Robinson responds with 100 combined yards and two TDs, one running and one receiving. Penix throws for 210 yards and a second score to London but gets picked off twice. Buccaneers 34-21

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+5.5), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Bengals' futility to begin the regular season is just about a meme at this point. Under Zac Taylor, the team is 1-11 in the first two weeks, and they needed overtime at home against the Steelers in the 2022 opener to pull out that one victory. Cincy gave its starters some preseason run this year to try to solve the issue, but you're completely justified in eyeing the projected score below with an entire shaker of salt. Still, this is a team with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and 2024 breakout Chase Brown on offense, and which found a way to keep Trey Hendrickson in the fold on defense for one more year. New DC Al Golden was promoted from within, so there may not be a lot of big changes from the scheme that sputtered out under Lou Anarumo, but first-round Shemar Stewart should give Hendrickson some help off the edge, and the two can bond over their respective contract disputes with the front office. The defense just needs to hold the opposition to one point less than what Burrow cranks out anyway.

Joe Flacco isn't quite as old as the rest of the Browns' healthy QBs put together, but the fact that it's close tells you everything you need to know about this mismatched roster, while they wait for the chance to get out from under Deshaun Watson's albatross contract. Having Flacco under center should raise the floor on the passing game after Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe combined for a 59.8 percent completion rate, 19:23 TD:INT and 5.9 YPA last year, but the 40-year-old isn't going to give the offense much of a ceiling. The backfield is also in flux after Nick Chubb's latest comeback from what probably would have been a career-ending injury for anyone else didn't quite take. Jerome Ford tops the depth chart for now, but he didn't look up to the task of starting when given a chance in 2024. Second-round pick Quinshon Judkins was supposed to be the heir apparent, but off-field issues and the possibility of a league suspension have left him unsigned on the eve of Week 1. That makes fourth-round pick Dylan Sampson the new savior, but he was really drafted to be a change-of-pace complement to Judkins, offering big-play potential in the open field but lacking a refined three-down skill set. DC Jim Schwartz's defense, led by Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, allowed the fewest yards in the NFL as recently as 2023, and second-round pick Carson Schwesinger will hopefully stay healthier than prior top dog LBs like Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. The Browns are almost the complete inverse of the Bengals, and the defense will need to be stingy enough to keep Flacco and the offense within striking distance to pull out a surprise or two.

Key Info

CIN injury report: no significant injuries
CLE injury report: QB Deshaun Watson (PUP, Achilles), DE Myles Garrett (questionable, hip), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP, neck), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, shoulder)

STRONG lean: WR Ja'Marr Chase (CLE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
Slight lean: RB Dylan Sampson (CIN 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2024)

STRONG fade: WR Cedric Tillman (CIN second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
Slight fade: TE Mike Gesicki (CLE sixth in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)

NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 CLE, average score 23-21 CLE, average margin of victory 13 points. CIN has won the last three meetings by an average score of 25-11

The Scoop: Brown picks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Burrow erupts for 310 yards and four TDs, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Jermaine Burton and Samaje Perine. Ford grinds out 50 yards and a score, while Sampson adds 50 combined yards. Flacco throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to David Njoku. Bengals 38-14

Miami (+1) at Indianapolis, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Things are bleak enough in Miami that a 2025 sixth-round pick is the guy providing any kind of hope for the fans. The offseason seemed like a non-stop parade of stories about how bad the locker room was, with Jalen Ramsey the latest veteran to jump ship, and Mike McDaniel's nerd-bro schtick may be wearing thin. There's still plenty of talent on offense, but Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill all come with injury concerns, and bringing tight end Darren Waller out of retirement isn't exactly going to provide stability. That's opened the door for rookie Ollie Gordon to open eyes in camp, but even if he gets a chance at a significant role, I'm not sure he's anything more than the second coming of D'Onta Foreman at best — a back with a surprisingly well-rounded skill set, but who tends to play smaller than his size. DC Anthony Weaver got the most out of a flawed roster last year, and there's the makings of a good pass rush led by second-year player Chop Robinson, but for the most part the defense is made up of veteran retreads who might be better suited for limited rotational roles than starting gigs. I'm not sure any team in the NFL had a wider range of plausible outcomes this season than Miami. The team could stay mostly healthy, score points in bunches and make the playoffs, or it could all come apart at the seams and McDaniel could be fired midseason.

The Colts haven't officially pulled the plug on the Anthony Richardson experiment, but they seem close, and handing a starting job to Daniel Jones is an act of pure desperation. We aren't even sure yet if the Minnesota version of Sam Darnold will stick, but Indy thinks a few weeks on the practice squad for Kevin O'Connell fixed Jones' issues? Good luck with that. To some extent it doesn't matter, as the offense should flow through Jonathan Taylor anyway, but the team's WR group should benefit from more accurate passing. (It's a testament to how scattershot Richardson has been as a pro that Jones, who ranked 26th last year in completion rate with the Giants, is a big upgrade in accuracy.) Ex-Bengal DC Lou Anarumo takes over a defense that remade its secondary in the offseason while still boasting DeForest Buckner, Laiatu Latu and Zaire Franklin up front, and a unit that hasn't finished higher than 24th in points per game allowed over the last three seasons could be in line for a big jump up to at least being average. If there's a theme to the Colts' offseason, it was that — plus the weak spots and raise the floor, and then give the stars a better chance to shine. The team hasn't won an AFC South title since Andrew Luck was under center, but I won't rule it out, even though both the Jags and Texans should be better too.

Key Info

MIA injury report: RB De'Von Achane (questionable, calf), RB Jaylen Wright (doubtful, knee), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, oblique), TE Darren Waller (questionable, hip), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), S Ashtyn Davis (questionable, calf)

IND injury report: no significant injuries

Slight lean: TE Julian Hill (IND 29th in DVOA vs. TE, t-29th in TDs allowed to TEs in 2024)
Slight lean: TE Tyler Warren (MIA 28th in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)

STRONG fade: WR Jaylen Waddle (IND third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
Slight fade: QB Daniel Jones (MIA t-sixth in TD passes allowed, ninth in passing yards allowed in 2024)

NFL weather report: indoors

The Scoop: Achane is held to 60 scrimmage yards. Tagovailoa throws for 250 yards and three scores, finding both Hills (Tyreek and Julian) as well as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Taylor rumbles for 120 yards and a TD. Jones throws his traditional brain-cramp INT along with 210 yards, but he does connect with Warren for a touchdown and gets his team in FG position often enough to steal a win. Colts 26-24

Carolina (+3.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Panthers should be better in 2025. The question is whether they'll be enough better to make much of a difference. There are reasons to believe Bryce Young is ready to break out, but he still hasn't proven that he can overcome his tiny 5-foot-10 frame and thrive in the NFL. "Kyler Murray without the running threat" doesn't exactly add up to a franchise QB. Adding Tetairoa McMillan gives the offense a potential No. 1 receiver, but swapping Adam Thielen out for Hunter Renfrow in the designated veteran spot doesn't seem like an upgrade, and 2024 could easily end up being the high-water mark for Chuba Hubbard's career. Three-fifths of the starting offensive line will come into Week 1 at less than 100 percent too, which isn't ideal. Getting Derrick Brown back will provide DC Ejiro Evero's unit with a massive boost, but it likely needs multiple massive boosts after a historically bad 2024 just to get to adequate.

Conspiracy theorists who believe the NFL is scripted always focus on things like blown calls in the Super Bowl, but they miss the true evidence on the margins. In April, the Panthers drafted Travis Etienne's little brother Trevor in the fourth round. Just a few weeks later, the league releases its full schedule, and the Etienne brothers find themselves on opposite sidelines in Week 1. Coincidence? I think not. Offseason buzz said the elder Etienne was set to lose his starting job after a brutal 2024 campaign, with 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby and 2025 fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten pushing for increased roles. The problem with that theory is that new head coach Liam Coen demonstrated last season in Tampa Bay that he prefers having one lead back rather than using any sort of committee, and in terms of skill set, Etienne is a lot more like Bucky Irving than his competition. Coen's biggest impact is expected to come in the passing game though, and after leading Baker Mayfield to a career-best performance, Jacksonville's hoping he can work the same magic with another disappointing first overall pick in Trevor Lawrence. All that would normally be enough for one team's offseason, but I arguably buried the lede — by trading up to grab Travis Hunter in the draft and then announcing he'll be used as a true two-way player, the Jaguars will attempt something no one's seen in the NFL in decades. Hunter's primary usage out of the gate will come as a wideout, but the team's secondary is shaky enough that if he looks competent when used as a cornerback, his duties could grow quickly. How many snaps can the kid handle? When will he get a chance to rest? Is he more likely to get hurt with this sort of usage? Can he make impact plays on both sides of the ball? It's all completely uncharted territory.

Key Info

CAR injury report: WR Jalen Coker (questionable, quadriceps), LT Ikem Ekwonu (doubtful, appendix), LG Damien Lewis (questionable, shoulder), RG Robert Hunt (questionable, foot)

JAC injury report: no significant injuries

STRONG lean: QB Bryce Young (JAC 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in QB rating against, 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2024)
STRONG lean: WR Xavier Legette (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
STRONG lean: TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (JAX 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)

STRONG lean: QB Trevor Lawrence (CAR 31st in passing DVOA, 32nd in QB rating against, 32nd in passing TDs allowed in 2024)
STRONG lean: RB Travis Etienne (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to RBs in 2024)
STRONG lean: TE Brenton Strange (CAR 31st in DVOA vs. TE, 32nd in TDs allowed to TEs in 2024)

STRONG fade: WR Hunter Renfrow (Jourdan Lewis ranked 1st from PFF with an 87.4 slot coverage grade in 2024)
Slight fade: WR Dyami Brown (CAR sixth in receiving yards/game allowed to WR3 in 2024)

NFL weather report: 9-10 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hubbard collects 80 yards and a TD. Young throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting McMillan and Legette. Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 110 combined yards and a score, while Bigsby chips in 40 yards and a late TD. Lawrence throws for 260 yards and two scores, finding Strange and Brian Thomas, while Hunter makes his first of what figure to be many highlight-reel plays with a pick-six. Jaguars 35-24

Las Vegas (+2.5) at New England, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Josh McDaniels Bowl is getting increasingly incestuous and nostalgia-ridden. Tom Brady's now got his fingers in the Raiders pie, while Vegas brought in Pete Carroll — who lost to McDaniels' Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX — as its new head coach. Carroll in turn brought in Chip Kelly, who hasn't coached an NFL game since 2016, to be his OC, and then traded for Geno Smith, his last starting QB in Seattle, to helm the offense. I'm not sure how effective cutting-edge 2010s schemes are going to be in 2025, but the franchise can't be worse off than they were last year under Antonio Pierce. Carroll and Kelly figure to deploy a very run-heavy game plan, and adding Ashton Jeanty with the sixth overall pick gives them a bell cow to ride. Smith doesn't have much in the way of targets outside of Brock Bowers, though. Jakobi Meyers is solid but miscast as a WR1, and Amari Cooper lasted less than two weeks in the organization before deciding he wanted no part of whatever was going on and retiring. (As omens go on the eve of a season beginning, that's a pretty bad one.) The defense is what it is, but picking up veterans Germaine Pratt and Jeremy Chinn should raise the floor a bit for the unit. The Raiders should be better than last year's 4-13 record, but they still seem like the runt of the AFC West litter.

The Pats did their own version of trying to chase past glory this offseason, replacing Jerod Mayo as head coach with Mike Vrabel, because clearly the only coaches available are ex-New England players. Wes Welker might want to keep polishing his resume in case Vrabel falls on his face. Drake Maye did nothing as a rookie to dispel the notion that he's a future franchise QB, but there will likely still be more growing pains ahead before he truly blossoms. Preseason darling TreVeyon Henderson joins him in the backfield to provide the lightning to Rhamondre Stevenson's thunder, while the team hopes to have better luck with Stefon Diggs as its veteran WR1 addition than the Raiders did with Cooper. Unless Henderson is the next Alvin Kamara –—which, granted, is entirely possible — this still looks like a low-ceiling offense, but Vrabel would prefer to grind out wins with his defense anyway. Harold Landry followed the coach from Tennessee and will provide the pass rush with a jolt, while ex-Raider (naturally) Robert Spillane will captain the middle of Vrabel's defense. The revenge-game motives are mostly on the New England side of this tilt, but if Carroll calls a goal-line slant just to try to prove a point from 11 years ago, it wouldn't shock me.

Key Info

LV injury report: no significant injuries
NE injury report: CB Christian Gonzalez (questionable, hamstring)

STRONG lean: RB Ashton Jeanty (NE 28th in rushing DVOA, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2024)
Slight lean: WR DeMario Douglas (LV 28th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)

Slight fade: WR Dont'e Thornton (NE sixth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2024)
Slight fade: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (NE 32nd in offensive rushing DVOA in 2024)

NFL weather report: 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jeanty begins his career with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Bowers. Henderson leads the NE backfield with 70 scrimmage yards. Maye throws for 200 yards, hitting Douglas for one TD and running in another. Patriots 20-17

Arizona at New Orleans (+6.5), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After doubling their win total in their second season under Jonathan Gannon, the Cards had a pretty chill offseason. They did sign Josh Sweat and bring back Calais Campbell for a swan song to help up front while also devoting most of their draft capital to the defense, but it'll be a while before first-round pick Walter Nolen can start collapsing pockets. The youth movement is already underway on the offensive side, though. Tight end Trey McBride is coming off a breakout 2024, and while Marvin Harrison had plenty of rookie struggles, big, physical receivers often don't start coming into their own until Year 2. In the backfield, even James Conner acknowledges that he's going to have to cede some touches to Trey Benson. The success of the unit hinges on Kyler Murray staying healthy of course, but Arizona feels like a team ready to jump into contention, even if I remain inherently skeptical of Nick Siranni's entire coaching tree.

It's been a long time since New Orleans had trouble shaking that Aints nickname, but those bad days could be coming again. Derek Carr's retirement left the team scrambling for a quarterback, and their first stab at finding a replacement led them to overage college success story Tyler Shough, who as a rookie will be three years older than C.J. Stroud. I'm not saying Shough is the next Brandon Weeden, but he's probably the next Brandon Weeden, and not being able to beat out Spencer Rattler for the Week 1 starting gig doesn't really sell me on his upside. Ryan Ramczyk and Tyrann Mathieu also both retired, leaving huge holes on both sides of the ball, and while the offense still has Alvin Kamara to lean on, he's 30 years old and has more than 2,000 career touches. Chris Olave could be one more concussion away from hanging up his cleats as well. There's still just enough talent on the roster to catch opponents unawares if everyone's healthy, but with no reliable QB and an unproven head coach in Kellen Moore — who, in one of the weirder coaching arrangements in the league, brought in his former boss Brandon Staley to be his DC —this could be a very difficult season in the Big Easy.

Key Info

ARI injury report: DT Walter Nolen (PUP, calf), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (NFI, knee)
NO injury report: "TE" Taysom Hill (PUP, knee), LG Trevor Penning (questionable, toe), EDGE Chase Young (questionable, calf), CB Alontae Taylor (questionable, groin)

STRONG lean: TE Trey McBride (NO 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)
Slight lean: WR Brandin Cooks (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2024)

STRONG fade: WR Marvin Harrison (NO first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
Slight fade: TE Juwan Johnson (ARI fourth in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)

NFL weather report: indoors

The Scoop: Conner piles up 100 yards and a TD, while Benson adds a score. Murray throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to McBride. Kamara finds his way to 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Rattler throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does salvage his line with a touchdown to Olave. Cardinals 27-17

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets (+2.5), o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Wait, forget about the Josh McDaniels thing. THIS is the ultimate revenge game in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the first time as a Steeler and face the team he couldn't make it work with the last two years despite being allowed to pick his own receivers and offensive coordinator, while the Jets will have Justin Fields — the guy Pittsburgh let get away when they decided to stick with Russell Wilson down the stretch last season — under center. Rodgers is now 41, but he still posted respectable numbers in 2024 for Gang Green, falling just short of 4,000 yards while tossing 27 TDs, tied for seventh in the league. The Steelers actually traded for a wide receiver too, bringing in DK Metcalf to be the team's top target as an upgrade on George Pickens, who was shipped to Dallas. (They also went out and got OC Arthur Smith's mascot, Jonnu Smith, though I found it hilarious all offseason to see certain reporters thoughtlessly repeat things like "Arthur Smith gets the most out of Jonnu!" when Jonnu just had what was by far his most productive season in Miami, with Arthur Smith nowhere in sight.) Kaleb Johnson, who I'm still waiting to be impressed by, was added to the backfield in case Jaylen Warren can't handle a bigger workload, and second-year wideout Roman Wilson could take a step forward now that he's healthy, but in general this seems like a high-floor, low-ceiling offense. That fits Mike Tomlin's philosophy, and indeed the Steelers' organizational philosophy going back decades, but it will rely on a talented but aging defense to stay stout. T.J. Watt is 30, Cameron Heyward is 36, and new additions to the secondary Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay are both in their 30s. Tomlin has gone 18 seasons without a losing record, and the franchise hasn't finished below .500 since 2003, but I dunno. This roster just feels held together by duct tape and Terrible towels.

Rodgers wasn't the only person the Jets sent packing after last season. The coaching staff got cleared out too, and the team reached over to Dan Campbell's staff in Detroit to bring in new head coach Aaron Glenn and OC Tanner Engstrand, with veteran coach Steve Wilks handling DC duties. There are worse organizations to try to emulate than the Lions — as someone whose favorite player back in the day was Barry Sanders, I am well aware of how weird that sentence sounds. Fields is the key to the season, and while he still looks like a dangerous runner who occasional chucks the ball up too often, rather than a well-rounded QB, he did show some real skill growth last year in Pittsburgh. His 65.8 percent completion rate was a career high, and he committed only two turnovers (one INT, one lost fumble) in six starts, though the latter number was fairly lucky considering he put the ball on the carpet six times. Being reunited with his Ohio State buddy Garrett Wilson can't hurt from a chemistry perspective either. The offense likely will flow through the backfield, though — this is a scheme off the Detroit assembly line, after all — and noise in camp was that Breece Hall may find himself falling into a timeshare with Braelon Allen. The defense is still anchored by Sauce Gardner and the Williams brothers, while Will McDonald had a breakout campaign off the edge in 2024. The Jets haven't had a winning season since 2015, topping out at seven wins since, and the organization's general dysfunction makes them a distorted mirror image of the Steelers. Still, in terms of vibes at least, I like what's coming out of New York (New Jersey ... whatever) a little more than what's coming out of Pittsburgh. Feel free to laugh at me in the comments about that in next week's piece.

Key Info

PIT injury report: DT Derrick Harmon (out, knee)
NYJ injury report: RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (out, triceps)

Slight lean: WR Calvin Austin (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2024)
Slight lean: TE Mason Taylor (PIT 20th in DVOA vs. TE, t-29th in receptions allowed to TE in 2024)

Slight fade: WR Roman Wilson (NYJ fourth in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
STRONG fade: WR Garrett Wilson (PIT third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)

NFL weather report: 10-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Warren leads the PIT backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers throws for 210 yards. Hall puts together 90 yards, but Allen vultures a goal-line score. Fields throws for 240 yards and a TD to Taylor while running in a touchdown of his own. Jets 27-13

N.Y. Giants (+6) at Washington, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Speaking of dysfunctional organizations playing in the greater New York City metropolitan area, how does Brian Daboll still have a job? I don't get it. The Giants' win totals have gone from nine to six to three under his watch, but somehow he keeps getting chances to prove the ongoing train wreck isn't his fault. (Or, apparently, the fault of GM Joe Schoen either.) After finally admitting Daniel Jones was a mistake, the team will now turn to Russell Wilson to stabilize the QB position, with 2025 25th overall pick Jaxson Dart waiting in the wings, and Jameis Winston also hanging around for some reason. Wilson is more experienced, sure, but the Broncos couldn't wait to get rid of him two years ago, and the Steelers' attempts to keep him this offseason basically amounted to this. As a way to buy more development time for Dart and not have to throw him into the deep end, bringing in Wilson is fine, but as a way to actually stay competitive in the NFC East, it's pretty sus. Malik Nabers is the only real difference-maker on that side of the ball, though Tyrone Tracy seemed decent enough as the lead back for a guy who definitely wasn't Saquon Barkley, and on paper the Giants still have what should be one of the league's best pass rushes with Abdul Carter joining Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, et al. The team finished in the bottom half of the NFL in pressure rate, though, and while they were top 10 in sacks, they needed a top-10 blitz rate to get there. I thought the point of having a stacked group of edge rushers was so you wouldn't have to blitz? Hmm.

Last season's biggest surprise, the Commanders, will look to prove their 12 regular-season wins and run to the conference finals in the playoffs weren't flukes. There are certainly reasons for optimism, starting with Jayden Daniels. Yeah, he's skinny, and puts himself in danger too much with his running, yadda yadda yadda. I get the RGIII PTSD. Daniels didn't look like a one-year wonder, though, with his accuracy being even better than advertised. The front office recognized that protecting him was the most important thing on the offseason to-do list, trading for Laremy Tunsil and grabbing Josh Conerly 29th overall in the 2025 draft to provide Daniels with new bookend tackles. Seventh-rounder Jacory Croskey-Merritt made such an impression in camp that the Commanders shipped out Brian Robinson too, while Terry McLaurin got re-signed and Deebo Samuel tossed into to the mix. Scoring points shouldn't be a problem, even if Kliff Kingsbury's scheme goes through its usual Year 2 regression. The big question for Washington will come on the other side of the ball. Second-round cornerback Trey Amos could provide Dan Quinn with the back-end ballhawk he lacked last year, and the front seven got bolstered by the additions of veterans Javon Kinlaw, Deatrich Wise and Von Miller. Quinn's aggressive scheme thrives on turnovers and splash plays, and he might have the pieces in place to get the ball back to Daniels more often after the Commanders finished 2024 tied for 20th in takeaways.

Key Info

NYG injury report: WR Malik Nabers (questionable, back), LT Andrew Thomas (questionable, foot)
WAS injury report: WR Noah Brown (questionable, knee), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (questionable, knee)

Slight lean: TE Theo Johnson (WAS 26th in DVOA, t-26th in TDs allowed to TEs in 2024)
STRONG lean: QB Jayden Daniels (NYG 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in QB rating, 23rd in rushing yards allowed to QBs in 2024)
STRONG lean: WR Terry McLaurin (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)

Slight fade: RB Tyrone Tracy (WAS fourth in passing DVOA, first in receiving yards allowed to RBs in 2024)
Slight fade: TE Zach Ertz (NYG fourth in receiving yards, t-sixth in TDs allowed to TEs in 2024)

NFL weather report: 5-10 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 NYG, average score 20-20, average margin of victory six points. The last two season series have been sweeps — NYG in 2023 and WAS in 2024, with the latter by an average score of 24-20

The Scoop: Tracy gains 70 yards. Wilson throws for 220 yards and two TDs, one each to Nabers and Theo Johnson, but he also gets picked off twice and sacked four times. Austin Ekeler leads the WAS backfield with 80 yards, while JCM adds 60 yards and a score. Daniels throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey, while also running in a TD of his own. Commanders 34-17

LATE SUNDAY

Tennessee (+7.5) at Denver, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

After a brutal 3-14 first season under Brian Callahan, the Titans landed the top pick in a weak year for QBs, coming away with Cam Ward to be the new face of the offense. From a surface skills perspective, the best comp might be Justin Herbert — big, accurate arm and mobility without being a true running threat — but Ward is four inches shorter, and while Tennessee rebuilt its offensive line this offseason, staying on his feet could still be the rookie's biggest challenge. He also doesn't have a lot of help around him. Calvin Ridley's a solid WR1, but he'll turn 31 before the end of the year, and Tony Pollard is a similarly OK but not elite lead back. Beyond that, there isn't much. Even if Ward adjusts to the NFL quickly, he isn't positioned for immediate success. He's also facing a headwind from a defense that wasn't good at much of anything in 2024 under first-year DC Dennard Wilson. The unit added some pieces around the edges, like Cody Barton and Xavier Woods, but Ward figures to be playing from behind a lot.

The Commanders were the surprise of the NFC, but the Broncos' success was nearly as big a shocker in the AFC. The franchise was supposed to still be in cap hell after getting rid of Russell Wilson. Instead, Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix won double-digit games and made the playoffs, the first time a Denver team had done either since Peyton Manning's final season. Nix's rapid development was impressive, but DC Vance Joseph's unit were the real stars of the show, as they led the NFL in sacks and finishing in the top three in points allowed and yards per play allowed. Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga were brought in to bolster the defense, while Evan Engram gives Nix another weapon, and the backfield was re-made with veteran J.K. Dobbins and 2025 second-round pick RJ Harvey. The easy answer after a season like Denver's is to expect regression, but unless Nix completely collapses, I'm not sure where that regression might come from. The Broncos seem legit.

Key Info

TEN injury report: RB Tyjae Spears (IR, ankle), CB L'Jarius Sneed (questionable, knee)
DEN injury report: LB Dre Greenlaw (questionable, quadriceps)

Slight lean: RB Tony Pollard (DEN 31st in passing DVOA, 26th in receptions allowed, t-28th in receiving TDs allowed to RBs in 2024)
Slight lean: QB Bo Nix (TEN 25th in passing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards allowed, t-26th in rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2024)
Slight lean: RB RJ Harvey (TEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in receiving TDs allowed to RBs in 2024)

STRONG fade: TE Chig Okonkwo (DEN first in DVOA vs. TE in 2024)
STRONG fade: WR Troy Franklin (TEN third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2024)

NFL weather report: 20-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pollard gains 70 combined yards. Ward throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked five times, with Nik Bonitto celebrating his new contract by scoring a fumble return TD on one, but the rookie does find Ridley for a touchdown. Harvey leads the DEN backfield with 90 yards and a TD, while Dobbins adds 60 yards and a score. Nix throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Engram and Courtland Sutton. Broncos 35-13

San Francisco at Seattle (+2.5), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Well, here we go again. Christian McCaffrey was a late add to the injury report this week with a calf injury. Last year the "calf" injury surfaced in early August, and the Niners were super-confident he would play right up until the final hours before Week 1, when he suddenly was listed as inactive and then placed on IR ahead of Week 2 with Achilles tendinitis. It's now very fair to wonder whether trading for Brian Robinson a couple weeks ago was merely a move to add quality depth at a good price, or whether the team suspected they might need someone to fill in for CMac again. this could all be premature, of course — maybe he plays in Seattle and looks great — but at the very least, there are now workload concerns with him, as with Robinson and Isaac Guerendo both on the roster, San Francisco might elect to use a backfield committee to try to keep McCaffrey healthy. The passing game still has Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings (maybe), so it's not like the offense will grind to a halt without CMac, but his impact is undeniable — the 49ers finished in the top six in points per game in 2022 and 2023 while getting 27 games out of him, and fell to 13th last year when he suited up for only four games. The bigger concern is probably a defense that cratered last season, prompting the return of Robert Saleh as DC and the selection of defensive end Mykel Williams with the 11th overall pick, as well as three Day 2 picks being used on that side of the ball. Kyle Shanahan teams have been either feast or famine — in his eight seasons as head coach, he has four years with double-digit wins and playoff appearances, and four years with no more than six wins — so it could become clear pretty quickly which way this year's squad is headed.

After a few years hovering around .500 under Pete Carroll, new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald led the team to a 10-win season in 2024, but they fell just short of a playoff berth. The makeover continued this offseason. Geno Smith was sent to Vegas to reunite with Carroll, while Sam Darnold was signed to be the new starting QB and Klint Kubiak brought in to be OC after a brief apprenticeship under Shanahan in 2023. Cooper Kupp also replaces Tyler Lockett as the veteran WR support for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while the Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet duo in the backfield should be at least reliable. It's not an overly exciting group on offense, but it doesn't need to be if Macdonald's efforts to turn the Hawks into the west-coast Ravens continue pay off. The unit took a big step forward in 2024, and while the roster still looks a little thin at cornerback, a few more sacks and turnovers from the front seven might catapult Seattle's D into elite territory.

Key Info

SF injury report: RB Christian McCaffrey (questionable, calf), WR Jauan Jennings (questionable, calf), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), RG Dominick Puni (questionable, knee), S Malik Mustapha (PUP, knee)
SEA injury report: no significant injuries

Slight lean: RB Christian McCaffrey (SEA 18th in passing DVOA, 22nd in receiving yards allowed to RBs in 2024)
Slight lean: WR Cooper Kupp (SF 23rd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)

STRONG fade: WR Jauan Jennings (SEA second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
STRONG fade: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)

NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 6-5 SF, average score 27-22 SF, average margin of victory 11 points. SF had won six straight meetings, including a 41-23 trouncing in the 2022 wild-card round, before SEA's 20-17 win in Week 11 of last season

The Scoop: Guerendo leads the SF backfield with 60 yards. Purdy throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Kittle and Pearsall. Walker churns out 80 yards and a score. Darnold throws for 230 yards and TDs to JSN and Kupp. Seahawks 21-20

Detroit (+2.5) at Green Bay, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Disappointing end to the 2024 season aside, the future's looking pretty spiffy for Dan Campbell's Lions. The team is stacked with talent on both sides of the ball, and while there's been the predictable drain on the coaching side that comes with success, new OC John Morton has worked under an impressive array of football brains, including Sean Payton last year, while new DC Kelvin Sheppard was an internal hire after being the linebackers coach during Campbell's entire Detroit tenure. Both guys have a lot of toys to work with. The offense is built around the Jahmyr Gibbs-David Montgomery duo in the backfield, but Jared Goff has Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta to chuck it to, and the team may have found a gem in the third round in Isaac TeSlaa. The O-line did lose Frank Ragnow to retirement and Kevin Zeitler to the Titans, but Graham Glasgow is sliding over to center while second-round pick Tate Ratledge will step in at guard. On defense, a healthy Aidan Hutchinson could change the equation for the entire unit, while 28th overall pick Tyleik Williams bolsters the interior of the defensive line. It'll be almost impossible for their not to be some regression after a 15-win season, especially with the rest of the NFC North working to catch up, but the Lions will still be tough to dethrone.

Speaking of NFC North teams getting better, the Packers may have committed some elderly abuse by taking advantage of Jerry Jones as flagrantly as they did, but nobody forced him to be his own GM. Micah Parsons joins a pass rush that finished in the top 10 in sacks last year without him, and while losing Kenny Clark in the trade doesn't help DC Jeff Hafley's run defense, they can probably manage. First-round pick Matthew Golden might finally give the team a true WR1, allowing the team's pack of WR2 to settle into more comfortable roles, and while it's an odd-numbered year for Josh Jacobs, numerology is about the only thing suggesting he's headed for a big downturn. Jordan Love's numbers did take a step back in 2024, but largely due to a number of minor, nagging injuries — his 8.0 YPA was a top-5 mark in the NFL, and if he can combine that with a bit better efficiency, the whole passing game could soar. The pieces are in place for the Packers' first division title since 2021 and true Super Bowl contention. It's just up to Matt LaFleur to fit them together... starting with how to solve the puzzle of beating the Lions.

Key Info

DET injury report: no significant injuries
GB injury report: WR Jayden Reed (questionable, foot), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, calf), WR Savion Williams (questionable, hamstring), WR Christian Watson (PUP, knee), C Elgton Jenkins (questionable, hip), EDGE Micah Parsons (questionable, back), CB Nate Hobbs (questionable, knee)

STRONG lean: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (GB 30th in rushing DVOA, 30th in receiving yards allowed to RBs in 2024)
STRONG lean: RB Josh Jacobs (DET 31st in rushing DVOA, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RBs in 2024)

Slight fade: WR Jameson Williams (GB 11th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
STRONG fade: TE Tucker Kraft (DET second in DVOA, third in receiving yards allowed, t-fourth in receiving TDs allowed vs. TE)

NFL weather report: 0-5 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 DET, average score 26-25 GB, average margin of victory 10 points. DET has won six of the last seven meetings, including three straight at Lambeau Field.

The Scoop: Gibbs scampers for 120 yards and a score, while Montgomery also gets into the end zone. Goff throws for 320 yards but only one TD, hitting LaPorta. Jacobs responds with 120 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Love throws for 270 yards and a second score to Golden. Lions 30-24

Houston (+2.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

For the second consecutive season, the Texans won 10 games, won the AFC South and then watched their offense fail them in the divisional round. The defense has improved a great deal under DeMeco Ryans, but it still seems a little less than the sum of its parts for a unit led by Derek Stingley, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. It may just be a case of the surface stats not catching up to the actual performance though — Houston was fourth in yards per play allowed in 2024, despite finishing 14th in PPG allowed. Bobby Slowik was let go as OC, the scapegoat for injuries and an offensive line that got overhauled in the offseason, and new coordinator Nick Caley was a long-time Bill Belichick assistant in New England before spending the last couple years on Sean McVay's staff, which is a couple pretty decent coaches to learn from. His top job will be keeping C.J. Stroud upright — after the QB got sacked 38 times as a rookie, he was brought down 52 times last year. Only Caleb Williams got sacked more often. Nico Collins remains his top target, supported by newcomers Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, plus veteran tight end Dalton Schultz. The backfield could be a mess, though. Joe Mixon's status for 2025 is very much up in the air, and Nick Chubb didn't look like he had much left in the tank last year with Cleveland. If Chubb can't carry the load, a committee with Dameon Pierce and rookie Woody Marks could result. The star power on the roster should be enough to carry the Texans to another AFC South crown, but Ryans might find himself on the hot seat if the team can't rise to the next level as a true contender in the conference.

The Rams' ability to stay not just competitive but a threat under Sean McVay has been remarkable. The team retooled in 2022, but otherwise their worst season has been 9-7 in 2019, the only other time they missed the playoffs. Stars like Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp have moved on, but the system just keeps churning out wins. This year's edition still has Matthew Stafford under center, maybe for the last time, while Davante Adams was brought in to be Puka Nacua's running buddy downfield. The young pass rush didn't actually post numbers commensurate with the media exposure they got, but Braden Fiske and Verse combined for 13.0 sacks as rookies last year, while Byron Young has 15.5 sacks and Kobie Turner has 17.0 through their first two campaigns. Assuming the sophomores take a step forward, this unit could be making life miserable all season for QBs. Especially ones behind rebuilt offensive lines, and running a scheme McVay should know very well ...

Key Info

HOU injury report: RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Christian Kirk (questionable, hamstring), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), RG Ed Ingram (questionable, abdomen), EDGE Denico Autry (PUP, knee) 
LAR injury report: CB Ahkello Witherspoon (questionable, knee)

Slight lean: QB C.J. Stroud (LAR 24th in passing DVOA, t-26th in passing TDs allowed in 2024)
Slight lean: QB Matthew Stafford (LAR 10th in offensive passing DVOA, HOU 30th in passing TDs allowed in 2024)

Slight fade: WR Jaylin Noel (LAR second in passing yards per game allowed to WR3 in 2024)
STRONG fade: RB Kyren Williams (HOU third in rushing DVOA, second in passing DVOA, t-sixth in rushing TDs allowed to RBs in 2024)

NFL weather report: indoors

The Scoop: Chubb puts together 70 yards and a touchdown. Stroud throws for 220 yards and a TD to Collins but gets sacked five times and throws a pick-six to Quentin Lake. Kyren Williams jets for 80 yards. Stafford throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Adams and Jordan Whittington. Rams 27-23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Baltimore (+1) at Buffalo, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The week's heavyweight bout runs it back from last year's divisional round, when the Bills squeaked by the Ravens 27-25 thanks to Mark Andrews dropping a sure two-point conversion in the final two minutes. (Sorry to any Baltimore fans who didn't want to have to re-live that, but it really does speak to how evenly matched these teams are.) The Ravens didn't feel the need to change much in the offseason, and it's easy to see why. Until defenses figure out how to stop Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson out of the backfield, why mess with what's working? Henry's season was incredible, but the context — as a 30-year-old back with more than 2,000 career carries on his resume — made it truly historic. He almost recorded his second career 2,000-yard campaign, scored double-digit TDs for the seventh straight season, and set a career high with an astounding 5.9 yards per carry. Henry nearly reached 1,000 rushing yards just on his yards after contact, with his 909 being the most in a season since Jonathan Taylor erupted for 941 in 2021. The last back to pound out more than 1,000 yards after contact? Yup, it was King Henry in 2020. It seems impossible that he could repeat that performance at his age and with all the accumulated wear and tear, but it seemed impossible for him to do what he did in 2024 too, so why the heck not? Meanwhile, Jackson is out there posting MVP-caliber numbers like it's no big deal. The defense stumbled early under first-year OC Zach Orr, but by the end of the season he had the unit humming, and the Ravens wound up second in sacks and top 10 in points per game allowed and yards per play allowed. If that momentum carries forward into 2025, they could finally be headed back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2012.

One of the biggest obstacles to the Ravens representing the AFC at Levi's Stadium, of course, will be the team that derailed their playoff run last year. The Bills also kept things largely intact from last season, though it took a while to work out a new contract with James Cook. Josh Allen took home his first MVP Award (denying Lamar a repeat) while producing at least 40 total TDs for the fifth consecutive season and tossing a career-low six INTs, but after dominating on both sides of the ball to begin the 2020s, the defense took a step back statistically in 2024, staying afloat largely via 32 takeaways, one off the league lead. The team's first five draft picks this year were all used on that side of the ball, but 30th overall pick Maxwell Hairston won't be able to help the secondary right away due to a knee sprain. The arc for the season might be similar to Baltimore's last year, with some early struggles until the kids get up to speed. Until then, Allen will just have to keep out-scoring the opposition.

Key Info

BAL injury report: TE Isaiah Likely (questionable, foot)
BUF injury report: WR Keon Coleman (questionable, groin), K Tyler Bass (questionable, hip), CB Tre'Davious White (questionable, groin), CB Maxwell Hairston (IR, knee)

Slight lean: WR Rashod Bateman (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Khalil Shakir (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

Slight fade: WR DeAndre Hopkins (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
STRONG fade: RB James Cook (BAL fourth in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards allowed to RBs in 2024)

NFL weather report: 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry batters his way to 130 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 250 yards and a score to Zay Flowers while running in a touchdown of his own. Cook picks up 70 yards. Allen also runs for one score and throws for 290 yards and two others, hitting Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, but Matt Prater misses a late field-goal attempt. Ravens 28-27

MONDAY NIGHT

Minnesota at Chicago (+1.5), o/u 44.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Vikings will have their third quarterback under center for Week 1 in three seasons, but it all feels according to plan for Kevin O'Connell. J.J. McCarthy was drafted last year to be the team's new franchise QB, but when he got hurt in training camp, Minnesota simply pivoted to Sam Darnold and didn't miss a beat, reviving his career in the process. O'Connell's reputation as a quarterback whisperer is so entrenched at this point that Daniel Jones got the benefit of it without even playing a regular-season snap for the Vikes. Of course, it helps to build that sort of continuity when each QB has had Justin Jefferson to throw to. He's topped 1,500 receiving yards in each of his last three healthy seasons, racking up 28 TDs along the way, and at least in terms of talent, it's hard to argue with his status as the top wideout in the NFL — really, only Ja'Marr Chase can stake a rival claim. Jefferson could be in for heavier than usual volume out of the gate with Jordan Addison suspended the first three games of the year, as McCarthy's only other options are tight end T.J. Hockenson, a repatriated Adam Thielen and a clutch of decent depth wideouts. O'Connell might instead decide to lean a little more heavily on his backfield instead, though, to ease McCarthy into starting duties, and the Vikings added Jordan Mason to the roster this offseason to help take the load off Aaron Jones. Whatever route they take, it'll probably lead to points.

Technically, the Caleb Williams era began last season in Chicago, but considering he worked with two head coaches and three (!!!) offensive coordinators, I think we can just go ahead and give him a mulligan. The 2024 first overall pick got an immediate and massive upgrade on his support network when Ben Johnson left Detroit to be the Bears' new head coach, with Declan Doyle (who spent the last two years as Sean Payton's TE coach) as his new OC. It's still a little fuzzy whether D'Andre Swift is the guy Johnson booted out of the Lions' backfield or the guy he regretfully let slip away, but the fact that the only draft capital Chicago used on a RB came in the seventh round strong suggests the latter. the Williams also got two new targets in 10th overall pick Colston Loveland and second-round pick Luther Burden, a talent investment that says the team is all in on the QB. Dennis Allen comes over as DC following his stint as the head coach in New Orleans, and while you can question how good he was as the man in charge, his defenses with the Saints were generally top-10 units. Allen has some good veteran players to work with at all three levels of the defense, and assuming Williams begins to show that he's the real deal, this is a team that could take big steps forward on both sides of the ball. It's possible there will be no weak links at all in the NFC North this year.

Key Info

MIN injury report: WR Jordan Addison (out, suspension), LT Christian Darrisaw (questionable, knee), S Harrison Smith (questionable, illness)
CHI injury report: RB Roschon Johnson (questionable, foot), RB Kyle Monangai (questionable, hamstring), LB T.J. Edwards (questionable, hamstring), CB Jaylon Johnson (questionable, groin)

STRONG lean: RB Aaron Jones / Jordan Mason (CHI 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed to RBs in 2024)
Slight lean: TE Colston Loveland (MIN 19th in receptions allowed, 18th in receiving yards allowed to TEs in 2024)

STRONG fade: WR Jalen Nailor (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2024)
STRONG fade: QB Caleb Williams (MIN first in passing DVOA, second in QB rating against in 2024)

NFL weather report: 5-10 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 MIN, average score 24-17 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. MIN has won five straight meetings at Soldier Field, with CHI's last home victory coming in Week 4 of the 2019 season — a 16-6 slog in which Chase Daniel threw the game's only TD pass.

The Scoop: Jones gains 70 yards, while Mason adds 50 and a score. McCarthy throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Hockenson and Thielen. Swift secures 70 yards and a TD. Williams throws for 210 yards and two scores, one each to Loveland and Rome Odunze, but a late fumble costs the Bears a chance to tie or win it. Vikings 27-24

THURSDAY NIGHT

Dallas (+8) at Philadelphia, o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Maybe one day, the Cowboys will have a smooth offseason, or at least someone in charge who doesn't wear three hats as an owner/GM/dictator. The Micah Parsons trade was a dumb one from a "trying to win football games" perspective, and while you can maybe excuse it from a salary cap perspective, that just puts the onus on Dak Prescott's absurd contract, and years-long negotiating failures that also had the team paying more than it needed to for the likes of CeeDee Lamb. Even so, other franchises seem to figure out ways to keep kicking the salary-cap can down the road while their competitive window is open. Instead, Dallas decided that getting rid of an elite pass rusher on a Hall of Fame track was the best option. Uh huh. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer has a long, but remarkably undistinguished, track record as an OC, and while the term "nepo baby" doesn't get used much in the NFL, he might be the poster boy for it. He did oversee a couple top running attacks with the Jets and Seahawks, to be fair, and without benefit of an elite RB in either backfield (those were the Chris Carson days in Seattle, post-Marshawn Lynch), but Schottenheimer heads into 2025 expecting Javonte Williams and his 3.6 yards per carry since his knee injury to be a viable option, which is asking a lot. A healthy Dak Prescott should still be about to generate some offense, and George Pickens gives him a true downfield weapon to complement Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson, but new DC Matt Eberflus isn't known for scheming up a strong pass rush to replace Parsons. Instead, his units tend to boast high tackle totals from his linebackers, but he may not have the personnel in the middle he needs to make things click unless DeMarvion Overshown proves he can overcome a second serious knee injury. It's a mostly mismatched roster all around in Dallas aside from the passing game, which doesn't bode well for 2025.

The defending champs, on the other hand, remain a well-oiled machine under Howie Roseman, even as they dealt with the usual talent drain that comes from success in the NFL. Vic Fangio returns as DC, but last year's OC Kellen Moore left for a head-coaching gig in New Orleans and was replaced by Kevin Patullo, who's been in the organization since 2021 as the passing game coordinator. Mekhi Becton left a hole at right guard that could be filled by 2023 third-round pick Tyler Steen, and Lane Johnson is a year older, but the Eagles' O-line is still one of the better units in the league. The biggest turnover was in the secondary, though, as a bunch of aging veterans got cleared out to open up snaps for younger players like Cooper DeJean and Kelee Ringo. The offense's skill players, on the other hand, are basically unchanged other than on the margins. Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are as formidable a quartet as the league has to offer, and while there are obvious concerns about regression or injury for Saquon after his absurd 2024 workload, the Brotherly Shove is at least still legal. While you can come up with reasons why they won't get back to the Super Bowl for the third time in the last four years, it's also very easy to imagine them just rolling right through the NFC once again.

Key Info

DAL injury report: LB DeMarvion Overshown (PUP, knee)
PHI injury report: LB Nakobe Dean (PUP, knee)

Slight Lean: WR CeeDee Lamb (PHI 24th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
STRONG Lean: RB Saquon Barkley (DAL 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2024)
STRONG Lean: QB Jalen Hurts (DAL 32nd in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2024)

Slight Fade: WR A.J. Brown (DAL ninth in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)
STRONG Fade: WR George Pickens (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR2, second in deep throw DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)

NFL weather report: 30-40 percent chance of rain

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 26-26, average margin of victory 18 points. This NFC East rivalry has a history of blowouts — the last three games, and six of the last 10, have been decided by 20 points or more, including a combined 75-13 mauling across both games of Philly's sweep in 2024.

The Scoop: Williams manages 60 yards in his Cowboys debut, while KaVontae Turpin scores on a jet sweep. Prescott throws for 230 yards and a TD to Lamb. Barkley thunders for 140 combined yards and two touchdowns. Hurts also adds a score on the ground while throwing for 220 yards and a TD to Smith. Eagles 34-20

FRIDAY NIGHT

Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (+3) in Sao Paulo, o/u 45.5
Friday, 8 p.m. EDT

There's no empirical evidence of a Super Bowl hangover, but February's loss to the Eagles did feel like it might have been the end of an era for Kansas City. The team has represented the AFC in five of the last six Super Bowls, winning three, but the offense is a shell of what it was — KC led the league with 6.4 yards per play in 2022; last year that mark had tumbled to 5.1, ranking a lowly 23rd — and Travis Kelce appears close to riding off into the sunset to marry a showgirl. DC Steve Spagnuolo and a defense led by Nick Bolton, George Karlaftis, Trent McDuffie and Chris Jones are now the engine of the team, with Patrick Mahomes still capable of great things, just maybe not as often. The AFC West is getting more competitive too, and while I won't go so far as to say their 10-season streak of division titles is in serious jeopardy yet, it wouldn't be a huge shock if the winner didn't get determined until the final week or two rather than being a romp. Having Xavier Worthy turn out to be Tyreek Hill 2.0, with Rashee Rice (once he's finally allowed back on the field) being the replacement for Kelce as Mahomes' most dangerous weapon, would go a long way toward making those sorts of concerns seem silly.

One of the teams trying to topple Andy Reid's crew is the one coached by Jim Harbaugh. (Side note: how ridiculously stacked is the coaching pedigree in the AFC West now? Reid, Harbaugh, Sean Payton and Pete Carroll all have winning percentages above .600 in the NFL and have a combined five Super Bowls rings, with five other conference championships, on their resumes.) The Chargers won 11 games last year, their highest total since 2018, but a poor showing in the wild-card round against the Texans kept Harbaugh tinkering with the roster ahead of his second season in charge. Gone is the Ravens retread backfield of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, with OC Greg Roman now having former Steeler lead back Najee Harris and 2025 22nd overall pick Omarion Hampton to lead the run-heavy offense. Justin Herbert is coming off a season in which he threw only three interceptions on 504 attempts in 17 regular-season games, and his receiving corps got both younger and older, as Keenan Allen came back home this offseason to support last year's rookie sensation Ladd McConkey, while 2025 second-round pick Tre' Harris and fifth-round pick KeAndre Lambert-Smith fight for Quentin Johnston's spot. It's a potentially strong passing game, if it didn't have a firm ceiling due to Roman's scheme. The loss of Rashawn Slater could hurt the unit's overall efficiency, but maybe no roster was better equipped to handle the loss of an All-Pro left tackle as Joe Alt simply flipped over from right tackle, and adequate veteran Trey Pipkins got plugged in at RT. Harbaugh's defense led the league in fewest points allowed — a ranking more due to a slower pace of play than the team's good, but not great, No. 13 rankings in yards per play and total turnovers — and a ground-and-pound philosophy with occasional splash plays is a formula for consistent success. Whether it's enough to dethrone KC is a very different question.

One final note on this one, since the game's in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Kansas City is 3-0 in international games, including a 24-17 win over the Bolts in Mexico City in 2019. The Chargers are 1-2, with their only win coming back in 2018 (20-19 over the Titans in London.)

Key Info

KC injury report: WR Rashee Rice (out, suspension)
LAC injury report: LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee)

STRONG lean: WR Hollywood Brown (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2024)
Slight lean: WR Ladd McConkey (KC 26th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2024)

STRONG fade: RB Isiah Pacheco (LAC first in passing DVOA vs. RB, first in rushing TDs allowed in 2024)
Slight fade: RB Omarion Hampton (KC third in passing DVOA vs. RB, seventh in YPC allowed in 2024)

NFL weather report: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 24-22 KC, average margin of victory six points. KC has won seven consecutive meetings, and seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a single score.

The Scoop: Pacheco grinds out 70 yards. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Worthy, Brown and Kelce. Hampton manages 80 combined yards in his pro debut. Herbert throws for 260 yards and two TDs, one each to McConkey and Tyler Conklin, while a JuJu Smith-Schuster fumble leads to a Daiyan Henley score. Cameron Dicker boots the game-winning FG late in the fourth quarter. Chargers 27-24

2024 record: 183-89 (.673), 141-128-3 ATS (.524), 144-126-2 o/u (.533)