NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 11

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 11

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 11

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

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NFL Week 11 Odds

BYES: Falcons, Saints, Colts, Patriots

Week 11 Schedule

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens -3.5 O/U 44.5 OPENED BENGALS -1.0/44.0 

Dallas Cowboys -11.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 42.0 OPENED COWBOYS -3.5/41.0

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -3.5 O/U 38.5 OPENED BROWNS -1.5/38.0

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions -9.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED LIONS -5.0/45.0

Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 at Green Bay Packers O/U 44.0 OPENED CHARGERS -2.5/42.0

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans -5.0 O/U 48.5 OPENED TEXANS -1.5/47.0

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 O/U 40.0 OPENED JAGUARS -5.0/40.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins -10.0 O/U 47.5 OPENED DOLPHINS -5.5/48.0 

New York Giants at Washington Commanders -10.0 O/U 37.0 OPENED GIANTS -1.5/37.0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers -10.5 O/U 41.5 OPENED 49ERS -7.5/42.5

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills -6.5 O/U 40.5 OPENED BILLS -3.5/48.5

Seattle Seahawks -3.0 at Los Angeles Rams O/U 44.5 OPENED SEAHAWKS -1.5/46.5

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos -2.0 O/U 42.5 OPENED BRONCOS -2.0/43.0

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED CHIEFS -3.0/47.5

Week 11 Key Injury News 

Browns - QB Deshaun Watson will get MRI on left ankle Monday; CB Denzel Ward (neck)

Dolphins - RB De'Von Achane is designated for return from IR

Falcons - QB Taylor Heinicke injured his hamstring Sunday, Desmond Ridder took over

Saints - QB Derek Carr (shoulder/concussion); Saints are on a bye this week, CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle), WR Michael Thomas (knee)

Chargers - WR Keenan Allen (shoulder) questionable

Ravens - OL Ronnie Stanley (knee)

Vikings - RB Alexander Mattison (concussion)

Steelers - LB Kwon Alexander (leg)

Patriots - QB Mac Jones (unkown, x-rays)

Week 11 observations

Highest point spread - Cowboys/Panthers -10.5 / -11.0

Lowest point spread - Vikings/Broncos -1.5 / -2.0

Highest total - Cardinals/Texans 49.0

Lowest total - Giants/Commanders 36.5

Four games with totals over 46.0 - Bears/Lions, Cardinals/Texans, Raiders/Dolphins, Eagles/Chiefs  

Six games with totals of 41.5 or less - Cowboys/Panthers, Steelers/Browns, Giants/Commanders, Titans/Jaguars, Bucs/49ers, Bills/Jets  

Four games with lines at least -9.5 or higher - Cowboys/Panthers, Lions/Bears, Raiders/Dolphins, Giants/Commanders, Bucs/49ers  

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

It is hard to imagine this game originally opened Cowboys -3.5 as so much has changed from the summer until Week 11. The Cowboys have feasted on bad teams all season and just destroyed the hapless Giants, 49-17. The Panthers are coming off a Thursday night loss at the Bears, 16-13. 

Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will be full of Cowboys fans almost making it a home game for them. I am actually surprised this line is just -10.5 or -11.0 and could still see some steam coming in to push it up to close to -13 or a full -14. 

The total opened 41.0 and has moved to 42.0 based on the Giants result. The Cowboys should be able to put up 30-plus points again and the issue is how many points the Panthers will score. They will have to get at least 10 which could be stretching it. The Panthers' team total could really take a hit if the Cowboys go to -13 or -14. 

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement: New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Most of the games with the biggest line moves will feature one of the worst teams in the league and in this case it is the Giants. The Giants were actually favored by -1.5 in this game when it opened, but is now all the way up to Commanders -10.0. 

Ravaged with injuries, this team is just playing out the string and is the No. 1 target to go against in Survivor pools. The dangerous part is when a team is so bad, that it puts the favorite in unchartered territory. The last time Washington was favored by at least 10 points was Oct. 15, 2017. They are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 when favored by 10 points or more.

The Commanders should not be favored by double digits against anyone, but when your opponent was outgained 640-172 in total yards that is what happens. The biggest issue in a game like this is motivation and if the heavy favorite will come out flat. This is a home game and divisional matchup, so the Commanders will be ready, but laying -10 with them is a risky proposition.

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

The Lions opened -5.0 and it has steadily risen to -10.5 as of Monday afternoon. The total has risen from 45.0 to 46.5 . The last time the Lions were favored by at least 10 points was Nov. 12, 2017.  The Bears are 3-17 straight up in their last 20 games and 0-4 in their last four when at least 10-point underdogs. The Lions are 7-3 overall and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games. It is hard to imagine how the Bears will be able to keep up with the Lions' offense.

NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins opened -5.5 home favorites and it is now up to -11.0 after coming into the week at -10.0. All of the turmoil that surrounded the Raiders and their former head coach Josh McDaniels has been transformed into back-to-back wins against the Giants and Jets (gulp). 

The Dolphins come into the game off a bye and have been at least 10-point home favorites three times in the last year, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread. The Raiders plan on running Josh Jacobs heavy and that could keep the Dolphins off the field slowing the game down.

NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams are coming off difficult home losses in Week 10, with the Ravens blowing a double-digit lead at home to the Browns and the Bengals losing at home to the Texans. Now this divisional battle takes place on a short week, with the Ravens 3.5-point home favorite after the Bengals opened at -1.0 in the summer. 

This is a must win game for both teams, but even more so for the Bengals who lost to the Ravens at home and are 5-4. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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