Best NFL Week 13 PrizePicks Plays
We will kick things off with a little Thanksgiving recap, and let's just say we didn't leave with many leftovers.
My biggest mistake was taking the under on Josh Jacobs way too early in the process. Jacobs still went over the 66.5 rushing yards he closed at thanks to an early 29-yard jaunt, Emanuel Wilson being less involved than expected and Green Bay controlling the game throughout, but I got in at 55.5 rushing yards. Unders are almost always better right before kickoff -- especially on holidays when casual player inflate overs. File that away for a few weeks from now.
We were in on Lamar Jackson, but if he can't get right against the Bengals, it might just not be his year. He will get another crack at them in two weeks.
At least Isaiah Likely delivered. Also for the mental notes -- take tight ends against the Cincinnati defense.
With Turkey Day behind us, it's time to reset and chase another sweep like we notched last Monday.
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 7:15 AM ET Sunday.
Picks to Click
Devin Neal 39.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
I've been waiting for this moment for about a month -- basically since Alvin Kamara first became a regular on the injury report. Well, Kamara is finally being held out, and it's Neal's chance to shine. The wait could have been painful if the matchup was poor, but luckily he's getting his shot in a great spot for running backs.
The rookie was a very successful bell-cow back at Kansas, and he produced despite rarely having an offensive-line advantage. We know the skill set is there -- especially the yards-after-contact ability. He now gets his first chance to fill the lead role against a Dolphins defense that ranks fifth worst in yards per carry. Tyler Shough appears more than capable of keeping the offense moving and keeping the Saints in games, which gives us the realistic upside of a 20-carry afternoon from Neal.
Quinshon Judkins + 
Christian McCaffrey 138.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
It might not snow as much in Cleveland as anticipated, but it's going to be dreary and windy and interceptions are a concern for both quarterbacks after the last couple weeks, so look for plenty of activity on the ground.
San Francisco's run defense hasn't been the same since they lost Fred Warner, and that Judkins wildcat package looked effective near the goal line. Given the conditions, we might see it used in other parts of the field. The Browns have a stout run defense, but they haven't faced a back as talented as McCaffrey. He and the Kyle Shanahan rushing scheme present a completely different challenge.
All signs point to both teams leaning heavily on the run, making this combined total very reachable.
Gabe Davis 21.5 Receiving Yards (MORE)
We're going with Davis again after he nearly found the end zone for us a couple of weeks ago, but this time simply banking on the yardage. His snap share jumped to 55 percent in Week 12, and he once again showed his connection with Josh Allen. Even though he only saw two targets, both came in crucial third-down situations, which is exactly what you want to see.
Pittsburgh is giving up all kinds of yardage through the air, and with the threat of Allen's legs, defenders can get caught staring into the backfield in zone coverage, which opens up some opportunities downfield.
I'll also be laddering this one and taking Davis for an anytime touchdown.
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