This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks and Best Player Props for Week 17
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Player Anytime Touchdowns
Deebo Samuel -115 (DraftKings)
I'm not sure I've seen a bigger line than Christian McCaffrey -425 for an anytime touchdown this season but given his success, that number is warranted. Samuel is obviously a much better wager this week at -115 and the 49ers are 14-point favorites on the road in a game with an over/under of 49.5. Samuel has a touchdown in five out of his last seven games and has shown he can get into the end zone rushing or catching the ball. I'd look at skipping on the McCaffrey prop and taking Samuel, George Kittle (+150 FanDuel) and Brandon Aiyuk (+115 DraftKings) and hope at least two of them hit if you want to have some real fun with this game.
Chris Olave +220 (FanDuel)
This is only +160 on other sites so make sure you hit up FanDuel for this prop. Tampa has been pretty bad against opposing wide receivers ranking 29th in the league in defending them. Olave looked completely healthy last week finishing with nine catches for 123 yards and should pace the Saints in targets again this week.
K.J. Osborn +255 (DraftKings)
It seems like as I write this (Saturday AM) that Jordan Addison is a 50/50 shot to play this week. If he's out, Osborn would likely be the second receiving option to Justin Jefferson, especially with T.J. Hockenson out. Josh Oliver (+340 FanDuel) is also an intriguing option, but Osborn seems like the safer play considering the odds. It's worth noting Osborn finished last season strong scoring a touchdown in four of his last six games.
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Player Props
Cedrick Wilson OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards -110 (FanDuel)
I'm not sure if Vegas is missing something here or if this is just a sucker bet. Jaylen Waddle is out this week and that should mean Wilson occupies the No.2 receiver spot. Wilson had 42 receiving yards last week (this number is 35.5 elsewhere) and it makes sense to pencil him in for 5-7 targets with Waddle out. Baltimore only ranks 12th against opposing wide receivers so while the first instinct would be to avoid this matchup, it isn't as bad as one would think. Here's my favorite prop of the week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 15.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)
This is really bad analysis as this is a gut feeling, and after it was "Justin Watson week" last week I think it'll be MVS' turn this week. Getting to some real analysis, Valdes-Scantling had the most snaps of any wide receiver last week (despite only getting one target) and hit this over in the previous three games before last week. On paper, Cincinnati is the best matchup for wide receivers the Chiefs have had since Week 11, when they faced the Eagles. I'd look at doing a same-game parlay with alternative odds with an anytime touchdown with him this week as well.
