NFL Picks: Backing the Buccaneers and Jets

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Updated on November 28, 2013 4:24AM EST

I don't know what planet I was on the last two weeks, but somehow I botched the calculation of both Stopa's and Del Don's records. I awarded Dalton an extra win for some reason (though his loss totals were correct), and I just forgot to add an entire week of Stopa's to the spread sheet (and omitted a tie) making him look even worse than he is - I know, it's hard to believe that was even possible. I also omitted to add Erickson's best-bet tie from two weeks ago to his total there. I've gone back and fixed all of that, and now the standings should be accurate.

After a 10-4 week, I'm only one game behind DDD, but nine behind Erickson. Stopa is actually only 18 games under .500 which is bad, but it's nowhere near the historic levels for which I had him on pace. I sincerely apologize to Stopa and his family for the trauma I caused them heading into this holiday season. (But then again he shouldn't have talked yang about his record from last year heading into the season.)

We have two consensus picks this weeks - the Jets and Bucs.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Packers +6.5 at Lions	Lions	Packers	Lions	Lions	Packers
Raiders +8.5 at Cowboys	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Cowboys	Raiders
Steelers +3 at Ravens	Ravens	Steelers	Ravens	Ravens	Steelers
Titans +4.5 at Colts	Colts	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
Broncos -5.5

We have two consensus picks this weeks - the Jets and Bucs.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Packers +6.5 at Lions	Lions	Packers	Lions	Lions	Packers
Raiders +8.5 at Cowboys	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Cowboys	Raiders
Steelers +3 at Ravens	Ravens	Steelers	Ravens	Ravens	Steelers
Titans +4.5 at Colts	Colts	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
Broncos -5.5 at Chiefs	Broncos	Chiefs	Chiefs	Broncos	Broncos
Jaguars +7 at Browns	Jaguars	Jaguars	Browns	Jaguars	Jaguars
Buccaneers +8.5 at Panthers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Bears +1 at Vikings	Vikings	Bears	Vikings	Bears	Bears
Cardinals +3 at Eagles	Cardinals	Cardinals	Eagles	Cardinals	Eagles
Dolphins +1.5 at Jets	Jets	Jets	Jets	Jets	Jets
Falcons +3.5 at Bills	Bills	Falcons	Bills	Bills	Falcons
Rams +8.5 at 49ers	Rams	49ers	Rams	Rams	Rams
Patriots -7.5 at Texans	Patriots	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans
Bengals +1.5 at Chargers	Chargers	Bengals	Chargers	Bengals	Chargers
Giants -1.5 at Redskins	Giants	Redskins	Giants	Redskins	Giants
Saints +5.5 at Seahawks	Saints	Saints	Seahawks	Saints	Saints
Best Bet	Bills	Jets	Browns	Buccaneers	Broncos
Last Week's Record	7-7	6-8	10-4	8-6	8-6
2013 Record	95-73-8	80-88-8	86-82-8	75-93-8	87-81-8
Best Bet Record	8-3-1	4-8	5-7	8-4	4-8
2013 Consensus Pick Record	14-20-3
2012 Record	110-140-6	124-126-6	121-129-6	143-107-6	123-127-6
2011 Record	121-128-7	134-115-7	124-125-7	123-126-7	127-122-7
2010 Record	129-122-5	134-117-5	126-125-5	136-115-5	134-117-5
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have two consensus picks: the Buccaneers and the Jets. Last week we went 1-0 to put us at 14-20-3 on the season.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	Bet on the Jets at home, bet against them on the road. They're my second best bet... Patriots line is almost begging you to take the Texans, especially with the hook. But I can't go with them anymore... Same with the Redskins - I have a hard time being rational with them, even with the Giants as a road favorite... The Bills are on an upward arc, and the Falcons clearly are not. They may have fought valiantly against the Saints - but that was a prime time game against a divisional rival, where they were home in a short week. I love the Bills' defense for the last four weeks of the fantasy season, assuming you don't use Week 17. Toughest games for me were TEN-IND, PIT-BAL and GB-DET.
Pianowski	Jets are a different team at home, with a 4-1 record and wins over the Patriots and Saints. Asking them to beat an ordinary Miami team doesn't sound like much.
Liss	Tough slate, went back and forth on a bunch of these. I think the Browns will bounce back against a weak Jacksonville squad who they should shut down. I also like the Lions even though it's a square play, the Texans and the Bills (sharps are on the Falcons for some reason I can't fathom). I agree with Pianow and Erickson on the Jets, too.
Stopa	Tampa is 3-1 in its last four games, the only loss a close one in Seattle. They're not a doormat by any means, and I like them getting more than a touchdown against a Panthers team that may be looking ahead to the Saints. You're all fading me at this point anyway (especially where all four staff disagree with me, where my record on those games is something like 2-50), so not much point in explaining any more.
Del Don	I'll rarely make a road favorite my best bet, but I feel Denver is much better than Kansas City. Moreover, the Chiefs already fading defense could be without both Justin Houston and Tamba Hali this week.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.